Essays On Preferential Trade Agreements Under Uncertainty
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Essays On Preferential Trade Agreements Under Uncertainty
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Author : Shafkat Ali
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Essays On Preferential Trade Agreements Under Uncertainty written by Shafkat Ali and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
This dissertation studies the formation of preferential trade agreements using a coalition formation approach in both certain and uncertain frameworks. It is at the intersection of international trade and cooperative game theory. In chapter 2 we consider a three-country model of oligopoly and trade under demand uncertainty. We endogenize the coalition structure that forms in a three stage game. We find that for small volatilities countries prefer global free trade. The more positively correlated two countries are the more likely they are to form a customs union. We also find that countries may wish to stand alone under certain variance-covariance configurations. In chapter 3 we add exogenous trade costs under both certainty and uncertainty. We find that trade costs critically affect choice of output by firms and choice of tariffs and coalitions by governments. With symmetric trade costs as trade costs vary we find different coalitions forming in equilibrium. The introduction of demand uncertainty affects coalition choices by changing the cutoff trade costs at which a country may be indifferent between two different coalitions. Further, coalitions that may form under certainty or low uncertainty may not form with high uncertainty. On the other hand under different configuration of trade costs coalitions that may not be feasible under certainty may be shown to be possible under uncertainty. In both cases, as long as trade costs are not prohibitive, as volatility in every market increases without bound, we get global free trade with probability one. As a special case we show that under certain conditions two geographically distant countries may choose to form a coalition excluding a nearby country if the market volatility and correlation between partner countries is high enough. .
Essays On Uncertainty And Escape In Trade Agreements
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Author : Mathias Herzing
language : sv
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005
Essays On Uncertainty And Escape In Trade Agreements written by Mathias Herzing and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with categories.
Essays On Trade Policy In Arab League Countries
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Author : Atika Benaddi
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Essays On Trade Policy In Arab League Countries written by Atika Benaddi and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
This dissertation consists of three essays which use the Arab League countries as a natural setting for empirical research quantifying the effects of different features of this region's trade policies on member countries. The first essay examines the effects of the different features of the Arab League's trade policy (preferential trade agreements, market power, and bound tariffs) on the multilateral tariffs applied by its member countries. Overall, our results suggest that preferential agreements have a building block effect on multilateral tariffs because Arab League members tend to lower their applied Most-Favored Nations (MFN) tariffs as they grant enhanced preferential access to their partners. Unlike earlier studies, we find that the formation of a customs union (CU) among Arab League members led to the same degree of external trade liberalization than forming a free trade area (FTA). Moreover, we find that high degree of importer market power tends to mitigate the building block effect of forming preferential trade agreements. The second essay investigates the effects of trade policy uncertainty on the entry decisions of exporters to Arab League markets. Using a product-level dataset on World Trade Organization (WTO) members exporting to Arab League countries for the years 1998-2015, we provide empirical evidence that trade policy uncertainty, a result of significant gaps between tariff bindings and applied tariffs (tariff water), led to the reduced entry of exporters in Arab League markets. We then extend our analysis to investigate the effects of policy uncertainty combined with additional uncertainty related to falling incomes associated with the 2007-2010 worldwide economic downturn. Our results suggest that this macroeconomic shock has contributed to a considerably more uncertain economic environment, thereby affecting the decision to enter these markets. We also analyze exporter decisions to enter new markets when the Arab League importing country exhibits high levels of market power. We find empirical evidence confirming that the effects of uncertainty on entry are magnified in the presence of high levels of market power. The third essay examines the effects of trade preferences granted by members of the Arab League on these countries' international import prices. According to the international trade literature, preferential trade agreements (PTAs) lower trade barriers on imported goods from preferential partners, leading to consumer gains from better quality products, lower prices for existing products, and deteriorating terms of trade of the importing country relative to preferential partners. Using product-level data from 1998-2011 with information on quality-adjusted international import price indexes, applied MFN tariffs, preferential tariffs, and market power for eleven Arab League countries, we estimate the international import price effects of trade agreements formed by Arab League countries. We find that a one percentage point decrease in applied MFN tariffs leads to a fall in international import prices of about 0.16 percentage points, while domestic prices of imported goods, as well as those produced domestically if they are homogeneous, would fall by 0.84 percentage points. We also find that a one percentage point decrease in preferential tariffs leads to 0.084 percentage point increase in international prices, while domestic prices of imported goods decrease by 0.92 percentage points. Moreover, we find no significant effects of MFN tariffs and preferential tariffs on international import prices under a customs union. Furthermore, our results provide no evidence that market power affects this measure, the international import price index, of terms of trade.
Three Essays On Institutions And International Economic Relations
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Author : Max Büge
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Three Essays On Institutions And International Economic Relations written by Max Büge and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
The objective of this PhD thesis is to to empirically assess the impact of different institutional frameworks on cross-border trade and direct investment. The thesis consists of three substantive essays. In the first essay, I analyze the repercussions of institutional uncertainty on international trade. The results imply that institutional uncertainty has a significant and robust negative impact on trade volumes. The second and the third chapters of the thesis focus on particular types of contracts among sovereign nations that govern their economic relations: preferential trade agreements and bilateral investment treaties. The objective of the second essay is to test the hypothesis that a preferential trade agreements increases the bilateral investment of its members and I find a strong and robust effect (for developed and developing countries alike). Based on the results of the second chapter, I test in a third essay whether a bilateral investment treaty between a developing and a developed country influences the partners’ trade flows, but the empirical effect of bilateral investment treaties on trade collapses once strict exogeneity is accounted for.
The Effects Of General Policy Uncertainty On Trade Flows And U S Wages
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Author : Tian Liu
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022
The Effects Of General Policy Uncertainty On Trade Flows And U S Wages written by Tian Liu and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022 with categories.
This dissertation consists of three essays at the crossroads of international trade and the labor market. We measure the degree of uncertainty using a general and well-established methodology based on Baker et al. (2016). We investigate the degree to which trade policy uncertainty (TPU) at the industry-country-year level affects the global trade flows of major importers and exporters (e.g., the U.S., Canada, China, Mexico, and the European Union). Similarly, we construct the U.S. index of economic uncertainty at the industry-year level to investigate its effects on U.S. wages. In the first essay, we use a text-mining approach to construct a general index of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) for the U.S. and some of its main trade partners. This TPU index captures uncertainty on U.S. trade policy at a very detailed level (partner and industry levels) from 2001 to 2017 based on US trade-related news information. It's general, thereby enabling us to control for uncertainty relative to the use of highly-regulated tariff barriers under the WTO, temporary trade barriers (TTB), export restrictions, and potential reinterpretations of trade-related national security concerns, among others. Results suggest that a one-standard-deviation increase in policy uncertainty tends to decrease U.S. imports by 1.14 percent. In contrast, uncertainty on the trade policy applied by U.S. trade partners tends to reduce U.S. exports only to markets where the importers display a significant market power level. The results also show that the effects of trade policy uncertainty are mitigated with the formation of preferential trade arrangements (PTAs). In the second essay, motivated by the important findings of U.S. TPU effects on U.S. trade flows, we extend the study to another four markets, namely, Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union, and their trade partners. We construct a TPU index for each of these four markets based on their news information using the same method applied to the first essay. Again, this TPU index captures uncertainty on the trade policies of these four markets at the importer-exporter-industry level from 2001 to 2017. The primary findings of the second essay are very much in line with the previous results. Uncertainty on the trade policy implemented by Canada, Mexico, China, and the EU tends to lower their imports. Specifically, a one-standard-deviation increase in policy uncertainty is associated with a decline of 0.71 percent in their imports. Moreover, uncertainty on the trade policy applied by the trade partners of these four groups is more likely to reduce their exports. Specifically, a one-standard-deviation increase in TPU leads to a decline of 0.62 percent in these four markets' exports. The impact of trade policy uncertainty on imports and exports for each of the four markets is also negative. In addition, PTAs tend to mitigate the negative effect of trade uncertainties on these four markets' trade flows. In the third essay, we study the reaction of the labor market to the economic uncertainty in the U.S. We specifically construct the U.S. economic uncertainty index with the same method we used to create the TPU in the previous two chapters on wages. The economic uncertainty index is generated based on U.S. economic-related news information that captures uncertainty on U.S. economic events and policies at the industry level from 2001 to 2018. Interestingly, the increase in economic uncertainty is likely to reduce wages in the U.S. labor market. Our result shows that the total effects of the concurrent and lagged economic uncertainty indexes cause a decline in wages by 2.12 percent. We also get plausible results by constructing alternative U.S. economic uncertainty indices using 1) newspapers released by other countries and 2) other countries' economic uncertainty indexes as instruments.
Methodology For Impact Assessment Of Free Trade Agreements
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Author : Michael G. Plummer
language : en
Publisher: Asian Development Bank
Release Date : 2011-02-01
Methodology For Impact Assessment Of Free Trade Agreements written by Michael G. Plummer and has been published by Asian Development Bank this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-02-01 with Political Science categories.
This publication displays the menu for choice of available methods to evaluate the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). It caters mainly to policy makers from developing countries and aims to equip them with some economic knowledge and techniques that will enable them to conduct their own economic evaluation studies on existing or future FTAs, or to critically re-examine the results of impact assessment studies conducted by others, at the very least.
Handbook Of Commercial Policy
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2016-11-02
Handbook Of Commercial Policy written by and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-02 with Business & Economics categories.
Handbook of Commercial Policy explores three main topics that permeate the study of commercial policy. The first section presents a broad set of basic empirical facts regarding the pattern and evolution of commercial policy, with the second section investigating the crosscutting legal issues relating to the purpose and design of agreements. Final sections cover key issues of commercial policy in the modern global economy. Every chapter in the book provides coverage from the perspectives of multilateral, and where appropriate, preferential trade agreements. While most other volumes are policy-oriented, this comprehensive guide explores the ways that intellectual thinking and rigor organize research, further making frontier-level synthesis and current theoretical, and empirical, research accessible to all. Covers the research areas that are critical for understanding how the world of commercial policy has changed, especially over the last 20 years Presents the way in which research on the topic has evolved Scrutinizes the economic modeling of bargaining and legal issues Useful for examining the theory and empirics of commercial policy
The Collapse Of Global Trade Murky Protectionism And The Crisis
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Author : Richard E. Baldwin
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011-03
The Collapse Of Global Trade Murky Protectionism And The Crisis written by Richard E. Baldwin and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-03 with Business & Economics categories.
The global financial crisis of 2008/9 is the Great Depression of the 21st century. For many though, the similarities stop at the Wall Street Crash as the current generation of policymakers have acted quickly to avoid the mistakes of the past. Yet the global crisis has made room for mistakes all of its own. While governments have apparently kept to their word on refraining from protectionist measures in the style of 1930s tariffs, there has been a disturbing rise in "murky protectionism." Seemingly benign, these crisis-linked policies are twisted to favour domestic firms, workers and investors. This book, first published as an eBook on VoxEU.org in March 2009, brings together leading trade policy practitioners and experts - including Australian Trade Minister Simon Crean and former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo. Initially its aim was to advise policymakers heading in to the G20 meeting in London, but since the threat of murky protectionism persists, so too do their warnings.
Economic Diplomacy
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Author : Chin L. Lim
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2011
Economic Diplomacy written by Chin L. Lim and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with Political Science categories.
Singapore, a small country with limited resources, has nevertheless played a significant role in regional and global trade negotiations. Its negotiators possess a wealth of knowledge and experiences and yet few have told their story. This book is a collection of sixteen essays by authors who have been closely involved in trade negotiations including GATT/WTO and bilateral free trade agreements. They share their experiences in such negotiations, how they promoted national interests and advanced the global trade agenda. It will appeal to readers who are interested in how international economic diplomacy is conducted, and Singapore's role and perspective as an open trading nation.
Regionalism In Trade Policy
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Author : Arvind Panagariya
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company
Release Date : 1999-10-18
Regionalism In Trade Policy written by Arvind Panagariya and has been published by World Scientific Publishing Company this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999-10-18 with Business & Economics categories.
The signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and recent expansions of the European Union have led to renewed efforts to create preferential trade areas (PTAs) around the world including Asia, Africa and Latin America. Because PTAs liberalize trade with union members but not the rest of the world, they are not necessarily a healthy development. By dividing the world into trade blocs, they also threaten to undermine the multilateral trading system. This collection of recently published essays by a leading critic of regionalism offers an assessment of the economic impact of PTAs on member countries and the world. The first set of essays present a theoretical analysis of the issues using simple economic models, and study the relationship between regionalism and multilateralism. Subsequent essays evaluate the role of PTAs in Asia, North America and Latin America. The general theme of the book is that, on balance, trade liberalization through PTAs is a mistake. Trade diversion, and the creation of complicated and discriminatory tariff regimes with increased tariffs for non-member countries — the consequences of PTAs — are likely to undermine the multilateral trading system. The book will be useful to academics as well as policy makers and policy analysts. Many of the essays have been featured in newspapers and journals such as the Financial Times, Economist, Journal of Commerce and International Herald Tribune. Some of these essays are already on many reading lists in the United States.