Economics Of Pessimism And Optimism
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Economics Of Pessimism And Optimism
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Author : Kiyohiko G. Nishimura
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-11-13
Economics Of Pessimism And Optimism written by Kiyohiko G. Nishimura and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-13 with Business & Economics categories.
This is the first book to investigate individual’s pessimistic and optimistic prospects for the future and their economic consequences based on sound mathematical foundations. The book focuses on fundamental uncertainty called Knightian uncertainty, where the probability distribution governing uncertainty is unknown, and it provides the reader with methods to formulate how pessimism and optimism act in an economy in a strict and unified way. After presenting decision-theoretic foundations for prudent behaviors under Knightian uncertainty, the book applies these ideas to economic models that include portfolio inertia, indeterminacy of equilibria in the Arrow-Debreu economy and in a stochastic overlapping-generations economy, learning, dynamic asset-pricing models, search, real options, and liquidity preferences. The book then proceeds to characterizations of pessimistic (ε-contaminated) and optimistic (ε-exuberant) behaviors under Knightian uncertainty and people’s inherent pessimism (surprise aversion) and optimism (surprise loving). Those characterizations are shown to be useful in understanding several observed behaviors in the global financial crisis and in its aftermath. The book is highly recommended not only to researchers who wish to understand the mechanism of how pessimism and optimism affect economic phenomena, but also to policy makers contemplating effective economic policies whose success delicately hinges upon people’s mindsets in the market. Kiyohiko Nishimura is Professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) and Professor Emeritus and Distinguished Project Research Fellow of the Center for Advanced Research in Finance at The University of Tokyo. Hiroyuki Ozaki is Professor of Economics at Keio University.
Optimism Pessimism And Short Term Fluctuations
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Author : Gabriel Di Bella
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-01-05
Optimism Pessimism And Short Term Fluctuations written by Gabriel Di Bella and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-01-05 with Business & Economics categories.
Economic theory offers several explanations as to why shifting expectations about future economic activity affect current demand. Abstracting from whether changes in expectations originate from swings in beliefs or fundamentals, we test empirically whether more optimistic or pessimistic potential output forecasts trigger short-term fluctuations in private consumption and investment. Relying on a dataset of actual data and forecasts for 89 countries over the 1990-2022 period, we find that private economic agents learn from different sources of in- formation about future potential output growth, and adjust their current demand accordingly over the two years following the shock in expectations. To provide a theoretical foundation to the empirical analysis, we also propose a simple Keynesian model that highlights the role of expectations about long-term output in determining short-term economic activity.
Growth Makes You Happy
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Author : Peter De Keyzer
language : en
Publisher: Lannoo Publishers
Release Date : 2014-07
Growth Makes You Happy written by Peter De Keyzer and has been published by Lannoo Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-07 with Business & Economics categories.
"Many economists feed today's pessimism with regard to the future. Peter De Keyzer is a welcome exception. Yes, there are problems, but this book shows that there are also solutions. There is reason for optimism." - Professor Paul De Grauwe, London School of Economics "The economy has to keep growing." So says top economist Peter De Keyzer. In his view, a free market and intelligent growth are necessary for our continued wealth and well-being. Better yet: economic growth is the only recipe for guaranteeing more freedom and more prosperity for all. Nevertheless, after nearly five years of crisis, one no longer seems to believe in economic progress. Growth Makes You Happy is a solidly argued plea in favour of more optimism, more risk, less collectivism, and more freedom.
Firms Optimism And Pessimism
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Author : Rüdiger Bachmann
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Firms Optimism And Pessimism written by Rüdiger Bachmann and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Economics categories.
Are firms' expectations systematically too optimistic or too pessimistic? Does it matter? We use micro data from the West German manufacturing subset of the IFO Business Climate Survey to infer quarterly production changes at the firm level and combine them with production expectations over a quarterly horizon in the same survey to construct series of quantitative firm-specific expectation errors. We find that depending on the details of the empirical strategy at least 6 percent and at most 34 percent of firms systematically over- or underpredict their one-quarter-ahead upcoming production. In a simple neoclassical heterogeneous-firm model these expectational biases lead to factor misallocations that cause welfare losses which in the worst case are comparable to conventional estimates of the welfare costs of business cycles fluctuations. In more conservative calibrations the welfare losses are even smaller.
It S Better Than It Looks
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Author : Gregg Easterbrook
language : en
Publisher: Hachette UK
Release Date : 2018-02-20
It S Better Than It Looks written by Gregg Easterbrook and has been published by Hachette UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-02-20 with History categories.
Is civilization teetering on the edge of a cliff? Or are we just climbing higher than ever? Most people who read the news would tell you that 2017 is one of the worst years in recent memory. We're facing a series of deeply troubling, even existential problems: fascism, terrorism, environmental collapse, racial and economic inequality, and more. Yet this narrative misses something important: by almost every meaningful measure, the modern world is better than it ever has been. In the United States, disease, crime, discrimination, and most forms of pollution are in long-term decline, while longevity and education keep rising and economic indicators are better than in any past generation. Worldwide, malnutrition and extreme poverty are at historic lows, and the risk of dying by war or violence is the lowest in human history. It's not a coincidence that we're confused -- our perspectives on the world are blurred by the rise of social media, the machinations of politicians, and our own biases. Meanwhile, political reforms like the Clean Air Act and technological innovations like the hybridization of wheat have saved huge numbers of lives. In that optimistic spirit, Easterbrook offers specific policy reforms to address climate change, inequality, and other problems, and reminds us that there is real hope in conquering such challenges. In an age of discord and fear-mongering, It's Better Than It Looks will profoundly change your perspective on who we are, where we're headed, and what we're capable of.
The Rational Optimist
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Author : Matt Ridley
language : en
Publisher: Fourth Estate (GB)
Release Date : 2011
The Rational Optimist written by Matt Ridley and has been published by Fourth Estate (GB) this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with Business & Economics categories.
The "New York Times"-bestselling author of "Genome" and "The Red Queen" offers a provocative case for an economics of hope, arguing that the benefits of commerce, technology, innovation, and change--cultural evolution--will inevitably increase human prosperity.
Elasticity Optimism
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2009-12-01
Elasticity Optimism written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
In most macroeconomic models, the substitutability between domestic and foreign goods is calibrated using aggregated data. This imposes homogeneous elasticities across goods, and the calibration is only valid under this assumption. If elasticities are heterogeneous, the aggregate substitutability is a weighted average of good-specific elasticities, which in general cannot be inferred from aggregated data. We identify structurally the substitutability in US goods using multilateral trade data. We impose homogeneity, and find an aggregate elasticity similar in value to conventional macroeconomic estimates. It is more than twice larger with sectoral heterogeneity. We discuss the implications in various areas of international economics.
The Optimism Bias
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Author : Tali Sharot
language : en
Publisher: Vintage
Release Date : 2011-06-14
The Optimism Bias written by Tali Sharot and has been published by Vintage this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-06-14 with Science categories.
Psychologists have long been aware that most people maintain an irrationally positive outlook on life—but why? Turns out, we might be hardwired that way. In this absorbing exploration, Tali Sharot—one of the most innovative neuroscientists at work today—demonstrates that optimism may be crucial to human existence. The Optimism Bias explores how the brain generates hope and what happens when it fails; how the brains of optimists and pessimists differ; why we are terrible at predicting what will make us happy; how emotions strengthen our ability to recollect; how anticipation and dread affect us; how our optimistic illusions affect our financial, professional, and emotional decisions; and more. Drawing on cutting-edge science, The Optimism Bias provides us with startling new insight into the workings of the brain and the major role that optimism plays in determining how we live our lives.
The Rhythmic Cycles Of Optimism And Pessimism
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Author : L. Peter Cogan
language : en
Publisher: New York : William-Frederick Press
Release Date : 1969
The Rhythmic Cycles Of Optimism And Pessimism written by L. Peter Cogan and has been published by New York : William-Frederick Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1969 with Business cycles categories.
Believing Cassandra
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Author : Alan AtKisson
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2011
Believing Cassandra written by Alan AtKisson and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with Business & Economics categories.
First Published in 2010. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.