Essays On Investment And House Prices

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Essays On Investment And House Prices

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Author : Thang Long Tran
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014

Essays On Investment And House Prices written by Thang Long Tran and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.

This thesis combines four related essays that examine investment activities and housing dynamics in Australia. The first essay investigates the key drivers of Australian aggregate business investment. Tobin's q, income, cash flow and uncertainty impacts on investment are determined and disentangled. Uncertainty and demand constraints are revealed to be highly significant for investment over business cycle frequencies. The second essay examines the firm-level investment determinants of listed non-financial companies in the Australian stock market. Although both having negative effects on firm investment, firm specific uncertainty is more important in explaining firm investment than macroeconomic uncertainty. The third essay analyses the price dynamics of the Australian housing market during the last three decades using a housing behavioral economic model based on nominal variables and the behavior of house buyers. The empirical evidence shows that the proposed model is equivalent or even better than other conventional models in explaining house price dynamics. In the last essay, private housing investment in Australia since the 1980s is investigated using Tobin's q and stock-flow models. A long-term co-integration relationship between Tobin's q and the investment ratio, as posited by q theory is not found, while changes in q have an impact on investment in the short-term. The determinants extracted from the stock-flow model explain the movement of housing investment. Uncertainty and construction costs are revealed not to be highly significant for investment. There is evidence of a positive correlation between investment and business cycles.

Essays On Real Estate Investment

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Author : Yongqiang Chu
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008

Essays On Real Estate Investment written by Yongqiang Chu and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with categories.

Essays In Housing And Macroeconomy

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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005

Essays In Housing And Macroeconomy written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with categories.

Compared to the previous twenty years, residential investments in the US appear more stable after the mid-1980s. Chapter 2 explores key hypotheses regarding the underlying causes. In particular, it uses estimated DSGE models to examine whether a more responsive interest rate policy stabilizes the housing market by keeping inflation in check. These estimations indeed found a policy that has become more responsive over time. Counter-factual analysis confirms that the change stabilizes inflation as well as nominal interest rate. It does not, however, find the change in policy to have stabilizing effect on real economic activity including housing investment. It finds that smaller TFP shocks make modest contributions, while the biggest contributing factor to the fall in the housing volatility is a reduction in the sensitivity of the investment to demand variations. Chapter 3 constructs a richly specified model for the housing market to examine the empirical relevance of various costs and frictions, including the investment adjustment cost, sticky construction costs, search frictions, and sluggish adjustment of house prices. Using the US national-level quarterly data from 1985 and 2007, we find that the gradual adjustment of house prices is the most important and irreplaceable feature of the model. The key to developing an optimization-based empirical housing model, therefore, is to provide a structural interpretation for the slow adjustment in house prices. Chapter 4 uses US national-level time series of residential investment, price index of new houses, consumption and interest rate to explore whether the US, as a nation, experienced a drop in the price elasticity of supply of new housing. Maximum likelihood estimations with a simple stock-and-flow model found a statistically significant drop of the elasticity from 10 to 2.2, when the quarterly data between 1971 and 2007 are split at 1985. A richer model with mechanisms of gradual adjustment also indicates such a reduct.

Essays On The Household Level Effects Of House Price Growth

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Author : Claudia Ayanna Sitgraves
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009

Essays On The Household Level Effects Of House Price Growth written by Claudia Ayanna Sitgraves and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with categories.

This dissertation explores the effects of fluctuations in housing values on household saving and investment decisions. Chapter 1 examines the relationship between changes in housing values and household saving decisions. Fluctuations in housing values may affect household saving and consumption by increasing households' perceived wealth, or by relaxing borrowing constraints. Moreover, the increased liquidity of home equity during the recent housing boom may have led household behavior to respond more than in past years to changes in housing wealth. This chapter is the first analysis to provide evidence from household-level microdata suggesting that the housing wealth effect may have increased in line with increased access to housing-collateralized debt. Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation for the years 1984 - 2003, I estimate an average elasticity of household active saving with respect to MSA-level house prices of -0.222, which corresponds to a 1 cent decrease in annual active saving when housing wealth increases by 1 dollar. When I estimate housing wealth effects separately between 1984 and 1990, and between 1996 and 2003, I find smaller effects during the earlier period, but large and significant effects during the later period. During the later period, I estimate an average elasticity of household active saving with respect to MSA-level house prices of -1.044, which corresponds to a 3 cent decrease in annual active saving when housing wealth increases by 1 dollar. Further evidence comparing the magnitude of the wealth effect between different subpopulations -- older homeowners versus younger homeowners, and recent homebuyers versus those with longer tenure -- suggests that a relaxation of liquidity constraints, rather than changes in the composition of the homeowner population, is a central factor contributing to the increase in the housing wealth effect. Chapter 2 explores the connection between growth in housing values, uncertainty over future housing values, and property owners' investments in housing. Residential housing is a significant share of most American households' asset holdings. As such, the decision to build, to buy, or to make significant improvements to a home is driven not only by consumption considerations, but is also an investment decision. By modeling property owners' housing investment decisions using a framework of optimal capital investment where investments are irreversible and there is uncertainty in future asset values, this analysis theoretically predicts and empirically estimates the extent to which property owners respond to changes in the profitability of housing investment by making investments in their stock of housing. Using a unique dataset of residential sales, geographic information, and the universe of building permits issued in Los Angeles between 1999 and 2008, and focusing on nonresident landlords and "improver-movers"--Owner-occupiers who make improvements to their properties and subsequently sell the property, I find that when housing values increase, property owners are more likely to make capital investments, and that the value and square footage of these investments is larger. When house price volatility is high, property owners are less likely to make investments. However, conditional on the decision to invest, the value and square footage of investments is larger. This result is shown to be a consequence of property owners' optimally delaying capital investment when uncertainty over future prices is high. Chapter 3 documents the extent to which residential real estate development is cyclical - exhibiting periods of rapid expansion followed by periods of rapid contraction - using New York City as a case study. This chapter provides an overview of residential development activity in New York City during the years 2000 - 2008. In this analysis, I describe the effects of this real estate "boom" on the housing market in New York City during these years, and characterize the long-term effects of the "boom" and subsequent "bust" in residential development on the composition of the City's housing stock. Economic theories of cyclicality in real estate markets, outlined in this chapter, show that uncertainty over the exact timing of price declines coupled with a long development lag can lead to buildings being completed and new units entering the market even as prices decline. Although the elasticity of housing supply is lower in New York City than in other areas, building activity tends to follow a boom-and-bust pattern similar to other areas. Neighborhoods with higher levels of amenities experienced more growth in residential housing supply, and public involvement in development activity (both to facilitate and to restrict development) became less important for builders as the boom progressed. As building activity slows, City officials and developers are taking steps to ensure that stalled construction sites, rather than becoming eyesores and safety hazards, are preserved for future use.

Essays On Housing Prices

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Author : Yifan Chen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022

Essays On Housing Prices written by Yifan Chen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022 with categories.

This dissertation examines the dynamics between housing prices, firms, and households. The first chapter focuses on sequential information revelation in the housing markets; the second chapter investigates the impact of house price appreciation on the returns of value versus growth firms; the third chapter estimates the effect of gun control on home values. In Chapter 1, I use Amazon's progressive revelation of its new headquarters locations in Virginia and New York to demonstrate that the housing market fully incorporates information about future demand well before disclosure. Spatial difference-in-differences analysis shows that housing prices near the Virginia headquarters exhibit 4.9% premia before Amazon's headquarters decision but no additional increase upon decision. Price premia for New York reach 17.5% before the decision but disappear once Amazon cancels the headquarters. Other finalist cities exhibit no price premia, precluding the possibility of speculation. Overall, this study suggests that the housing market can quickly incorporate private information about future demand shocks. In Chapter 2, I investigate the value-growth premium puzzle by merging insights from urban economics and finance that relate firm location to its stock performance. The value-growth premium in locations with high historical house price appreciation is 3.6% per year larger than the premium in areas that experienced little house price appreciation. The results support investment-based models explaining the value premium; moreover I find the house price channel reduces returns of growth firms rather than increasing returns of value firms. House price appreciation remains significant after controlling for common explanations of the premium. In Chapter 3, using cross-border variation in the timing of state gun control law passage dates, I find that the introduction of universal background checks for gun sales results in a roughly 2.3 percent decline in housing prices on average. I find a more significant decrease in housing prices, i.e., up to 5.3 percent, if the state is neighboring a Republican rather than a Democratic state. This result is robust to several specification tests and does not appear to be associated with neighborhood crime rate changes.

Essays On The Housing Market And Home Prices

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Author : Calvin Zhang
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005

Essays On The Housing Market And Home Prices written by Calvin Zhang and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with categories.

This dissertation consists of three chapters that concern the housing market and home prices. The first chapter analyzes why foreclosures were more prevalent than short sales despite the advantages that short sales offered. The Great Recession led to widespread mortgage defaults, with borrowers resorting to both foreclosures and short sales to resolve their defaults. I first quantify the economic impact of foreclosures relative to short sales by comparing the home price implications of both. After accounting for omitted variable bias, I find that homes selling as a short sale transact at 8.5% higher prices on average than those that sell after foreclosure. Short sales also exert smaller negative externalities than foreclosures, with one short sale decreasing nearby property values by one percentage point less than a foreclosure. So why weren't short sales more prevalent? These home-price benefits did not increase the prevalence of short sales because free rents during foreclosures caused more borrowers to select foreclosures, even though higher advances led servicers to prefer more short sales. In states with longer foreclosure timelines, the benefits from foreclosures increased for borrowers, so short sales were less utilized. I find that one standard deviation increase in the average length of the foreclosure process decreased the short sale share by 0.35-0.45 standard deviation. My results suggest that policies that increase the relative attractiveness of short sales could help stabilize distressed housing markets. The second chapter analyzes how the housing market captures the efficiency of public goods. This chapter is co-authored with David Schönholzer. In the U.S., 36 million people live in unincorporated communities without separate municipal government, instead receiving limited local public goods by counties and special districts. This paper formalizes and empirically quantifies the extent of sorting induced by this arrangement of local governance. Based on predictions of a Tiebout model with heterogeneous income and preferences, we document the effect of municipal governance on housing supply, house prices, land prices, and public goods. We use a boundary discontinuity design and an event study design with administrative data from all boundary changes of 189 Californian cities, combined with the universe of individual property sales over the years 1988-2013. We find considerable sorting induced by municipal boundaries and their changes: sales prices are around $6,000 higher in municipalities and land values are 20% higher. Both housing supply and land values increase substantially after annexation. Changes in per capita expenditures and increases in the quality of police services provide suggestive evidence for public goods as the key mechanism for sorting. The third chapter analyzes the effects of real estate investments by foreign Chinese on local economies in the United States. This chapter is co-authored with Zhimin Li and Leslie Sheng Shen. Starting in 2007, the U.S. witnessed an unprecedented surge in housing purchases by foreign Chinese. We exploit cross-local-area variation in the concentration of Chinese population stemming from pre-sample period differences in Chinese population settlement to identify the economic effects of these investments. Using detailed transaction-level housing purchase data, we find housing investment by foreigners induces higher local area housing net wealth, leading to higher local employment in the non-tradable sectors. Our results suggest the improvement in household balance sheet resulting from capital inflow for housing investment in the U.S. played a mitigating role for the domestic economy during the Great Recession. Based on our empirical findings, we develop a framework that incorporates the housing net worth channel for interpreting the empirical estimates. Our evidence highlight the role of capital inflow and foreign investments on the domestic output and employment, especially in times of economic downturns.

Essays In Housing Markets And Financial Fragility

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Author : Deeksha Gupta
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018

Essays In Housing Markets And Financial Fragility written by Deeksha Gupta and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.

This dissertation is motivated by the housing crisis of 2008. It consists of three chapters. In the first chapter, "Too Much Skin-in-the-Game? The Effect of Mortgage Market Concentration on Credit and House Prices," I propose a new theory to help explain the housing crisis. During the housing boom, a small number of institutions--the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) and a few banks--held most of U.S. mortgage risk. I develop a theory in which such concentration of mortgage exposure can explain features of the housing crisis. I show that large lenders with many outstanding mortgages have incentives to extend risky credit to prop up house prices. An increase in concentration can lead to a boom with worsening credit quality and a subsequent bust with widespread defaults. In the second chapter, "Concentration and Lending in Mortgage Markets," joint with Ronel Elul and David Musto, we attempt to test the theory described in the first chapter. We provide evidence that concentration in mortgage markets can create perverse lending incentives. We exploit variation in the size of the GSEs' outstanding mortgage exposure across MSAs. Using a loan-level dataset, we provide evidence that the GSEs were more likely to engage in high-risk activities in areas where they had a large exposure to outstanding mortgages. We also provide evidence that this relationship is driven by an incentive to keep house prices high. In the final chapter, "Housing Booms and the Crowding-Out Effect," joint with Itay Goldstein, we study the effect that investment in real estate assets has on the economy. We develop a theory in which housing price booms can sometimes lead to a crowding-out of corporate investment. We show that an increase in real estate prices does not necessarily increase aggregate investment even when firms actively use real estate assets as collateral to borrow against and invest the proceeds in positive NPV projects. We argue that at times, it can be optimal to decrease the price of housing rather than to support high housing prices to stimulate the economy and characterize when this is the case.

Three Essays In Real Estate Finance

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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013

Three Essays In Real Estate Finance written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.

This thesis is a continuation to a large research agenda investigating how market frictions affect residential and commercial real estate markets and offers a more comprehensive study on two recent observations in U.S.: the foreclosure spillover effect in residential housing market and the increased Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) return volatility in commercial real estate market. Central to the concerns about the tremendous foreclosure wave since 2006 is that such incidents may impose negative externalities on neighborhood properties, and on the wider community. A large literature has documented that a foreclosed home depresses neighboring property prices. However, few studies attempt to explain why such a contagion effect exists. Utilizing a novel capital expenditure dataset and an improved test design, I demonstrate that foreclosures spread over through the following channels: (1) individual homeowners cut capital expenditures when home prices fall and the likelihood of foreclosure increases, which results in a lower neighborhood amenity; (2) the reduction in capital expenditure generates a negative externality by providing other homeowners a disincentive to spend money on home improvement; (3) under-investment deteriorates home quality and brings down home prices; and (4) the decline in property prices further worsens the under-investment problem and completes a feedback loop. To understand the exacerbated REITs return volatility, I use the following two new approaches. The first approach investigates the impact of asymmetric transaction costs on return dynamics in public and private real estate markets and validates model propositions with simulation and empirical tests. It proposes that trading volume moving from private market to listed market and more volatile underlying asset value at down time contribute to high volatility. The second approach studies the impact of firm level economic activities, financial leverage and market risk on REITs volatility, using U.S equity REITs data from 1995 to 2009. The findings uncover the following channels for recent increase in REIT return volatility: (1) REITs firms become more leveraged over time; (2) REITs' beta values and market return volatility increase in the crisis; (3) Economic activities, such as cash flow news and discount rate news, positively affect REIT return volatility. Among these factors, increasing beta is the most influential contributor.

Financial Constraints And House Prices

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Author : Heitor Almeida
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2000

Financial Constraints And House Prices written by Heitor Almeida and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with Cash flow categories.

Three Essays On Real Estate Finance

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Author : Xiaolong Liu
language : en
Publisher: Rozenberg Publishers
Release Date : 2010

Three Essays On Real Estate Finance written by Xiaolong Liu and has been published by Rozenberg Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with categories.