Essays In Decision Making
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Essays In Decision Making
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Author : Mark H Karwan
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1996-12-13
Essays In Decision Making written by Mark H Karwan and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1996-12-13 with categories.
Essays On Decision Making
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Essays On Decision Making written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Decision making categories.
The three essays in this dissertation examine individual decision making from a behavioral economics perspective. The first two essays report the results of an experiment that examine bidding behavior and belief formation in market-like environments with common values. In the first essay, using elicited beliefs of bidders on the value of the object at different stages of bidding, I examine whether information cascades and rational herding can be credited for the occurrence of the 'winners' curse' I find that the role of information cascades in the occurrence of the winner's curse is marginal and bidders tend to give more weight to private information in making the bidding decisions. The winner's curse is caused primarily by herding due to disconfirmation bias and conservatism in updating beliefs. In the second essay, I extend the analysis to understand heuristics and biases like confirmation bias, disconfirmation bias, conservatism and overreaction exhibited by decision makers in the formation of subjective beliefs. The results show hardly any evidence for Bayesian updating by the bidders. Confirmation bias, disconfirmation bias and heuristics like conservatism and are observed in the formation of beliefs but are sensitive to treatment conditions. Non-optimal belief formation due to upwardly biased prior beliefs and conservatism in updating beliefs are responsible for overbidding in markets with sequential bids and common values. Another important finding is that Perfect Bayesian equilibrium behavior is consistent with the presence of biases and heuristics. The third essay estimates a series of random parameter logit models of the college-to-work migration decisions of technology graduates and holders of doctorates within the United States. I employ detailed information on the migration-relevant characteristics of individuals, as well as on their actual origins and destinations at the metropolitan scale. The results demonstrate that science and technology graduates migrate to better educated places, other things equal; that PhD graduates pay greater attention to amenity characteristics than other degree holders; and that foreign students from some immigrant groups migrate to places where those groups are concentrated.
Essays On Economic Decisions Under Uncertainty
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Author : Jacques Drèze
language : en
Publisher: CUP Archive
Release Date : 1990-05-25
Essays On Economic Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Jacques Drèze and has been published by CUP Archive this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990-05-25 with Business & Economics categories.
Professor Dreze is a highly respected mathematical economist and econometrician. This book brings together some of his major contributions to the economic theory of decision making under uncertainty, and also several essays. These include an important essay on 'Decision theory under moral hazard and state dependent preferences' that significantly extends modern theory, and which provides rigorous foundations for subsequent chapters. Topics covered within the theory include decision theory, market allocation and prices, consumer decisions, theory of the firm, labour contracts, and public decisions.
Essays And Surveys On Multiple Criteria Decision Making
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Author : Pierre Hansen
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 1983
Essays And Surveys On Multiple Criteria Decision Making written by Pierre Hansen and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1983 with Business & Economics categories.
The Fifth International Conference on Multiple Criteria Decision Making, not suprisingly, had several objectives. First, it aimed at beinq a forum for exchange and intensive discussion of recent ideas on theory and practice of MCDM, following the now well-established tradition of the previous meetings in the series, organized by H. Thiriez and S. Zionts in Jouy-en-Josas (1975), S. Zionts in Buffalo (1977), G. Fandel and T. Gal in Hagen/Konigswinter (1979) and J. Morse in Newark (1980). Second, closer contacts Nere desired between participants in these meetings and other active groups in the field, prominent among which is the European Working Group on Multiple Criteria Decision Aid. Third, participation of senior or junior researchers who had recently developped important new methodolo0ies, such as the Analytical Hierarchy Process, was actively sought for. Fourth, a synthesis of the rapidly expanding field of MCDM was to be made through selective surveys by leading researchers in the various areas it comprises. Fifth, cross-fertilization and multidisciplinary research was to be encouraged through presentations on the connections between MCDM and mathematics, economics, game theory, computer science and other subjects. Sixth, much emphasis was to be given to real-world applications of MCDM, particularly large scale ones and/or pioneering work in new fields. The present volume reflects the general agreement observed among participants that these goals were largely attained.
Essays On Decision Making Under Uncertainty
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Author : Di Wang
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
Essays On Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Di Wang and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.
Encyclopedia Of Medical Decision Making
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Author : Michael W. Kattan
language : en
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Release Date : 2009-08-15
Encyclopedia Of Medical Decision Making written by Michael W. Kattan and has been published by SAGE Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-08-15 with Medical categories.
Decision making is a critical element in the field of medicine that can lead to life-or-death outcomes, yet it is an element fraught with complex and conflicting variables, diagnostic and therapeutic uncertainties, patient preferences and values, and costs. Together, decisions made by physicians, patients, insurers, and policymakers determine the quality of health care, quality that depends inherently on counterbalancing risks and benefits and competing objectives such as maximizing life expectancy versus optimizing quality of life or quality of care versus economic realities. Broadly speaking, concepts in medical decision making (MDM) may be divided into two major categories: prescriptive and descriptive. Work in the area of prescriptive MDM investigates how medical decisions should be done using complicated analyses and algorithms to determine cost-effectiveness measures, prediction methods, and so on. In contrast, descriptive MDM studies how decisions actually are made involving human judgment, biases, social influences, patient factors, and so on. The Encyclopedia of Medical Decision Making gives a gentle introduction to both categories, revealing how medical and healthcare decisions are actually made—and constrained—and how physician, healthcare management, and patient decision making can be improved to optimize health outcomes. Key Features Discusses very general issues that span many aspects of MDM, including bioethics; health policy and economics; disaster simulation modeling; medical informatics; the psychology of decision making; shared and team medical decision making; social, moral, and religious factors; end-of-life decision making; assessing patient preference and patient adherence; and more Incorporates both quantity and quality of life in optimizing a medical decision Considers characteristics of the decisionmaker and how those characteristics influence their decisions Presents outcome measures to judge the quality or impact of a medical decision Examines some of the more commonly encountered biostatistical methods used in prescriptive decision making Provides utility assessment techniques that facilitate quantitative medical decision making Addresses the many different assumption perspectives the decision maker might choose from when trying to optimize a decision Offers mechanisms for defining MDM algorithms With comprehensive and authoritative coverage by experts in the fields of medicine, decision science and cognitive psychology, and healthcare management, this two-volume Encyclopedia is a must-have resource for any academic library.
Essays On Decision Making Under Risk In Decision Theory And Auction Theory
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Essays On Decision Making Under Risk In Decision Theory And Auction Theory written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with categories.
Seven Essays On The Genealogy Of Uncertainty
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Author : Stephen Nash
language : en
Publisher: Ethics International Press
Release Date : 2024-09-30
Seven Essays On The Genealogy Of Uncertainty written by Stephen Nash and has been published by Ethics International Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-09-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Uncertainty is critical to economic theory, mainly because it either supports, or undermines, many significant debates within economic theory. Despite the significance of uncertainty, this book represents the first attempt to comprehensively trace the genealogy of uncertainty, which is a procedure that Nietzsche used in relation to morality; one of the subjects that become logically redundant in the absence of uncertainty. On the one hand, this logical redundancy is problematic when considered in isolation, given the practical importance of morality. On the other hand, this logical redundancy becomes even more problematic, given that, at one time, uncertainty was widely accepted as an important part of the philosophical system. Here uncertainty played a pivotal role, in terms of explaining practical decision-making. Such an appreciation of uncertainty has recently been set aside by modern philosophy, which argues quantities of human labour provide virtually all economic value. Such an explanation of economic value excludes uncertainty, the many qualitative contributions of nature, and morality, even when one acknowledged the contribution to the understanding of uncertainty, as proposed by Frank Knight, in 1921. However, in contrast to Knight, who looked toward recent philosophy so as to support the existence of uncertainty, this genealogy looks to support the significance of uncertainty by understanding the philosophy that supported the idea of uncertainty for thousands of years, before the philosophy of John Locke. Specifically, Locke excludes uncertainty from the analysis of practical decision-making in general, and from economic decision-making in particular. Accordingly, it can be anticipated that the enclosed genealogy will assist economists to more adequately develop the idea of uncertainty within economic theory.
Decision Making With Asymmetric Information
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Author : Silvia Dominguez Martinez
language : en
Publisher: Rozenberg Publishers
Release Date : 2007
Decision Making With Asymmetric Information written by Silvia Dominguez Martinez and has been published by Rozenberg Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with categories.
Essays In Decision Theory Induced And Revealed Preference
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Author : Rui Tang
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
Essays In Decision Theory Induced And Revealed Preference written by Rui Tang and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with categories.
This collection of essays investigates dynamic choices and the revealed preference of indirect choices. In Chapter 1, I study dynamic choices when new information is ambiguous. I introduce a new updating rule, the conditional maximum likelihood rule (CML) for updating ambiguous information. CML satisfies a new axiom, increased sensitivity after updating, while existing updating rules do not. With CML, a decision maker's posterior is unaffected by the order in which independent signals arrive. CML accommodates recent experimental findings on updating ambiguous information and has applications on learning and information design. In Chapter 2, (co-authored with Mu Zhang), we propose a new model of menu preference that captures the optimism of decision makers. We model a decision maker who anticipates her preference to change in the future and optimistically evaluates each menu according to the best choice that could possibly be made by her future self. We characterize this menu preference, discuss its uniqueness and propose a comparative measure of optimism. The model connects optimism with the naive quasi-hyperbolic discounting model and has novel predictions on decision makers' choices over menus. In Chapter 3, (co-authored with Gaoji Hu, Jiangtao Li and John K.-H. Quah), we develop a theory for testing the rationality of decision makers when their indirect preferences over menus are observed. A preference over menus is said to be an indirect preference if it is induced by a preference over the objects that make up those menus. We consider partial information of a decision maker's ranking over certain menus and provide necessary and sufficient conditions on those rankings that guarantee the existence of a preference over objects that induces the observed menu rankings. We then apply this basic result to a wide variety of applications.