Dynamic Economic Decision Making
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Dynamic Economic Decision Making
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Author : John E. Silvia
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2011-06-24
Dynamic Economic Decision Making written by John E. Silvia and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-06-24 with Business & Economics categories.
A comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic and financial forces altering the economic landscape Financial decision-making requires one to anticipate how their decision will not only affect their business, but also the economic environment. Unfortunately, all too often, both private and public sector decision-makers view their decisions as one-off responses and fail to see their decisions within the context of an evolving decision-making framework. In Decision-Making in a Dynamic Economic Setting, John Silvia, Chief Economist of Wells Fargo and one of the top 5 economic forecasters according to Bloomberg News and USA Today, skillfully puts this discipline in perspective. Details realistic, decision-making approaches and applications under a broad set of economic scenarios Analyzes monetary policy and addresses the impact of financial regulations Examines business cycles and how to identify economic trends, how to deal with uncertainty and manage risk, the building blocks of growth, and strategies for innovation Decision-Making in a Dynamic Economic Setting details the real-world application of economic principles and financial strategy in making better business decisions.
Modeling Dynamic Economic Systems
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Author : Matthias Ruth
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-02-09
Modeling Dynamic Economic Systems written by Matthias Ruth and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-02-09 with Business & Economics categories.
This book explores the dynamic processes in economic systems, concentrating on the extraction and use of the natural resources required to meet economic needs. Sections cover methods for dynamic modeling in economics, microeconomic models of firms, modeling optimal use of both nonrenewable and renewable resources, and chaos in economic models. This book does not require a substantial background in mathematics or computer science.
Handbook Of The Fundamentals Of Financial Decision Making
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Author : Leonard C. MacLean
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2013
Handbook Of The Fundamentals Of Financial Decision Making written by Leonard C. MacLean and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Business & Economics categories.
This handbook in two parts covers key topics of the theory of financial decision making. Some of the papers discuss real applications or case studies as well. There are a number of new papers that have never been published before especially in Part II.Part I is concerned with Decision Making Under Uncertainty. This includes subsections on Arbitrage, Utility Theory, Risk Aversion and Static Portfolio Theory, and Stochastic Dominance. Part II is concerned with Dynamic Modeling that is the transition for static decision making to multiperiod decision making. The analysis starts with Risk Measures and then discusses Dynamic Portfolio Theory, Tactical Asset Allocation and Asset-Liability Management Using Utility and Goal Based Consumption-Investment Decision Models.A comprehensive set of problems both computational and review and mind expanding with many unsolved problems are in an accompanying problems book. The handbook plus the book of problems form a very strong set of materials for PhD and Masters courses both as the main or as supplementary text in finance theory, financial decision making and portfolio theory. For researchers, it is a valuable resource being an up to date treatment of topics in the classic books on these topics by Johnathan Ingersoll in 1988, and William Ziemba and Raymond Vickson in 1975 (updated 2 nd edition published in 2006).
Dynamic Analysis In Complex Economic Environments
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Author : Herbert Dawid
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-12-22
Dynamic Analysis In Complex Economic Environments written by Herbert Dawid and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-12-22 with Business & Economics categories.
This book analyses decision-making in dynamic economic environments. By applying a wide range of methodological approaches, combining both analytical and computational methods, the contributors examine various aspects of optimal firm behaviour and relevant policy areas. Topics covered include optimal control, dynamic games, economic decision-making, and applications in finance and economics, as well as policy implications in areas such as pollution regulation. This book is dedicated to Christophe Deissenberg, a well-known and distinguished scholar of economic dynamics and computational economics. It appeals to academics in the areas of optimal control, dynamic games and computational economics as well as to decision-makers working in policy domains such as environmental policy.
Probability Models For Economic Decisions Second Edition
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Author : Roger B. Myerson
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2019-12-17
Probability Models For Economic Decisions Second Edition written by Roger B. Myerson and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-12-17 with Business & Economics categories.
An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty. This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.
Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty
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Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-04-04
Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-04-04 with Business & Economics categories.
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Dynamic Economics
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Author : Gregory C. Chow
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 1997-02-13
Dynamic Economics written by Gregory C. Chow and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-02-13 with Business & Economics categories.
This work provides a unified and simple treatment of dynamic economics using dynamic optimization as the main theme, and the method of Lagrange multipliers to solve dynamic economic problems. The author presents the optimization framework for dynamic economics in order that readers can understand the approach and use it as they see fit. Instead of using dynamic programming, the author chooses instead to use the method of Lagrange multipliers in the analysis of dynamic optimization because it is easier and more efficient than dynamic programming, and allows readers to understand the substance of dynamic economics better. The author treats a number of topics in economics, including economic growth, macroeconomics, microeconomics, finance and dynamic games. The book also teaches by examples, using concepts to solve simple problems; it then moves to general propositions.
Dynamic Economics
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Author : Jerome Adda
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2003-08-29
Dynamic Economics written by Jerome Adda and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-08-29 with Business & Economics categories.
An integrated approach to the empirical application of dynamic optimization programming models, for students and researchers. This book is an effective, concise text for students and researchers that combines the tools of dynamic programming with numerical techniques and simulation-based econometric methods. Doing so, it bridges the traditional gap between theoretical and empirical research and offers an integrated framework for studying applied problems in macroeconomics and microeconomics. In part I the authors first review the formal theory of dynamic optimization; they then present the numerical tools and econometric techniques necessary to evaluate the theoretical models. In language accessible to a reader with a limited background in econometrics, they explain most of the methods used in applied dynamic research today, from the estimation of probability in a coin flip to a complicated nonlinear stochastic structural model. These econometric techniques provide the final link between the dynamic programming problem and data. Part II is devoted to the application of dynamic programming to specific areas of applied economics, including the study of business cycles, consumption, and investment behavior. In each instance the authors present the specific optimization problem as a dynamic programming problem, characterize the optimal policy functions, estimate the parameters, and use models for policy evaluation. The original contribution of Dynamic Economics: Quantitative Methods and Applications lies in the integrated approach to the empirical application of dynamic optimization programming models. This integration shows that empirical applications actually complement the underlying theory of optimization, while dynamic programming problems provide needed structure for estimation and policy evaluation.
Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis
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Author : Sumru Altug
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2003-11-20
Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis written by Sumru Altug and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-11-20 with Business & Economics categories.
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have begun to dominate the field of macroeconomic theory and policy-making. These models describe the evolution of macroeconomic activity as a recursive sequence of outcomes based upon the optimal decision rules of rational households, firms and policy-makers. Whilst posing a micro-founded dynamic optimisation problem for agents under uncertainty, such models have been shown to be both analytically tractable and sufficiently rich for meaningful policy analysis in a wide class of macroeconomic problems, for example, monetary and fiscal policy, economic cycles and growth and capital flows. This volume collects specially commissioned papers from leading researchers, which pull together some of the key results in diverse areas. This book will promote research using optimising models and inform researchers, post-graduate students and economists in policy-oriented organisations of some of the key findings and policy implications.
Smart Economic Decision Making In A Complex World
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Author : Morris Altman
language : en
Publisher: Academic Press
Release Date : 2020-05-22
Smart Economic Decision Making In A Complex World written by Morris Altman and has been published by Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-22 with Business & Economics categories.
Smart Economic Decision-Making in a Complex World is a fresh and reality-based perspective on decision-making with significant implications for analysis, self-understanding and policy. The book examines the conditions under which smart people generate outcomes that improve their place of work, their household and society. Within this work, the curious reader will find interesting open questions on many fascinating areas of current economic debate, including, the role of realistic assumptions robust model building, understanding how and when non-neoclassical behavior is best practice, why the assumption of smart decision-makers is best to understand and explain our economies and societies, and under what conditions individuals can make the best possible choices for themselves and society at large. Additional sections cover when and how efficiency is achieved, why inefficiencies can persist, when and how consumer welfare is maximized, and what benchmarks should be used to determine efficiency and rationality. - Makes the case for 'smart and rational' decision-making as a context-dependent rational process that is framed by socio-cultural environment and conditioned by institutional capacities - Explains how incorporation of the 'smart' decision-maker concept into economic thought improves our understanding of how, why and when people generate certain outcomes - Explores how economic efficiency can be achieved, individual preferences realized, and social welfare maximized through the use of 'smart and rational' approaches