Empirical Model Discovery And Theory Evaluation

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Empirical Model Discovery And Theory Evaluation

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Author : David F. Hendry
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2014-07-03

Empirical Model Discovery And Theory Evaluation written by David F. Hendry and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-07-03 with Business & Economics categories.

A synthesis of the authors' groundbreaking econometric research on automatic model selection, which uses powerful computational algorithms and theory evaluation. Economic models of empirical phenomena are developed for a variety of reasons, the most obvious of which is the numerical characterization of available evidence, in a suitably parsimonious form. Another is to test a theory, or evaluate it against the evidence; still another is to forecast future outcomes. Building such models involves a multitude of decisions, and the large number of features that need to be taken into account can overwhelm the researcher. Automatic model selection, which draws on recent advances in computation and search algorithms, can create, and then empirically investigate, a vastly wider range of possibilities than even the greatest expert. In this book, leading econometricians David Hendry and Jurgen Doornik report on their several decades of innovative research on automatic model selection. After introducing the principles of empirical model discovery and the role of model selection, Hendry and Doornik outline the stages of developing a viable model of a complicated evolving process. They discuss the discovery stages in detail, considering both the theory of model selection and the performance of several algorithms. They describe extensions to tackling outliers and multiple breaks, leading to the general case of more candidate variables than observations. Finally, they briefly consider selecting models specifically for forecasting.

The Palgrave Companion To Oxford Economics

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Author : Robert A. Cord
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-06-16

The Palgrave Companion To Oxford Economics written by Robert A. Cord and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-06-16 with Business & Economics categories.

The University of Oxford has been and continues to be one of the most important global centres for economics. With six chapters on themes in Oxford economics and 24 chapters on the lives and work of Oxford economists, this volume shows how economics became established at the University, how it produced some of the world’s best-known economists, including Francis Ysidro Edgeworth, Roy Harrod and David Hendry, and how it remains a global force for the very best in teaching and research in economics. With original contributions from a stellar cast, this volume provides economists – especially those interested in macroeconomics and the history of economic thought – with the first in-depth analysis of Oxford economics.

Milton Friedman

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Author : Robert A. Cord
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2016-05-20

Milton Friedman written by Robert A. Cord and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-05-20 with Business & Economics categories.

Milton Friedman is widely regarded as one of the most influential economists of the twentieth century. Although he made many important contributions to both economic theory and policy - most clearly demonstrated by his development of and support for monetarism - he was also active in various spheres of public policy, where he more often than not pursued his championing of the free market and liberty. This volume assesses the importance of the full range of Friedman's ideas, from his work on methodology in economics, his highly innovative consumption theory, and his extensive research on monetary economics, to his views on contentious social and political issues such as education, conscription, and drugs. It also presents personal recollections of Friedman by some of those who knew him, both as students and colleagues, and offers new evidence on Friedman's interactions with other noted economists, including George Stigler and Lionel Robbins. The volume provides readers with an up to date account of Friedman's work and continuing influence and will help to inform and stimulate further research across a variety of areas, including macroeconomics, the history of economic thought, as well as the development and different uses of public policy. With contributions from a stellar cast, this book will be invaluable to academics and students alike.

Linear Models And Time Series Analysis

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Author : Marc S. Paolella
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2018-12-17

Linear Models And Time Series Analysis written by Marc S. Paolella and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-12-17 with Mathematics categories.

A comprehensive and timely edition on an emerging new trend in time series Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis: Regression, ANOVA, ARMA and GARCH sets a strong foundation, in terms of distribution theory, for the linear model (regression and ANOVA), univariate time series analysis (ARMAX and GARCH), and some multivariate models associated primarily with modeling financial asset returns (copula-based structures and the discrete mixed normal and Laplace). It builds on the author's previous book, Fundamental Statistical Inference: A Computational Approach, which introduced the major concepts of statistical inference. Attention is explicitly paid to application and numeric computation, with examples of Matlab code throughout. The code offers a framework for discussion and illustration of numerics, and shows the mapping from theory to computation. The topic of time series analysis is on firm footing, with numerous textbooks and research journals dedicated to it. With respect to the subject/technology, many chapters in Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis cover firmly entrenched topics (regression and ARMA). Several others are dedicated to very modern methods, as used in empirical finance, asset pricing, risk management, and portfolio optimization, in order to address the severe change in performance of many pension funds, and changes in how fund managers work. Covers traditional time series analysis with new guidelines Provides access to cutting edge topics that are at the forefront of financial econometrics and industry Includes latest developments and topics such as financial returns data, notably also in a multivariate context Written by a leading expert in time series analysis Extensively classroom tested Includes a tutorial on SAS Supplemented with a companion website containing numerous Matlab programs Solutions to most exercises are provided in the book Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis: Regression, ANOVA, ARMA and GARCH is suitable for advanced masters students in statistics and quantitative finance, as well as doctoral students in economics and finance. It is also useful for quantitative financial practitioners in large financial institutions and smaller finance outlets.

Twentieth Century Philosophy Of Science A History Third Edition

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Author : Thomas J. Hickey
language : en
Publisher: Thomas J. Hickey
Release Date : 2016-12-21

Twentieth Century Philosophy Of Science A History Third Edition written by Thomas J. Hickey and has been published by Thomas J. Hickey this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-12-21 with Philosophy categories.

History of twentieth-century philosophy of science opens with an introduction to contemporary philosophy of science as of the beginning of the twenty-first century, and describes the new specialty of computational philosophy of science. Seven chapters describing the philosophies of several major philosophers of science follow this introductory chapter. These major philosophers include Ernst Mach and Pierre Duhem, Rudolf Carnap and Willard Van Quine, Werner Heisenberg, Karl Popper, Thomas Kuhn and Paul Feyerabend, Norwood Russell Hanson, and Paul Thagard and Herbert Simon. The book concludes with a large bibliography.

Rescuing Econometrics

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Author : Duo Qin
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2023-12-01

Rescuing Econometrics written by Duo Qin and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.

Haavelmo’s 1944 monograph, The Probability Approach in Econometrics, is widely acclaimed as the manifesto of econometrics. This book challenges Haavelmo’s probability approach, shows how its use is delivering defective and inefficient results, and argues for a paradigm shift in econometrics towards a full embrace of machine learning, with its attendant benefits. Machine learning has only come into existence over recent decades, whereas the universally accepted and current form of econometrics has developed over the past century. A comparison between the two is, however, striking. The practical achievements of machine learning significantly outshine those of econometrics, confirming the presence of widespread inefficiencies in current econometric research. The relative efficiency of machine learning is based on its theoretical foundation, and particularly on the notion of Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning. Careful examination reveals that PAC learning theory delivers the goals of applied economic modelling research far better than Haavelmo’s probability approach. Econometrics should therefore renounce its outdated foundation, and rebuild itself upon PAC learning theory so as to unleash its pent-up research potential. The book is catered for applied economists, econometricians, economists specialising in the history and methodology of economics, advanced students, philosophers of social sciences.

Business Cycles In The Run Of History

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Author : Thierry Aimar
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2015-11-26

Business Cycles In The Run Of History written by Thierry Aimar and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-26 with Business & Economics categories.

This book analyzes the development of economic cycles in the run of history. The focus is on the development of cycle theory, with maximum emphasis upon ideas. Chapter 1 delivers an overview of the debate about cycles before the 1970s. Chapter 2 completes this survey by presenting the main empirical investigations since that time. Finally, Chapters 3 and 4 illustrate the discourse, by presenting, in the tradition of Burns and Mitchell, original case studies on France, South Africa, and Germany.

Modelling Our Changing World

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Author : Jennifer L. Castle
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2019-08-30

Modelling Our Changing World written by Jennifer L. Castle and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-08-30 with Business & Economics categories.

This open access book focuses on the concepts, tools and techniques needed to successfully model ever-changing time-series data. It emphasizes the need for general models to account for the complexities of the modern world and how these can be applied to a range of issues facing Earth, from modelling volcanic eruptions, carbon dioxide emissions and global temperatures, to modelling unemployment rates, wage inflation and population growth. Except where otherwise noted, this book is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0.

A Macroeconometric Model For Saudi Arabia

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Author : Fakhri J. Hasanov
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2023-01-01

A Macroeconometric Model For Saudi Arabia written by Fakhri J. Hasanov and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This Open Access Brief presents the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM). KGEMM is a policy analysis tool for examining the impacts of domestic policy measures and global economic and energy shocks on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The model has eight blocks (real sector, fiscal, monetary, external sector, price, labor and wages, energy, population, and age cohorts) that interact with each other to represent the Kingdom’s macroeconomy and energy linkages. It captures New Keynesian demand-side features anchored to medium-run equilibrium and long-run aggregate supply. It applies a cointegration and equilibrium correction modeling (ECM) methodology to time series data to estimate the model’s behavioral equations in the framework of Autometrics, a general-to-specific econometric modeling strategy. Hence, the model combines ‘theory-driven’ approach with ‘data-driven’ approach. The Brief begins with an introduction to the theoretical framework of the model and the KGEMM methodology and then walks the reader through the structure of the model and its behavioral equations. The book closes with simulations showing the application of the model. Providing a detailed introduction to a cutting-edge, robust predictive model, this Brief will be of great use to researchers and policymakers interested in macroeconomics, energy economics, econometrics, and more specifically, the economy of Saudi Arabia.

The Sage Handbook Of Electoral Behaviour

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Author : Kai Arzheimer
language : en
Publisher: SAGE
Release Date : 2017-02-27

The Sage Handbook Of Electoral Behaviour written by Kai Arzheimer and has been published by SAGE this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-02-27 with Political Science categories.

The study of voting behaviour remains a vibrant sub-discipline of political science. The Handbook of Electoral Behaviour is an authoritative and wide ranging survey of this dynamic field, drawing together a team of the world′s leading scholars to provide a state-of-the-art review that sets the agenda for future study. Taking an interdisciplinary approach and focusing on a range of countries, the handbook is composed of eight parts. The first five cover the principal theoretical paradigms, establishing the state of the art in their conceptualisation and application, and followed by chapters on their specific challenges and innovative applications in contemporary voting studies. The remaining three parts explore elements of the voting process to understand their different effects on vote outcomes. The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour is an essential benchmark publication for advanced students, researchers and practitioners in the fields of politics, sociology, psychology and research methods.