Error Assessment Of National Water Model Analysis Assimilation And Short Range Forecasts
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Error Assessment Of National Water Model Analysis Assimilation And Short Range Forecasts
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Author : Andrew Austin-Petersen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
Error Assessment Of National Water Model Analysis Assimilation And Short Range Forecasts written by Andrew Austin-Petersen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.
Flooding is the costliest natural disaster in the United States and tragically often leads to loss of life. Flood prediction, response and mitigation are therefore critical areas of research and have been for many decades. Hydrologic and hydraulic models are a key component of flood prediction methods and highly detailed models have been implemented in many areas of high risk which often correspond to areas with high population. However, the high cost and complexity of highly detailed models means that many areas of the US are not covered by flood prediction early warning systems. Recent increases in computational power and increased resolution and coverage of remotely sensed data have allowed for the development of a continental scale streamflow prediction system known as the National Water Model which is currently forecasting streamflow values for over 2.7 million stream reaches across the US. Flood inundation predictions can be derived from the National Water Model using digital elevation data to extract reach-scale rating curves and therefore river stage height. Using the height above nearest drainage method, flood inundation maps can be created from the stage height at relatively low computational cost at continental scale. The National Water Model is currently operating as a deterministic model for short-term predictions and does not currently include an estimate of the uncertainty in these predictions. The final streamflow values are at the end of a chain of models which originate from precipitation forecasts and go through rainfall-runoff and finally routing modules. The total uncertainty in the streamflow predictions is therefore a function of the uncertainty in each step. Uncertainty analysis commonly relies on an assessment of uncertainty in model parameters and boundary conditions, the use of perturbed inputs or through comparison of several different models of the same systems. Estimated uncertainty from the first model in a chain can then be propagated to the next model and so on until a final estimate is achieved. Unfortunately, the National Water Model is operated on a super computer and the details of the model are not available for perturbation analysis. One step in the National Water Model hourly cycle is the assimilation of USGS gage data which allows for corrections to the model state before the forecast simulation is made. This excludes USGS gage data from being used as a verification dataset. Even so, it is still an informative exercise to compare NWM predictions at these sites. There are numerous local and regional gaging stations which are not assimilated into the National Water Model and can be used as an independent check on the model output. Recent flooding in the Llano River basin in central Texas provides an opportunity to compare National Water Model predictions to both USGS and non-USGS gage readings. This thesis presents an assessment of the error in National Water Model predictions in the Llano River basin
Flood Forecasting
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Author : Thomas E. Adams
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2024-09-18
Flood Forecasting written by Thomas E. Adams and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-09-18 with Science categories.
Flood Forecasting: A Global Perspective, Second Edition covers hydrologic forecasting systems on both a national and regional scale. This updated edition includes a breakdown by county contribution and solutions to common issues with a wide range of approaches to address the difficulties inherent in the development, implementation and operational success of national-scale flood forecasting systems. Special attention is given to recent advances in machine learning techniques for flood forecasting. Overall, the information will lead to improvements of existing systems and provide a valuable reference on the intricacies of forecast systems in different parts of the world. - Covers global and regional systems, thus allowing readers to understand the different forecasting systems and how they developed - Offers practical applications for groups trying to improve existing flood forecasting systems - Includes innovative solutions for those interested in developing new systems - Contains analytical and updated information on forecasting and monitoring systems
Short And Medium Range Numerical Weather Prediction
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Author : Matsuno, T.
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1987
Short And Medium Range Numerical Weather Prediction written by Matsuno, T. and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1987 with Meteorology categories.
Completing The Forecast
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2006-11-09
Completing The Forecast written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-11-09 with Science categories.
Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Monthly Weather Review
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1989
Monthly Weather Review written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1989 with Meteorology categories.
Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer Schemes And Large Scale Hydrological Models
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Author : A. J. Dolman
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2001
Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer Schemes And Large Scale Hydrological Models written by A. J. Dolman and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with Climatic changes categories.
International Aerospace Abstracts
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1999
International Aerospace Abstracts written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Aeronautics categories.
Copulas And Its Application In Hydrology And Water Resources
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Author : Lu Chen
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-06-28
Copulas And Its Application In Hydrology And Water Resources written by Lu Chen and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-28 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book presents an overview of copula theory and its application in hydrology, and provides valuable insights, useful methods and practical applications for multivariate hydrological analysis using copulas. In addition, it extends the traditional bivariate model to trivariate or multivariate models. The specific applications covered include the study of flood frequency analysis, drought frequency analysis, dependence analysis, flood coincidence risk analysis and statistical simulation using copulas. The book offers a valuable guide for researchers, scientists and engineers working in hydrology and water resources, and will also benefit graduate or doctoral students with a basic grasp of copula functions who want to learn about the latest research developments in the field.
Meteorological And Geoastrophysical Abstracts
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1997
Meteorological And Geoastrophysical Abstracts written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with Cosmic physics categories.
Scientific And Technical Aerospace Reports
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1995
Scientific And Technical Aerospace Reports written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1995 with Aeronautics categories.