Divided We Fall Differential Exposure To Geopolitical Fragmentation In Trade
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Divided We Fall Differential Exposure To Geopolitical Fragmentation In Trade
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Author : Shushanik Hakobyan
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-12-22
Divided We Fall Differential Exposure To Geopolitical Fragmentation In Trade written by Shushanik Hakobyan and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-12-22 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper assesses differences in countries’ macroeconomic exposure to trade fragmentation along geopolitical lines. Estimating structural gravity regressions for sector-level bilateral trade flows between 185 countries, we find that differences in individual countries’ geopolitical ties act as a barrier to trade, with the largest effects concentrated in a few sectors (notably, food and high-end manufacturing). Consequently, countries’ exposure via trade to geopolitical shifts varies with their market size, comparative advantage, and foreign policy alignments. Introducing our estimates into a dynamic many-country, many-sector quantitative trade model, we show that geoeconomic fragmentation—modelled as an increased sensitivity of trade costs to geopolitics and greater geopolitical polarization—generally leads to lower trade and incomes. However, emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) tend to see the largest impacts: real per-capita income losses for the median EMDE in Asia are 80 percent larger, and for the median EMDE in Africa 120 percent larger, than for the median advanced economy. This suggests that the costs of trade fragmentation could fall disproportionally on countries that can afford it the least.
Industrial Policy National Security And The Perilous Plight Of The Wto
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Author : Petros C. Mavroidis
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2025
Industrial Policy National Security And The Perilous Plight Of The Wto written by Petros C. Mavroidis and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025 with Foreign trade regulation categories.
"The WTO is going through an unprecedented crisis that has seriously eroded its relevance. The repeated invocations of national security against other members are evidence of a growing distrust. Industrial policy in the name of national security was unheard of when the WTO entered the realm of international relations. The disputes that arise cannot be adequately addressed because the WTO contract cannot be adequately enforced due to the dysfunctional Appellate Body. But even if this were not the case, could enforcement of an outdated contract ever solve the emerging problem? The response in this book is negative-the WTO contract is in dire need of updating. Alas, no one is working in this direction. The WTO is facing what Joseph Nye called a "Kindleberger trap": the parties that could take the lead to invest in the international order are either unwilling or find it impossible to do so. Trading nations seem to have forgotten that the cost of no WTO is sizeable anyway (if trade growth wanes). And there is a risk that the cost extends beyond international commercial relations"--
Finland
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Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-03-11
Finland written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Recent developments and outlook. Weak household income growth, falling house prices, higher interest rates, and stagnation in Europe has caused activity to stall in Finland, with a contraction of 0.5 percent estimated in 2023. Labor markets have shown resilience, but unemployment is expected to increase somewhat in coming months, especially from the construction sector. However, inflation has fallen to more normal levels and financial conditions appear to be easing, paving the way for a modest recovery this year, strengthening further in 2025.
Denmark
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Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-09-13
Denmark written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-09-13 with categories.
Denmark has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of the energy crisis, high inflation, and tighter financial conditions. In recent years, growth has been increasingly driven by an exceptional surge in the pharmaceutical sector, while the rest of the economy has largely stagnated. Staff expect robust growth to continue in the near term, driven by pharmaceutical exports, the reopening of the Tyra natural gas field, and a gradual recovery in the non-pharmaceutical sectors. With the sharp decrease in global energy prices and lackluster domestic demand, inflation has fallen sharply. The positive outlook is, however, clouded by considerable external risks, most notably geopolitical tensions. The financial system has remained stable, although risks remain due to still-high interest rates and vulnerabilities in the commercial real estate markets.
Trading With Friends In Uncertain Times
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Author : Adam Jakubik
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-06-16
Trading With Friends In Uncertain Times written by Adam Jakubik and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-06-16 with Business & Economics categories.
In this paper we seek to answer the question of how the patterns of bilateral trade are altered by rising trade policy uncertainty (TPU). Specifically, we investigate whether geopolitical alignments between country pairs determine how bilateral trade flows react during periods of greater uncertainty. Using a structural gravity framework augmented with a text-based TPU index and a geopolitical distance measure based on UN General Assembly voting records, we find a significant negative effect of the latter when TPU is elevated, indicating a shift to trading among “friends” in uncertain times.
Changing Global Linkages A New Cold War
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Author : Ms. Gita Gopinath
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-04-05
Changing Global Linkages A New Cold War written by Ms. Gita Gopinath and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-04-05 with Business & Economics categories.
Global linkages are changing amidst elevated geopolitical tensions and a surge in policies directed at increasing supply chain resilience and national security. Using granular bilateral data, this paper provides new evidence of trade and investment fragmentation along geopolitical lines since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and compares it to the historical experience of the early years of the Cold War. Gravity model estimates point to significant declines in trade and FDI flows between countries in geopolitically distant blocs since the onset of the war in Ukraine, relative to flows between countries in the same bloc (roughly 12% and 20%, respectively). While the extent of fragmentation is still relatively small and we do not know how longlasting it will be, the decoupling between the rival geopolitical blocs during the Cold War suggests it could worsen considerably should geopolitical tensions persist and trade restrictive policies intensify. Different from the early years of the Cold War, a set of nonaligned ‘connector’ countries are rapidly gaining importance and serving as a bridge between blocs. The emergence of connectors has likely brought resilience to global trade and activity, but does not necessarily increase diversification, strengthen supply chains, or lessen strategic dependence.
The 4th Financing For Development Conference Contribution Of The Imf To The International Financing For Development Agenda
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2025-06-05
The 4th Financing For Development Conference Contribution Of The Imf To The International Financing For Development Agenda written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-06-05 with categories.
The series of major economic shocks since 2020 has added to longstanding development challenges, with low-income and fragile countries affected the most. The negative economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the spillovers from the war in Ukraine, and the tightening of international financial conditions after 2022 have added to preexisting structural obstacles weighing on economic and social progress in developing countries. While some of these factors have subsided since 2023, the escalation of trade tensions at the beginning of 2025, and the resulting impact on global growth and international financial conditions, including elevated uncertainty and significant downside risks weighing on the outlook, have again negative implications for most developing countries. In addition, natural disasters, climate and demographic challenges, geopolitical tensions, political instability, and conflicts, can be expected to add further to the challenges, even though some developments, including artificial intelligence and digitalization, may be beneficial. That said, while developing countries share many characteristics, increasing heterogeneity in their economic conditions and exposures to risks calls for appropriate differentiation in countries’ policy and reform agendas, as well as in the support from the international community. Particular attention must be paid to the situation of the poorest and fragile countries.
World Economic Situation And Prospects 2025
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Author : United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
language : en
Publisher: Stylus Publishing, LLC
Release Date : 2025-01-22
World Economic Situation And Prospects 2025 written by United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs and has been published by Stylus Publishing, LLC this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-01-22 with categories.
Global Value Chains In A Changing World
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Author : Deborah Kay Elms
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Global Value Chains In A Changing World written by Deborah Kay Elms and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Business & Economics categories.
A collection of papers by some of the world's leading specialists on global value chains (GVCs). It examines how GVCs have evolved and the challenges they face in a rapidly changing world. The approach is multi-disciplinary, with contributions from economists, political scientists, supply chain management specialists, practitioners and policy-makers. Co-published with the Fung Global Institute and the Temasek
World Economic Outlook October 2013
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-10-08
World Economic Outlook October 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.