Eliciting And Analyzing Expert Judgment
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Eliciting And Analyzing Expert Judgment
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Author : Mary A. Meyer
language : en
Publisher: SIAM
Release Date : 2001-01-01
Eliciting And Analyzing Expert Judgment written by Mary A. Meyer and has been published by SIAM this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001-01-01 with Mathematics categories.
Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon. Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background.
Eliciting And Analyzing Expert Judgment
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Author : Jane M. Booker
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1991
Eliciting And Analyzing Expert Judgment written by Jane M. Booker and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1991 with Decision making categories.
Eliciting And Analyzing Expert Judgement
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Author : Mary A. Meyer
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1990
Eliciting And Analyzing Expert Judgement written by Mary A. Meyer and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with Decision making categories.
Expert Judgement In Risk And Decision Analysis
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Author : Anca M. Hanea
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-02-19
Expert Judgement In Risk And Decision Analysis written by Anca M. Hanea and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-02-19 with Business & Economics categories.
This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
A Synthesized Methodology For Eliciting Expert Judgment For Addressing Uncertainty In Decision Analysis
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Author : Richard W. Monroe
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1997
A Synthesized Methodology For Eliciting Expert Judgment For Addressing Uncertainty In Decision Analysis written by Richard W. Monroe and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with Decision support systems categories.
Expert Judgment In Project Management
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Author : Paul Szwed
language : en
Publisher: Project Management Institute
Release Date : 2016-04-01
Expert Judgment In Project Management written by Paul Szwed and has been published by Project Management Institute this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Expert judgment is a major source of information that can provide vital input to project managers, who must ensure that projects are completed successfully, on time, and on budget. Too often, however, companies lack detailed processes for finding and consulting with experts—making it hard to match the required know-how with the project at hand. In Expert Judgment in Project Management: Narrowing the Theory-Practice Gap, Paul S. Szwed provides research that will help project managers become more adept at using expert judgment effectively.
Expertise And Decision Support
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Author : F. Bolger
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2007-08-19
Expertise And Decision Support written by F. Bolger and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-08-19 with Psychology categories.
This volume brings together a range of contributors from Europe and North America. All contributions were especially commissioned with a view to e- cidating a major multidisciplinary topic that is of concern to both academics and practitioners. The focus of the book is on expert judgment and its interaction with decision support systems. In the first part, the nature of expertise is discussed and characteristics of expert judges are described. Issues concemed with the eval- tion of judgment in the psychological laboratory are assessed and contrasted with studies of expert judgment in ecologically valid contexts. In addition, issues concerned with eliciting and validating expert knowledge are discussed. Dem- strations of good judgmental performance are linked to situational factors such as feedback cycles, and measurement of coherence and reliability in expert ju- ment is introduced as a baseline determinant of good judgmental performance. Issues concerned with the representation of elicited expert knowledge in kno- edge-based systems are evaluated and methods are described that have been shown to produce improvements in judgmental performance. Behavioral and mathematical ways of combining judgments from multiple experts are compared and contrasted. Finally, the issues developed in the preceding contributions are focused on current controversies in decision support. Expert judgment is utilized as a major input into decision analysis, forecasting with statistical models, and expert s- tems.
Expert Knowledge And Its Application In Landscape Ecology
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Author : Ajith H. Perera
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2011-10-21
Expert Knowledge And Its Application In Landscape Ecology written by Ajith H. Perera and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-10-21 with Science categories.
Typically, landscape ecologists use empirical observations to conduct research and devise solutions for applied problems in conservation and management. In some instances, they rely on advice and input of experienced professionals in both developing and applying knowledge. Given the wealth of expert knowledge and the risks of its informal and implicit applications in landscape ecology, it is necessary to formally recognize and characterize expert knowledge and bring rigor to methods for its applications. In this context, the broad goal of this book is to introduce the concept of expert knowledge and examine its role in landscape ecological applications. We plan to do so in three steps: First we introduce the topic to landscape ecologists, explore salient characteristics of experts and expert knowledge, and describe methods used in capturing and formalizing that knowledge. Second, we present examples of research in landscape ecology from a variety of ecosystems and geographic locations that formally incorporate expert knowledge. These case studies address a range of topics that will interest landscape ecologists and other resource management and conservation professionals including the specific roles of expert knowledge in developing, testing, parameterizing, and applying models; estimating the uncertainty in expert knowledge; developing methods of formalizing and incorporating expert knowledge; and using expert knowledge as competing models and a source of alternate hypotheses. Third, we synthesize the state of knowledge on this topic and critically examine the advantages and disadvantages of incorporating expert knowledge in landscape ecological applications. The disciplinary subject areas we address are broad and cover much of the scope of contemporary landscape ecology, including broad-scale forest management and conservation, quantifying forest disturbances and succession, conservation of habitats for a range of avian and mammal species, vulnerability and conservation of marine ecosystems, and the spread and impacts of invasive plants. This text incorporates the collective experience and knowledge of over 35 researchers in landscape ecology representing a diverse range of disciplinary subject areas and geographic locations. Through this text, we will catalyze further thought and investigations on expert knowledge among the target readership of researchers, practitioners, and graduate students in landscape ecology.
Safety And Reliability Methodology And Applications
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Author : Tomasz Nowakowski
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2014-09-01
Safety And Reliability Methodology And Applications written by Tomasz Nowakowski and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-09-01 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Within the last fifty years the performance requirements for technical objects and systems were supplemented with: customer expectations (quality), abilities to prevent the loss of the object properties in operation time (reliability and maintainability), protection against the effects of undesirable events (safety and security) and the ability to
Elicitation
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Author : Luis C. Dias
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-11-16
Elicitation written by Luis C. Dias and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-16 with Business & Economics categories.
This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other’s developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts. Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.