Drivers Of Emerging Market Bond Flows And Prices
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Drivers Of Emerging Market Bond Flows And Prices
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Author : Mr. Evan Papageorgiou
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-12-16
Drivers Of Emerging Market Bond Flows And Prices written by Mr. Evan Papageorgiou and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-12-16 with Business & Economics categories.
An interesting disconnect has taken shape between local currency- and hard currency-denominated bonds in emerging markets with respect to their portfolio flows and prices since the start of the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Emerging market assets have recovered sharply from the COVID-19 sell-off in 2020, but the post-pandemic recovery in 2021 has been highly uneven. This note seeks to answer why. Yields of local currency-denominated bonds have risen faster and are approaching their pandemic highs, while hard currency bond yields are still near their post-pandemic lows. Portfolio flows to local currency debt have similarly lagged flows to hard currency bonds. This disconnect is closely linked to the external environment and fiscal and inflationary pressures. Its evolution remains a key consideration for policymakers and investors, since local markets are the main source of funding for emerging markets. This note draws from the methodology developed in earlier Global Financial Stability Reports on fundamentals-based asset valuation models for funding costs and forecasting models for capital flows (using the at-risk framework). The results are consistent across models, indicating that local currency assets are significantly more sensitive to domestic fundamentals while hard currency assets are dependent on the external risk sentiment to a greater extent. This suggests that the post-pandemic, stressed domestic fundamentals have weighed on local currency bonds, partially offsetting the boost from supportive global risk sentiment. The analysis also highlights the risks emerging markets face from an asynchronous recovery and weak domestic fundamentals.
The Drivers Of Capital Flows In Emerging Markets Post Global Financial Crisis
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Author : Swarnali Ahmed Hannan
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-03-10
The Drivers Of Capital Flows In Emerging Markets Post Global Financial Crisis written by Swarnali Ahmed Hannan and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-03-10 with Business & Economics categories.
Using a sample of 34 emerging markets and developing economies over the period 2009Q3-2015Q4, the paper employs a panel framework to study the determinants of capital flows, both net and gross, across a wide range of instruments. The baseline regressions are then extended to focus on high and low episodes – quarters with flows one standard deviation above/below mean. Overall, the results suggest that the capital flow slowdown witnessed in recent years is due to a combination of lower growth prospects of recipient countries and worse global risk sentiment. However, the determinants of flows can be considerably different across instruments and across the type of flows considered, net or gross. The sensitivity of certain types of flows, towards push and pull factors, increases during periods of high and low capital flows. Moreover, some variables may not necessarily be significant during normal times, but can be important drivers during such episodes, and vice versa. Indicators like the gap between the U.S. long- and short-term maturity bond yields – not significant during normal times – can be an important driver during high episodes.
Portfolio Flows Global Risk Aversion And Asset Prices In Emerging Markets
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Author : Nasha Ananchotikul
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-08-19
Portfolio Flows Global Risk Aversion And Asset Prices In Emerging Markets written by Nasha Ananchotikul and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-08-19 with Business & Economics categories.
In recent years, portfolio flows to emerging markets have become increasingly large and volatile. Using weekly portfolio fund flows data, the paper finds that their short-run dynamics are driven mostly by global “push” factors. To what extent do these cross-border flows and global risk aversion drive asset volatility in emerging markets? We use a Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Multivariate GARCH framework to estimate the impact of portfolio flows and the VIX index on three asset prices, namely equity returns, bond yields and exchange rates, in 17 emerging economies. The analysis shows that global risk aversion has a significant impact on the volatility of asset prices, while the magnitude of that impact correlates with country characteristics, including financial openness, the exchange rate regime, as well as macroeconomic fundamentals such as inflation and the current account balance. In line with earlier literature, portfolio flows to emerging markets are also found to affect the level of asset prices, as was the case in particular during the global financial crisis.
Emerging Market Portfolio Flows
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Author : Mr.Serkan Arslanalp
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-12-17
Emerging Market Portfolio Flows written by Mr.Serkan Arslanalp and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-17 with Business & Economics categories.
Portfolio flows to emerging markets (EMs) tend to be correlated. A possible explanation is the role global benchmarks play in allocating capital internationally, the so-called “benchmark effect.” This paper finds that benchmark-driven investors indeed play a large role in a key segment of the market—the EM local currency government bond market—, accounting for more than one third of total foreign holdings as of end-2014. We find that the prominence of these investors declined somewhat after the May 2013 taper tantrum, but remain high. This distinction is important in understanding the drivers of EM capital flows and their sensitivity to different types of shocks. In particular, a high share of benchmark-driven investors may result in capital flows that are more sensitive to global shocks and less sensitive to country factors.
International Sovereign Bonds By Emerging Markets And Developing Economies
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Author : Andrea Presbitero
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-12-24
International Sovereign Bonds By Emerging Markets And Developing Economies written by Andrea Presbitero and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-24 with Business & Economics categories.
What determines the ability of low-income developing countries to issue bonds in international capital and what explains the spreads on these bonds? This paper examines these questions using a dataset that includes emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) that issued sovereign bonds at least once during the period 1995-2013 as well as those that did not. We find that an EMDE is more likely to issue a bond when, in comparison with non-issuing peers, it is larger in economic size, has higher per capita GDP, and has stronger macroeconomic fundamentals and government. Spreads on sovereign bonds are lower for countries with strong external and fiscal positions, as well as robust economic growth and government effectiveness. With regard to global factors, the results show that sovereign bond spreads are reduced in periods of lower market volatility.
Emerging Market Portfolio Flows
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Author : Serkan Arslanalp (Mr)
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Emerging Market Portfolio Flows written by Serkan Arslanalp (Mr) and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with categories.
Portfolio flows to emerging markets (EMs) tend to be correlated. A possible explanation is the role global benchmarks play in allocating capital internationally, the so-called "benchmark effect." This paper finds that benchmark-driven investors indeed play a large role in a key segment of the market-the EM local currency government bond market-, accounting for more than one third of total foreign holdings as of end-2014. We find that the prominence of these investors declined somewhat after the May 2013 taper tantrum, but remain high. This distinction is important in understanding the drivers.
Push Factors And Capital Flows To Emerging Markets
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Author : Mr.Eugenio Cerutti
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-06-22
Push Factors And Capital Flows To Emerging Markets written by Mr.Eugenio Cerutti and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-06-22 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper analyzes the behavior of gross capital inflows across 34 emerging markets (EMs). We first confirm that aggregate inflows to EMs co-move considerably. We then report three findings: (i) the aggregate co-movement conceals significant heterogeneity across asset types as only bank-related and portfolio bond and equity inflows do co-move; (ii) while global push factors in advanced economies mostly explain the common dynamics, their relative importance varies by type of flow; and (iii) the sensitivity to common dynamics varies significantly across borrower countries, with market structure characteristics (especially the composition of the foreign investor base and the level of liquidity) rather than borrower country’s institutional fundamentals strongly affecting sensitivities. Countries relying more on international funds and global banks are found to be more sensitive to push factors. Our findings suggest that EMs need to closely monitor their lenders and investors to assess their inflow exposures to global push factors.
Multi Sector Bond Funds In Emerging Markets Easy Come Easy Go
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Author : Fabio Cortes
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-12-16
Multi Sector Bond Funds In Emerging Markets Easy Come Easy Go written by Fabio Cortes and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-12-16 with Business & Economics categories.
Unconstrained multi-sector bond funds (MSBFs) can be a source of spillovers to emerging markets and potentially exert a sizable impact on cross-border flows. MSBFs have grown their investment in emerging markets in recent years and are highly concentrated—both in their positions and their decision-making. They typically also exhibit opportunistic behavior much more so than other investment funds. Theoretically, their size, multisector mandate, and unconstrained nature allows MSBFs to be a source of financial stability in periods of wide-spread market turmoil while others sell at fire-sale prices. However, this note, building on the analysis of Cortes and Sanfilippo (2020) and incorporating data around the COVID-19 crisis, finds that MSBFs could have contributed to increase market stress in selected emerging markets. When faced with large investor redemptions during the crisis, our sample of MSBFs chose to rebalance their portfolios in a concentrated manner, raising a large proportion of cash in a few specific local currency bond markets. This may have contributed to exacerbating the relative underperformance of these local currency bond markets to broader emerging market indices.
The Volatility Of Capital Flows In Emerging Markets
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Author : Maria Sole Pagliari
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-03-07
The Volatility Of Capital Flows In Emerging Markets written by Maria Sole Pagliari and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-03-07 with Business & Economics categories.
Capital flow volatility is a concern for macroeconomic and financial stability. Nonetheless, literature is scarce in this topic. Our paper sheds light on this issue in two dimensions. First, using quarterly data for 65 countries over the period 1970Q1-2016Q1, we construct three measures of volatility, for total capital flows and key instruments. Second, we perform panel regressions to understand the determinants of volatility. The measures show that the volatility of all instruments is prone to bouts, rising sharply during global shocks like the taper tantrum episode. Capital flow volatility thus remains a challenge for policy makers. The regression results suggest that push factors can be more important than pull factors in explaining volatility, illustrating that the characteristics of volatility can be different from those of the flows levels.
Benchmark Driven Investments In Emerging Market Bond Markets Taking Stock
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Author : Serkan Arslanalp
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020-09-25
Benchmark Driven Investments In Emerging Market Bond Markets Taking Stock written by Serkan Arslanalp and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-25 with categories.
This paper reviews the role of benchmark-driven investments in EM local bond markets. We provide an overview of how key EM bond benchmark indices are constructed, how they affect the behavior of investment funds, and what are the likely implications for capital flows and policy-making. Several methods are presented suggesting that the amount of assets benchmarked against widely followed EM local-currency bond indices have risen fivefold since the mid-2000s to around $300 billion. Our review suggests that the benefits of index membership may be tempered by portfolio outflow risks for some countries. This is because benchmark-driven investments may increase the importance of external factors at the expense of domestic factors, raising the risks of outflows unrelated to recipient country fundamentals. Some countries may be disproportionately exposed to these risks, reflecting the way the indices are constructed.