Distributional Consequences Of Wheat Policy In Sudan A Simulation Model Analysis

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Distributional Consequences Of Wheat Policy In Sudan A Simulation Model Analysis

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Author : Dorosh, Paul A.
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2021-12-15

Distributional Consequences Of Wheat Policy In Sudan A Simulation Model Analysis written by Dorosh, Paul A. and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-12-15 with Political Science categories.

Despite reforms in early 2021, including a devaluation of the currency and a liberalization of imports, there remain significant distortions in Sudan’s wheat value chain, especially related to subsidized sales prices of flatbread. This flatbread subsidy, a key component of wheat policy, is not well-targeted. Calculations based on 2009 national household survey data and current 2021 prices and wheat supply show that urban poor households annually receive slightly less from this subsidy than urban non-poor households (18,900 and 20,800 SDG/capita). Rural poor households receive only 2,700 SDG/capita. This paper presents the results of several simulations of a partial equilibrium model of Sudan’s wheat economy that are designed to analyze the impacts of recent shocks and various policy options. Model simulations show that increased wheat imports, such as those financed by food aid, add to supplies for processing into wheat flour, flatbread, and other wheat products, resulting in lower prices for consumers and increased consumption, but also disincentives for production. A 300,000 ton increase in wheat imports, as occurred in early 2021, results in an 8 percent increase in wheat consumption and a 35 percent decline in the market price of non-flatbread wheat products. Production falls by 12 percent. Since flatbread prices are unchanged, wheat consumption of the urban poor, for whom flatbread is the major wheat product consumed, increases by only 4 percent. Raising flatbread prices by 30 percent to reduce the size of the fiscal subsidy reduces total consumption of flatbread by 17 percent and sharply reduces wheat consumption and real incomes of the urban poor. All households suffer a loss of 41 to 45 percent in the value of flatbread subsidies received. The urban poor experience the largest decline in total consumption of wheat (14 percent) and in total income (11 percent). (The average total income loss for all households is only 3 percent.) Reducing the flatbread subsidy without a compensating income transfer would significantly reduce the welfare of the urban poor and likely threaten political stability. Our results suggest that a combination of key wheat policies involving high levels of imports – including injection of food aid wheat into the economy in late 2020 – and subsidized flatbread will significantly benefit urban poor households. Nonetheless, the are important data gaps on several aspects of the wheat sector, including no recent nationally representative household expenditure survey data. In addition, greater transparency, including publication of quantities and prices of government purchases, sales of wheat and wheat flour, and quantities and prices of subsidized flatbread across the country has the potential to significantly increase the efficiency of the entire wheat sector. As shown in this paper, Sudan’s wheat policies in recent years, such as increased wheat imports, price subsidies in the wheat value chain, and low prices of flatbread, have in general favored consumers, to the detriment of producers. These interventions in the wheat value chain, especially those related to subsidies on flatbread, have especially large effects on the welfare of urban households, making these policies particularly politically sensitive. However, they have entailed high fiscal costs, threatening macro-economic stability and crowding out other possible investments to promote growth and poverty reduction. Careful policy analysis and ongoing monitoring of outcomes and new developments will be needed to help guide the important choices ahead.

Evaluating Cereal Market Dis Integration In Sudan

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Author : Abay, Kibrom A.
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2022-01-27

Evaluating Cereal Market Dis Integration In Sudan written by Abay, Kibrom A. and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-01-27 with Political Science categories.

This paper evaluates spatial market and price transmission in cereal markets in Sudan, focusing on wheat and sorghum, two major cereal crops. We use comprehensive and long-ranging monthly cereal price data and a multivariate vector of error-correction cointegration models (VECM) to characterize both short-term and long-term price transmissions across local cereal markets. We find that among the 15 local wheat markets and 18 sorghum markets we can only detect significant spatial market integration among 7 wheat and 10 sorghum markets. Despite some strong spatial market integration among a few neighboring markets, there is no market integration between several regions. For example, cereal markets in Darfur are not integrated with cereal markets in the rest of the country. Among integrated markets, we observe significant variations in the strength of price transmission elasticities as well as speed of adjustment to longterm equilibrium, which implies that shocks (and price policies) in some markets can affect only some other markets. Most of the strong price transmission and spatial market dependence follow existing trade flows and road networks, insinuating that infrastructural barriers may be obstructing spatial market integration. We also find that markets in production surplus states are less responsive to price changes in neighboring markets than those located in cereal deficit states. Finally, we also observe relatively stronger spatial integration and short-term adjustment in sorghum markets than wheat markets. Shocks to sorghum prices in sorghum producing markets have permanent impact while shocks to wheat prices in wheat producing markets endure transitory effects. These findings have important policy implications for improving the efficiency of cereal markets in Sudan and other similar settings.

The Russia Ukraine Crisis Implications For Global And Regional Food Security And Potential Policy Responses

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Author : Abay, Kibrom A.
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2022-05-18

The Russia Ukraine Crisis Implications For Global And Regional Food Security And Potential Policy Responses written by Abay, Kibrom A. and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-05-18 with Political Science categories.

This paper analyzes the implications of the Russian-Ukraine crisis on global and regional food security. We start with a global vulnerability analysis to identify most vulnerable regions and countries. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is particularly vulnerable to trade shocks because of its high food import dependence. Thus, we provide descriptive evidence characterizing how food systems and policies impact vulnerability to the price shock in selected MENA countries: Egypt, Sudan, and Yemen. Within these countries, we show that the crisis will differentially impact poor and non-poor households as well as rural and urban households. Although the absolute level of food insecurity may still be higher in rural areas where larger numbers of poor households are located, urban poor are likely to suffer most because of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and associated hikes in food prices, especially in those countries where social protection and food subsidies are missing. On the policy side, we review lessons from previous food crises and identify actions needed to take (and to avoid) to protect most vulnerable countries and households in the short-term while also highlighting long-term policy options to diversify food, fertilizer and energy production and trade.

Wheat Subsidies Wheat Markets And Food Security In Sudan Current State And Options For The Future

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Author : Abay, Kibrom A.
language : un
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2022-01-28

Wheat Subsidies Wheat Markets And Food Security In Sudan Current State And Options For The Future written by Abay, Kibrom A. and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-01-28 with Political Science categories.

This policy note summarizes the key findings from the following four research papers prepared by the International Food Policy Research Institute with financial support by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID): 1. Bottlenecks in Sudan’s Wheat Value Chains: Insights from Surveys 2. Evaluating Cereal Market (Dis)Integration in Sudan 3. Distributional Consequences of Wheat Policy in Sudan: A Simulation Model Analysis 4. Political Economy of Wheat Value Chains in Post-Revolution Sudan

Sudan Strategy Support Program Sssp Background And Research Output

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Author : International Food Policy Research Institute
language : un
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2025-04-17

Sudan Strategy Support Program Sssp Background And Research Output written by International Food Policy Research Institute and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-04-17 with Political Science categories.

The Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP), one of the country programs of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), commenced operations in May 2022 from the premises of the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development, its official host institution in Sudan. Established with funding from USAID, the United States Agency for International Development, the program has also formed partnerships or received support from a number of prominent organizations, including the CGIAR Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration, the CGIAR Initiative on NEXUS Gains, the United Nations Development Programme, the World Bank, the World Food Programme, the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas, and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).

The Implications Of Market Liberalization And World Price Movements For Wheat Price Policy In Sudan

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Author : Dorosh, Paul
language : un
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2023-01-03

The Implications Of Market Liberalization And World Price Movements For Wheat Price Policy In Sudan written by Dorosh, Paul and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-01-03 with Political Science categories.

Wheat is an essential commodity in Sudan and a staple for millions. It is second only to sorghum as a key source of calories. The demand for wheat has grown over the last two decades because of a growing population and changing consumer preferences for bread and other wheat products. Domestic farming provides only about 15 percent of the national wheat requirement. The rest is imported mainly from the Black Sea port (Russia and Ukraine). With the Sudanese wheat growing season approaching, this policy brief observes the movement of domestic and international wheat prices and analyzes the possible implications of a reduction in real prices on production, imports, and consumption of wheat products.

Analysis Of Sudan S Agricultural Trade Under Uncertainty

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Author : Hanaa Abdel Hamid Ibrahim
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2004

Analysis Of Sudan S Agricultural Trade Under Uncertainty written by Hanaa Abdel Hamid Ibrahim and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Agricultural productivity categories.

Climate Change And Agriculture In The Sudan Impact Pathways Beyond Changes In Mean Rainfall And Temperature

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Author : Siddig, Khalid
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2018-09-26

Climate Change And Agriculture In The Sudan Impact Pathways Beyond Changes In Mean Rainfall And Temperature written by Siddig, Khalid and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-09-26 with Political Science categories.

Several environmental changes have occurred in the Sudan in the past; several are ongoing; and others are projected to happen in the future. The Sudan has witnessed increases in temperature, floods, rainfall variability, and concurrent droughts. In a country where agriculture, which is mainly rainfed, is a major contributor to gross domestic product, foreign exchange earnings, and livelihoods, these changes are especially important, requiring measurement and analysis of their impact. This study not only analyzes the economy-wide impacts of climate change, but also consults national policy plans, strategies, and environmental assessments to identify interventions which may mitigate the effects. We feed climate forcing, water demand, and macro-socioeconomic trends into a modelling suite that includes models for global hydrology, river basin management, water stress, and crop growth, all connected to the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). The outcomes of this part of the modeling suite are annual crop yields and global food prices under various climate change scenarios until 2050. The effects of such changes on production, consumption, macroeconomic indicators, and income distribution are assessed using a single country dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the Sudan. Additionally, we introduce yield variability into the CGE model based on stochastic projections of crop yields until 2050. The results of the model simulations reveal that, while the projected mean climate changes bring some good news for the Sudan, extreme negative variability costs the Sudan cumulatively between 2018 and 2050 US$ 109.5 billion in total absorption and US$ 105.5 billion in GDP relative to a historical mean climate scenario without climate change.

American Doctoral Dissertations

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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1993

American Doctoral Dissertations written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Dissertation abstracts categories.

Bibliography Of Agriculture

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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1990

Bibliography Of Agriculture written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with Agriculture categories.