Developing An Impact Based Combined Drought Index For Monitoring Crop Yield Anomalies In The Upper Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia
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Developing An Impact Based Combined Drought Index For Monitoring Crop Yield Anomalies In The Upper Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia
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Author : Yared A. Bayissa
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2018-10-26
Developing An Impact Based Combined Drought Index For Monitoring Crop Yield Anomalies In The Upper Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia written by Yared A. Bayissa and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-10-26 with Science categories.
Having a robust drought monitoring system for Ethiopia is crucial to mitigate the adverse impacts of droughts. Yet, such monitoring system still lacks in Ethiopia, and in the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin in particular. Several drought indices exist to monitor drought, however, these indices are unable, individually, to provide concise information on the occurrence of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts. A combined drought index (CDI) using several meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought indices can indicate the occurrence of all drought types, and can provide information that facilitates the drought management decision-making process. This thesis proposes an impact-based combined drought index (CDI) and a regression prediction model of crop yield anomalies for the UBN basin. The impact-based CDI is defined as a drought index that optimally combines the information embedded in other drought indices for monitoring a certain impact of drought, i.e. crop yield for the UBN. The developed CDI and the regression model have shown to be effective in indicating historic drought events in UBN basin. The impact-based CDI could potentially be used in the future development of drought monitoring in the UBN basin and support decision making in order to mitigate adverse drought impacts.
Climate Change Impacts On Hydrology And Water Resources Of The Upper Blue Nile River Basin Ethiopia
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Author : Kim, U., Kaluarachchi, J. J., Smakhtin, V. U.
language : en
Publisher: IWMI
Release Date : 2008
Climate Change Impacts On Hydrology And Water Resources Of The Upper Blue Nile River Basin Ethiopia written by Kim, U., Kaluarachchi, J. J., Smakhtin, V. U. and has been published by IWMI this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Climate change mitigation categories.
The report evaluates the impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime and water resources of the Blue Nile River Basin in Ethiopia. It starts from the construction of the climate change scenarios based on the outcomes of several general circulation models (GCMs), uses a simple hydrological model to convert theses scenarios into runoff, and examines the impacts by means of a set of indices. The results, however uncertain with existing accuracy of climate models, suggest that the region is likely to have the future potential to produce hydropower, increase flow duration, and increase water storage capacity without affecting outflows to the riparian countries in the 2050s.
Climate Change Impacts On Crop Yields In Ethiopia
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Author : Thomas, Timothy S.
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2019-02-15
Climate Change Impacts On Crop Yields In Ethiopia written by Thomas, Timothy S. and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-02-15 with Political Science categories.
We present results of model simulations of maize, wheat, and sorghum yields in Ethiopia through 2085. The analysis draws on climate outcomes from 32 global climate models and an agronomic crop model to estimate effects on the yields of these cereals of expected higher temperatures and, for most of Ethiopia, increased rainfall. The simulation results suggest that climate change will likely have only relatively small effects on average yields of maize, wheat, and sorghum in Ethiopia up to 2055, as agronomic conditions for cultivation of these crops may actually improve in large parts of the country. Nonetheless, yields will need to increase over time to enable cereal production to keep pace with expected demand growth due to increases in population and per capita incomes. Moreover, even if future changes in climate have only moderate impacts on average crop yields in Ethiopia, there is growing evidence that weather outcomes are likely to become more variable in the future, implying that severe droughts and floods may very well have a greater impact on cereal production in the future than in the past.
Monitoring And Predicting Agricultural Drought
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Author : Vijendra K. Boken
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2005-04-14
Monitoring And Predicting Agricultural Drought written by Vijendra K. Boken and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-04-14 with Nature categories.
Agricultural droughts affect whole societies, leading to higher food costs, threatened economies, and even famine. In order to mitigate such effects, researchers must first be able to monitor them, and then predict them; however no book currently focuses on accurate monitoring or prediction of these devastating kinds of droughts. To fill this void, the editors of Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought have assembled a team of expert contributors from all continents to make a global study, describing biometeorological models and monitoring methods for agricultural droughts. These models and methods note the relationships between precipitation, soil moisture, and crop yields, using data gathered from conventional and remote sensing techniques. The coverage of the book includes probabilistic models and techniques used in America, Europe and the former USSR, Africa, Asia, and Australia, and it concludes with coverage of climate change and resultant shifts in agricultural productivity, drought early warning systems, and famine mitigation. This will be an essential collection for those who must advise governments or international organizations on the current scope, likelihood, and impact of agricultural droughts. Sponsored by the World Meterological Organization
Crop And Location Specific Drought Index For Agricultural Water Management
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Author : Rachel McDaniel
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Crop And Location Specific Drought Index For Agricultural Water Management written by Rachel McDaniel and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with categories.
Severe droughts have plagued the United States over the last few years. The 2011 Texas drought, the 2012 U.S. drought, and the current California drought have greatly impacted the nation's economy and agricultural production. Different crops vary in their response to water stress. Despite this, commonly used drought indices, such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index, do not consider crop specific factors. The goal of this project was to create a methodology to produce crop and location specific drought and yield trend forecasts to help agricultural producers make more informed water management decisions. To achieve this, a drought index was developed and analyzed, weather forecasts were used in a hydrology/crop model to predict hydrologic conditions and crop yields, and an example interactive map interface were created to convey this information to water stakeholders. The drought index uses five parameters that affect or are affected by drought. These parameters include precipitation, temperature, cumulative biomass, soil moisture, and transpiration. Soil moisture and temperature are ranked against crop-specific threshold values, while precipitation and cumulative biomass are ranked against location-specific normal values. Transpiration is ranked against the location-specific potential transpiration. A case study was performed in the Upper Colorado River Basin located in West Texas using this drought index. Cotton is the primary crop grown in the watershed and was used in this study. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to estimate the cumulative biomass, soil moisture, and transpiration. A multiple linear regression model was developed for each week of the growing season based on the significant parameters during that stage of the growing season. These models were used to predict yield trends and drought severity. Two week forecasts for each drought parameter, yield trends, and the drought index were generated for 2010 through 2013 by using forecasted precipitation and temperature data as inputs for the hydrologic and crop model. This provided forecasted soil moisture, transpiration, and cumulative biomass production. Parameter rankings, yield trends, and the drought index were compared for those calculated with actual precipitation and temperature data as well as forecasted precipitation and temperature data. The precipitation ranking, temperature ranking, cumulative biomass ranking, transpiration ranking, estimated yield trends, and drought index indicated satisfactory forecast results. The soil moisture forecast did not result in satisfactory forecast. The final step in the project was to create an example interface for agricultural producers and water managers to view drought related stresses. ArcGIS online was used to create maps which show graphs of the weekly drought index and soil moisture ranking. Maps were created at the county scale. These maps provide agricultural producers readily accessible information that can be used for decision making related to water management. The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/155528
The Drought Risk Analysis Forecasting And Assessment Under Climate Change
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Author : Tae-Woong Kim
language : en
Publisher: MDPI
Release Date : 2021-01-06
The Drought Risk Analysis Forecasting And Assessment Under Climate Change written by Tae-Woong Kim and has been published by MDPI this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-01-06 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This Special Issue is a platform to fill the gaps in drought risk analysis with field experience and expertise. It covers (1) robust index development for effective drought monitoring; (2) risk analysis framework development and early warning systems; (3) impact investigations on hydrological and agricultural sectors; (4) environmental change impact analyses. The articles in the Special Issue cover a wide geographic range, across China, Taiwan, Korea, and the Indo-China peninsula, which covers many contrasting climate conditions. Hence, the results have global implications: the data, analysis/modeling, methodologies, and conclusions lay a solid foundation for enhancing our scientific knowledge of drought mechanisms and relationships to various environmental conditions.
Spatio Temporal Characterisation Of Drought Data Analytics Modelling Tracking Impact And Prediction
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Author : Vitali Diaz Mercado
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2022-02-10
Spatio Temporal Characterisation Of Drought Data Analytics Modelling Tracking Impact And Prediction written by Vitali Diaz Mercado and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-02-10 with Science categories.
Studies of drought have increased in light of new data availability and advances in spatio-temporal analysis. However, the following gaps still need to be filled: 1) methods to characterise drought that explicitly consider its spatio-temporal features, such as spatial extent (area) and pathway; 2) methods to monitor and predict drought that include the above-mentioned characteristics and 3) approaches for visualising and analysing drought characteristics to facilitate interpretation of its variation. This research aims to explore, analyse and propose improvements to the spatio-temporal characterisation of drought. Outcomes provide new perspectives towards better prediction. The following objectives were proposed. 1) Improve the methodology for characterising drought based on the phenomenon’s spatial features. 2) Develop a visual approach to analysing drought variations. 3) Develop a methodology for spatial drought tracking. 4) Explore machine learning (ML) techniques to predict crop-yield responses to drought. The four objectives were addressed and results are presented. Finally, a scope was formulated for integrating ML and the spatio-temporal analysis of drought. Proposed scope opens a new area of potential for drought prediction (i.e. predicting spatial drought tracks and areas). It is expected that the drought tracking and prediction method will help populations cope with drought and its severe impacts.
Drought Assessment Forecasts And Predicitions Under Climate Change Scenario In The Upper Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia
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Author : Y. G. Bezabih
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Drought Assessment Forecasts And Predicitions Under Climate Change Scenario In The Upper Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia written by Y. G. Bezabih and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with categories.
Climate Change Impacts To Agriculture Of The Blue Nile Highlands Ethiopia
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Author : Michael Eric Eggen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
Climate Change Impacts To Agriculture Of The Blue Nile Highlands Ethiopia written by Michael Eric Eggen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.
Spatio Temporal Drought Characterization And Forecasting Using Indices And Artificial Neural Networks A Case Of The Upper Tana River Basin Kenya
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Author : Raphael Muli Wambua
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2019-04-08
Spatio Temporal Drought Characterization And Forecasting Using Indices And Artificial Neural Networks A Case Of The Upper Tana River Basin Kenya written by Raphael Muli Wambua and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-04-08 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Doctoral Thesis / Dissertation from the year 2016 in the subject Engineering - Civil Engineering, grade: 80.0, Egerton University, course: AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING, language: English, abstract: Drought is a critical stochastic natural disaster that adversely affects water resources, ecosystems and people. Drought is a condition characterized by scarcity of precipitation and/or water quantity that negatively affects the global, regional and local land-scales. At both global and regional scales, drought frequency and severity have been increasing leading to direct and indirect decline in water resources. Increase in drought severity and frequency in the upper Tana River basin, Kenya, water resources systems have been adversely affected. Timely detection and forecasting of drought is crucial in planning and management of water resources. The main objective of this research was to formulate the most appropriate models for assessment and forecasting of drought using Indices and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for the basin. Hydro-meteorlogical data for the period 1970-2010 at sixteen hydrometric stations was used to test the performance of the indices in forecasting of the future drought at 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18 and 24-months lead times, by constructing ANN models with different time delays. Drought conditions at monthly temporal resolution were evaluated using selected drought indices. The occurrence of drought was investigated using non-parametric Man-kendall trend test. Spatial distribution of drought severity was determined using Kriging interpolation techinique. In addition, a standard Nonlinear-Integrated Drought Index (NDI), for drought forecasting in the basin was developed using hydro-meteoroogical data for the river basin. The results of spaial drought show that the south-eastern parts of the basin are more prone to drought risks than the north-western areas. The Mann-Kendall trend test indicates an increasing drought trend in the south-eastern and no trend in north-western areas of the basin. Development of Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) function, NDI and characteristic curves defining the return period and the probability of different drought magnitudes based on Drought Indices (DIs) was achieved. Drought Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) curves were developed. The formulated NDI tool can be adopted for a synchronized assessment and forecasting of all the three operational drought types in the basin. The results can be used in assisting water resources managers for timely detection and forecasting of drought conditions in prioritized planning of drought preparedness and early warning systems.