Wheat Subsidies Wheat Markets And Food Security In Sudan Current State And Options For The Future
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Wheat Subsidies Wheat Markets And Food Security In Sudan Current State And Options For The Future
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Author : Abay, Kibrom A.
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2022-01-28
Wheat Subsidies Wheat Markets And Food Security In Sudan Current State And Options For The Future written by Abay, Kibrom A. and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-01-28 with Political Science categories.
This policy note summarizes the key findings from the following four research papers prepared by the International Food Policy Research Institute with financial support by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID): 1. Bottlenecks in Sudan’s Wheat Value Chains: Insights from Surveys 2. Evaluating Cereal Market (Dis)Integration in Sudan 3. Distributional Consequences of Wheat Policy in Sudan: A Simulation Model Analysis 4. Political Economy of Wheat Value Chains in Post-Revolution Sudan
Distributional Consequences Of Wheat Policy In Sudan A Simulation Model Analysis
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Author : Dorosh, Paul A.
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2021-12-15
Distributional Consequences Of Wheat Policy In Sudan A Simulation Model Analysis written by Dorosh, Paul A. and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-12-15 with Political Science categories.
Despite reforms in early 2021, including a devaluation of the currency and a liberalization of imports, there remain significant distortions in Sudan’s wheat value chain, especially related to subsidized sales prices of flatbread. This flatbread subsidy, a key component of wheat policy, is not well-targeted. Calculations based on 2009 national household survey data and current 2021 prices and wheat supply show that urban poor households annually receive slightly less from this subsidy than urban non-poor households (18,900 and 20,800 SDG/capita). Rural poor households receive only 2,700 SDG/capita. This paper presents the results of several simulations of a partial equilibrium model of Sudan’s wheat economy that are designed to analyze the impacts of recent shocks and various policy options. Model simulations show that increased wheat imports, such as those financed by food aid, add to supplies for processing into wheat flour, flatbread, and other wheat products, resulting in lower prices for consumers and increased consumption, but also disincentives for production. A 300,000 ton increase in wheat imports, as occurred in early 2021, results in an 8 percent increase in wheat consumption and a 35 percent decline in the market price of non-flatbread wheat products. Production falls by 12 percent. Since flatbread prices are unchanged, wheat consumption of the urban poor, for whom flatbread is the major wheat product consumed, increases by only 4 percent. Raising flatbread prices by 30 percent to reduce the size of the fiscal subsidy reduces total consumption of flatbread by 17 percent and sharply reduces wheat consumption and real incomes of the urban poor. All households suffer a loss of 41 to 45 percent in the value of flatbread subsidies received. The urban poor experience the largest decline in total consumption of wheat (14 percent) and in total income (11 percent). (The average total income loss for all households is only 3 percent.) Reducing the flatbread subsidy without a compensating income transfer would significantly reduce the welfare of the urban poor and likely threaten political stability. Our results suggest that a combination of key wheat policies involving high levels of imports – including injection of food aid wheat into the economy in late 2020 – and subsidized flatbread will significantly benefit urban poor households. Nonetheless, the are important data gaps on several aspects of the wheat sector, including no recent nationally representative household expenditure survey data. In addition, greater transparency, including publication of quantities and prices of government purchases, sales of wheat and wheat flour, and quantities and prices of subsidized flatbread across the country has the potential to significantly increase the efficiency of the entire wheat sector. As shown in this paper, Sudan’s wheat policies in recent years, such as increased wheat imports, price subsidies in the wheat value chain, and low prices of flatbread, have in general favored consumers, to the detriment of producers. These interventions in the wheat value chain, especially those related to subsidies on flatbread, have especially large effects on the welfare of urban households, making these policies particularly politically sensitive. However, they have entailed high fiscal costs, threatening macro-economic stability and crowding out other possible investments to promote growth and poverty reduction. Careful policy analysis and ongoing monitoring of outcomes and new developments will be needed to help guide the important choices ahead.
Political Economy Of Wheat Value Chains In Post Revolution Sudan
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Author : Resnick, Danielle
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2021-10-27
Political Economy Of Wheat Value Chains In Post Revolution Sudan written by Resnick, Danielle and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-10-27 with Political Science categories.
Wheat flour and bread have played a central role in Sudan’s political economy throughout the country’s post-independence history. In 2019, increasing bread prices precipitated the protests that ousted the government of Omar al-Bashir. How has Sudan’s recent political transition and economic circumstances impacted distortions within the wheat value chain? What are the policy preferences of relevant stakeholders for improving the affordability of wheat products and the productivity of domestic wheat farmers? This paper addresses these questions by drawing on key informant interviews in Sudan and utilizing a political settlements approach, which captures the underlying distribution of power among elites and citizens. The post-revolution political settlement contains a much broader distribution of power shared between a civilian alliance movement and the military, each of which has distinct interests in the wheat value chain. The paper elucidates the preferences of different stakeholders to address policy distortions and discusses bottlenecks that need to be overcome for those options to be feasible. In doing so, the analysis reveals that, while the policy of subsidizing bread remains contentious, there are broader coalitions for interventions related to regulatory and monitoring reforms, improvements in domestic wheat procurement, enhanced agricultural investments, and targeted cash transfers to cushion subsidy reductions.
An Assessment Of Sudan S Wheat Value Chains Exploring Key Bottlenecks And Challenges
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Author : Abdelaziz, Fatma
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2022-04-20
An Assessment Of Sudan S Wheat Value Chains Exploring Key Bottlenecks And Challenges written by Abdelaziz, Fatma and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-04-20 with Political Science categories.
Wheat is a strategic and political good in Sudan and has played a central role in the country’s economy during successive regimes. Disruptions in Sudan’s wheat value chain usually leads to shortages of wheat bread, price spikes, and political unrest. With the objective of ensuring sufficient grain supplies for domestic consumption, Sudan’s domestic and imported wheat sectors have been subject to several government interventions over the last decades. Most interventions have focused on and aimed to (i) stimulate domestic production, (ii) ensure a reliable flow of wheat imports to compensate for low domestic wheat production, and (iii) monitor wheat flour and bread distribution processes to limit leakage and wastage. Sudan has two distinct wheat value chains: one for imported wheat and one for domestic wheat. The imported wheat value chain involves three major actors: milling companies, wheat flour agents, and bakeries. The domestic (locally produced) wheat value chain involves four main actors: wheat producers, wheat grain wholesalers, wheat grain retailers, and consumers. To understand the landscape of the wheat sector in Sudan, this report relies on rapid assessment surveys of the main wheat value chain actors. The aim is to closely identify different value chain actors’ distinct roles of the and to explore their linkages. The report evaluates and identifies key bottlenecks that likely cause wheat and bread supply disruptions while also shedding light on untapped opportunities and possible policy options to improve the functioning of Sudan’s wheat sector. We document wheat value chain actors’ policy preferences, which vary depending on whether actors are engaged in the domestic or the imported value chain. The report highlights the differential impact of COVID-19 and related mobility restrictions on wheat value chain members. For example, while wheat production remains mostly unaffected by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the marketing, trade, and distribution of wheat and wheat flour has been adversely affected by it.
Evaluating Cereal Market Dis Integration In Sudan
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Author : Abay, Kibrom A.
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2022-01-27
Evaluating Cereal Market Dis Integration In Sudan written by Abay, Kibrom A. and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-01-27 with Political Science categories.
This paper evaluates spatial market and price transmission in cereal markets in Sudan, focusing on wheat and sorghum, two major cereal crops. We use comprehensive and long-ranging monthly cereal price data and a multivariate vector of error-correction cointegration models (VECM) to characterize both short-term and long-term price transmissions across local cereal markets. We find that among the 15 local wheat markets and 18 sorghum markets we can only detect significant spatial market integration among 7 wheat and 10 sorghum markets. Despite some strong spatial market integration among a few neighboring markets, there is no market integration between several regions. For example, cereal markets in Darfur are not integrated with cereal markets in the rest of the country. Among integrated markets, we observe significant variations in the strength of price transmission elasticities as well as speed of adjustment to longterm equilibrium, which implies that shocks (and price policies) in some markets can affect only some other markets. Most of the strong price transmission and spatial market dependence follow existing trade flows and road networks, insinuating that infrastructural barriers may be obstructing spatial market integration. We also find that markets in production surplus states are less responsive to price changes in neighboring markets than those located in cereal deficit states. Finally, we also observe relatively stronger spatial integration and short-term adjustment in sorghum markets than wheat markets. Shocks to sorghum prices in sorghum producing markets have permanent impact while shocks to wheat prices in wheat producing markets endure transitory effects. These findings have important policy implications for improving the efficiency of cereal markets in Sudan and other similar settings.
Current Status Of Agriculture And Future Challenges In Sudan
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Author : Farida Mahgoub
language : en
Publisher: Nordic Africa Institute
Release Date : 2014-04
Current Status Of Agriculture And Future Challenges In Sudan written by Farida Mahgoub and has been published by Nordic Africa Institute this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04 with Social Science categories.
Urbanisation and long-lasting civil wars and conflict mean that the demographic pattern in Sudan is changing drastically. Nevertheless, 60%-80 % of Sudanese engage in subsistence agriculture. Agriculture remains a crucial sector in the economy as a major source of raw materials, food and foreign exchange. It employs the majority of the labour force, and serves as a potential vehicle for diversifying the economy. However, no rigorous studies have explained productivity in this sector in relation to food security. The situation has worsened because agriculture in particular has been neglected since the advent of oil production in the early 2000s. Moreover, Sudan's agricultural growth has been unbalanced, with the majority of irrigated agriculture concentrated in the Centre and a huge disparity in development indicators between the best- and worst-performing regions.Thus, studies show that the vast majority of Sudanese are reported to be food insecure, especially internally displaced persons and in conflict regions such as Darfur, Kordofan and other regions.
The Political Economy Of Arab Food Sovereignty
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Author : J. Harrigan
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2014-06-23
The Political Economy Of Arab Food Sovereignty written by J. Harrigan and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-06-23 with Business & Economics categories.
A political economy analysis of the history of food security in the Arab world, including the role played by the global food price crisis in the Arab Spring and the Arab response aiming at greater food sovereignty via domestic food production and land acquisition overseas – the so-called land grab.
Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientists
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1985-09
Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientists written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1985-09 with categories.
Sudan
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-11-01
Sudan written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This Selected Issues paper examines the monetary policy framework in Sudan, and assesses the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanism since the secession of South Sudan. The econometric analysis concludes that reserve money, the exchange rate, and private sector credit are the main determinants of inflation after the secession of South Sudan and that the transmission lags have been shortened significantly compared with previous studies. These findings reinforce the need for a comprehensive package of fiscal and monetary measures that strengthens the monetary policy framework and improves its effectiveness.
World Agricultural Economics And Rural Sociology Abstracts
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1995
World Agricultural Economics And Rural Sociology Abstracts written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1995 with Agriculture categories.