Economic And Fiscal Outlook December 2012

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Economic And Fiscal Outlook December 2012

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Author : Office for Budget Responsibility
language : en
Publisher: The Stationery Office
Release Date : 2012-12-05

Economic And Fiscal Outlook December 2012 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and has been published by The Stationery Office this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-05 with Business & Economics categories.

This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2017-18 and also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet its medium-term fiscal objectives. The economy has performed less strongly than forecast in March 2012 (Cm. 8303, ISBN 9780101830324) and GDP is forecast to fall by 0.1% in 2012 and then to grow by 1.2% in 2013, 2.0% in 2014, 2.7% in 2016 and 2.8% in 2017. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is forecast at £108 billion or 6.9% of GDP this year (excluding the transfer of the Royal Mail's historic pension deficit into the public sector). PSNB is then forecast to decline to £31 billion or 1.6% of GDP by 20017-18. Public sector net debt (PSND) is now expected to peak at 79.9% of GDP in 2015-16 meaning the Government will miss its supplementary target of PSND falling as a share of GDP between 2014-15 and 2015-16. Other developments since the March 2012 forecasts include: the unemployment rate has fallen to 7.8%, and the overall level of employment rose to 29.6 million in the three months to September. Around half the increase since 2011 has been driven by a rise in self-employment and part-time employees, though total hours worked per week have also risen. The situation in the euro area continues to weigh on confidence and trade. Inflation is also likely to be higher in the short term, reducing the growth of real household disposable income and consumption. The Government has a greater than 50% chance of hitting its fiscal mandate.

Economic And Fiscal Outlook

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Author : Office for Budget Responsibility
language : en
Publisher: The Stationery Office
Release Date : 2010-11-29

Economic And Fiscal Outlook written by Office for Budget Responsibility and has been published by The Stationery Office this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-11-29 with Business & Economics categories.

The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the June forecast, the UK economy has recovered more strongly than initially expected. The GDP growth was greater than expected in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but that unemployment levels have risen to levels that the June forecast did not anticipate until the middle of 2012. In general the world economy has also grown more strongly. CPI inflation has remained slightly higher than expected in June, whilst public finances have performed as forecast. The interest rates on UK debt are lower than in June. The OBR forecasts that the economy will continue to recover from the recession, but at a slower pace than the recoveries of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. The publication is divided into 5 chapters with two annexes.

Economic And Fiscal Outlook March 2013

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Author : Office for Budget Responsibility
language : en
Publisher: The Stationery Office
Release Date : 2013-03-20

Economic And Fiscal Outlook March 2013 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and has been published by The Stationery Office this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-20 with Business & Economics categories.

This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2017-18 and assesses whether the Government is on course to meet its medium-term fiscal objectives. The economy grew slightly more strongly in 2012 than expected but also shrank more than expected in the final quarter, and entered 2013 with reduced momentum. This leads the OBR to revise growth forecasts to 0.6 per cent in 2013 and 1.8 per cent in 2014. Thereafter the forecasts are unchanged rising to 2.8 percent by 2017. The pace of recovery is constrained by slow growth in productivity and real incomes, continued problems in the financial system, the fiscal consolidation and the outlook for the global economy. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is expected to be broadly flat this and next, then will resume its fall in 2014-15. Underlying deficits in PSNB are forecast to be very close to £120 billion in 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14. Tax receipts are £5.1 billion lower but central government departments are expected to underspend by almost £11 billion this year. The Government has a more than 50 per cent chance of meetings its fiscal mandate. Other forecasts by the OBR include: the ILO unemployment rate to peak at 8.0 per cent in 2014 before falling back to 6.9 per cent in 2017. Real wage growth is expected to be negative in 2013, only marginally positive in 2014 before picking up to 2 per cent in 2016. The publication contains: Chapter 1: Executive summary; Chapter 2: Developments since the December 2012 forecast; Chapter 3: Economic outlook; Chapter 4: Fiscal outlook; Chapter 5: Performance against the Government's fiscal targets; Annex A - Budget 2013 policy measures.

Forecast Evaluation Report October 2012

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Author : Office for Budget Responsibility
language : en
Publisher: The Stationery Office
Release Date : 2012-10-16

Forecast Evaluation Report October 2012 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and has been published by The Stationery Office this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-10-16 with Business & Economics categories.

This report sets out how the economy and the public finances have evolved since the beginning of 2010 and examines how this evolution compares to the forecasts published by the OBR at the time of the Coalition's first budget in June 2010 and subsequently. In this year's report the key question to address is why the OBR over estimated the pace of economic growth so significantly since the autumn of 2010 whilst public sector borrowing has fallen no more slowly than expected? The underestimation of economic growth reflects several factors: the impact of stubborn inflation on real consumer spending; deteriorating export markets; impaired credit conditions; euro area anxiety and demand uncertainly for business investment. Public sector net borrowing, on the other hand, fell much as expected. The public finances have been buoyed by the resilience of cash spending and the labour market, while local and central government have spent less on public services and administration than budgeted. Individual chapters cover: the economy; the public finances; conclusions and lessons to be learned. Annexes contain the decomposition of fiscal forecast errors and comparison with past official forecasts.

Office For Budget Responsibility Economic And Fiscal Outlook Cm 8748

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Author : Office for Budget Responsibility
language : en
Publisher: The Stationery Office
Release Date : 2013-12-05

Office For Budget Responsibility Economic And Fiscal Outlook Cm 8748 written by Office for Budget Responsibility and has been published by The Stationery Office this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-05 with Business & Economics categories.

The Office for Budget Responsibility reports that the UK economy has picked up more strongly in 2013 than expected in its March forecast. Private consumption and housing investment have grown whilst business investment and net trade continue to disappoint. The forecast for GDP growth in 2013 is revised up to 1.4 per cent, but this is not expected to be maintained in 2014 as productivity and real earnings growth remain weak. The positive growth is judged to be cyclical, reducing the amount of spare capacity in the economy, rather than indicating stronger underlying growth potential. Productivity-driven growth in real earnings is necessary to sustain the recovery and the outlook for productivity growth is the key uncertainty. Nevertheless, the forecast for growth in 2014 is now 2.4 per cent. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) - the gap between what the Government spends and raises in revenue - is forecast to be £111.2 billion this year, £8.6 billion lower than the March forecast and £3.8 billion lower than in 2012-13. Underlying PSNB is estimated to have fallen by a third between 2009-10 and 2012-13, the pace of reduction slowing in 2012-13. The employment forecast is now expected to reach 31.2 million in 2018, with unemployment falling steadily over the coming years, reaching 7 per cent in mid-2015 and 6 per cent by the end of 2017. CPI inflation is forecast to fall back to the Bank of England's 2 per cent target during 2016 whilst house price inflation is revised upwards, expected to be above 5 per cent in 2014 and 7 per cent in 2015.

The Office For Budget Responsibility And The Politics Of Technocratic Economic Governance

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Author : Ben Clift
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2023-03-14

The Office For Budget Responsibility And The Politics Of Technocratic Economic Governance written by Ben Clift and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-03-14 with Political Science categories.

The Office for Budget Responsibility and the Politics of Technocratic Economic Governance is about the politics of economic ideas and technocratic economic governance. It is also a book about the changing political economy of British capitalism's relationship to the European and wider global economies. It focuses on the creation in 2010 and subsequent operation of the independent body created to oversee fiscal rectitude in Britain, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). More broadly, it analyses the politics of economic management of the UK's uncertain trajectory, and of British capitalism's restructuring in the 2010s and 2020s in the face of the upheavals of the global financial crisis (GFC), Brexit and COVID. A focus on the intersection between expert economic opinion of the OBR as UK's fiscal watchdog, and the political economy of British capitalism's evolution through and after Brexit, animates a framework for analysing the politics of technocratic economic governance. The technocratic vision of independent fiscal councils fails to grasp a core political economy insight: that economic knowledge and narratives are political and social constructs. The book unpacks the competing constructions of economic reason that underpin models of British capitalism, and through that inform expert economic assessment of the UK economy. It also underlines how contestable political economic assumptions undergird visions of Britain's international economic relations. These were all brought to the fore in economic policy debates about Britain's place in the world, which in the 2010s centred on Brexit. This book analyses OBR forecasting and fiscal oversight in that broader political context, rather than as a narrowly technical pursuit.

House Of Commons Treasury Committee Autumn Statement 2013 Hc 826

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Author : Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee
language : en
Publisher: The Stationery Office
Release Date : 2014-03-08

House Of Commons Treasury Committee Autumn Statement 2013 Hc 826 written by Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee and has been published by The Stationery Office this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-03-08 with Business & Economics categories.

Around 43% of departmental expenditure limits are ring-fenced. As a consequence, public expenditure control - on the scale required to address the deficit - will be increasingly difficult. While ring-fencing reflects public priorities, those preferences are not equally strongly held for all ring-fenced areas. Support for the 33.5% cumulative real increase in aid over the course of this Parliament, for example, appears to be lower than for health and schools. The Committee also remains concerned about the impact of the Government's Help to Buy: Mortgage guarantee scheme. An abrupt end to the scheme could distort the market, as could announcements which radically alter people's expectations. Forecasts of additional revenue from many anti-avoidance measures are inherently extremely uncertain. The Committee warned in its report on the Autumn Statement 2012 that the forecast revenues from the UK-Swiss agreement - at £5.3 billion - were subject to uncertainty and that the proceeds may not meet expectations. These concerns appear to have been justified. Even after the event it is often very difficult to establish how much a particular measure has raised. The OBR should look again at how the Government accounts for projected revenues, based on previous experience. Even after the event it is often very difficult to establish how much a particular measure has raised. The more transparency about the yield, and therefore each proposal's effectiveness, the better

Autumn Statement 2012

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Author : Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee
language : en
Publisher: The Stationery Office
Release Date : 2013-01-29

Autumn Statement 2012 written by Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee and has been published by The Stationery Office this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-29 with Business & Economics categories.

The Treasury should re-establish the annual Budget as the main focus of fiscal and economic policy making. The Autumn Statement is not, nor should it be, a second Budget. An additional budget can create uncertainty and carries an economic cost. Treasury and business managers also need to ensure that there is adequate Parliamentary time to allow proper scrutiny of the Finance Bill. About half of general government expenditure is to be protected from the new spending cuts but the complete protection of ring-fenced departmental budgets will be difficult to sustain while other departments are substantially affected. The Committee also intends to question the future Governor of the Bank of England, Dr Mark Carney, on possible alternatives to the inflation targeting that currently underpins the work of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank. The Treasury and to some extent the Bank were at fault for failing to coordinate the announcement of the Asset Purchase Facility transfer with that of the November MPC press release. It is vital that the MPC fulfils its duty to demonstrate its independence. There is concern at reports that the Funding for Lending Scheme may be biased in favouring lending for mortgages rather than lending to SMEs. The sums expected from the sale of the 4G spectrum and Swiss tax repatriation represent the majority of the additional receipts the Treasury intends to offset against the tax reductions and investment but both are uncertain. The Chancellor must also use the 2013 Budget to set out a clearer strategy for fuel duty over at least the medium term

Budget 2013

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Author : Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee
language : en
Publisher: The Stationery Office
Release Date : 2013-04-22

Budget 2013 written by Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee and has been published by The Stationery Office this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-04-22 with Business & Economics categories.

The Treasury Committee's report on Budget 2013 focuses on: macroeconomy; the public finances; monetary policy; taxation; departmental spending; housing; energy policy; premature disclosure of budget information; Parliamentary timing. The report contains 46 conclusions and recommendations. Particular attention is paid to the Help to Buy housing policy, which is considered a work in progress which may have unintended consequences and may not help first-time buyers. The Committee poses a number of questions for the Chancellor on the policy. Overall, if the Government's priority was housing supply, its housing measures should have concentrated there. On energy it is unclear which Government Department is in the lead for energy policy and this lack of clarity must be addressed. The changes to the monetary policy remit announced by the Chancellor at the time of Budget 2013 create uncertainty. Tax complexity and instability remain of considerable concern. The Committee will monitor whether the Government anti-avoidance measures succeed in generating the revenue predicted of them. In addition, the Committee invited comments from three accounting bodies on how Budget 2013 meets the Committee's tax policy principles: basic fairness; supporting growth and encouraging competition; certainty, including simplicity; stability; practicality; and coherence.

Hc 870 Autumn Statement 2014

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Author : Great Britain. Parliament. House of Commons. Treasury Committee
language : en
Publisher: The Stationery Office
Release Date : 2015

Hc 870 Autumn Statement 2014 written by Great Britain. Parliament. House of Commons. Treasury Committee and has been published by The Stationery Office this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with Business & Economics categories.

The Treasury has again been unable to provide all the information needed by deadlines agreed with the OBR. The Government may, as the Chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility suggested, have decided that for political reasons this was a "price worth paying." This would set an undesirable precedent. The work of the Office for Budget Responsibility depends on the Treasury meeting the agreed deadlines. The Committee welcomes the OBR's innovation of providing uncertainty ratings for policy costings. The Committee recommends in future that the OBR publish a breakdown of the uncertainty rating assessment against the three criteria for all announced measures at Autumn Statements and Budgets. The Committee also welcomes the Government's continued publication of the distributional analysis of the Government's policy changes and recommends that the next Government continue with this important aid to transparency. The current inflation target set by the Government is symmetrical, and is 2 per cent at all times. Several witnesses alluded to the risks of very low inflation and subsequent deflation, including the Chancellor. The Chancellor has publicly welcomed the current level of inflation. This is not likely to help anchor inflationary expectations. The Governor of the Bank of England is required to write to explain to the Chancellor why inflation has fallen below 1 per cent. It is important to avoid mixed messages on inflation targeting. The Bank of England should undertake research on the effect of net migration, and the potential for future net migration, on the supply of labour and wage growth as part of the work on meeting the MPC's remit. The Treasury should ensure that discussions within Government on immigration policy fully consider the requirements of the economy.