Estimating Potential Output In

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A Simple Multivariate Filter For Estimating Potential Output

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Author : Patrick Blagrave
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-04-07

A Simple Multivariate Filter For Estimating Potential Output written by Patrick Blagrave and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-04-07 with Business & Economics categories.

Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naïve statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.

Estimating Potential Output In

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Author : Guy Morel Kossivi Amouzou Agbe
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2025-04-18

Estimating Potential Output In written by Guy Morel Kossivi Amouzou Agbe and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-04-18 with categories.

Potential growth in Niger is estimated at around 6 percent with a structurally significant contribution of labor and peaks of growth associated with higher investment in physical capital. Growth in Niger is, however, constrained by weak productivity, limited structural transformation, and inadequate economic diversification, with downside risks stemming mainly from regional insecurity and adverse climate shocks. Key factors that could boost economic growth in Niger include investment in human capital, the development of the extractive sector and agro-industrial value chains and the diffusion of digital technologies.

Estimating Potential Output In Chile

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Author : Patrick Blagrave
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-10-14

Estimating Potential Output In Chile written by Patrick Blagrave and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-10-14 with Business & Economics categories.

Using a multivariate filter, we estimate potential growth rates in Chile’s mining and non-mining sectors. Estimates for the mining sector incorporate information on copper prices, whereas estimates for non-mining reflect information on inflation and unemployment rates. To better understand the drivers of potential growth, we decompose estimates into capital, labor (adjusted for human-capital and hours worked), and total-factor productivity using a production-function. Our estimates of potential output in Chile suggest that an important part of the recent growth slowdown has been structural, with potential-output growth slowing to 21⁄2 percent in recent years, although it plausibly could be higher in the medium-term.

A Simple Multivariate Filter For Estimating Potential Output

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Author : Patrick Blagrave
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-04-07

A Simple Multivariate Filter For Estimating Potential Output written by Patrick Blagrave and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-04-07 with Business & Economics categories.

Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naïve statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.

Estimating Potential Output With A Multivariate Filter

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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-12-01

Estimating Potential Output With A Multivariate Filter written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates, we find that the financial crisis has resulted in a reduction in potential output.

Estimating Potential Output For The U S Economy In A Model Framework

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Author : Albert J. Eckstein
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1976

Estimating Potential Output For The U S Economy In A Model Framework written by Albert J. Eckstein and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1976 with Economic forecasting categories.

Imf Estimates Of Potential Output

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Author : Ms.Paula De Masi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1997-12-01

Imf Estimates Of Potential Output written by Ms.Paula De Masi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.

The concepts of potential output and the output gap are central to the IMF’s analytical work in providing policy recommendations to member governments. This key role has stimulated research at the IMF to develop and refine estimation techniques. This paper summarizes the methodology and results of IMF research on potential output, which has focused mainly on the industrial countries but more recently has addressed issues related to developing countries and countries in transition. It then discusses the approaches that country desk officers use for operational purposes, and presents estimates of potential output for the major industrial countries.

Steady As She Goes Estimating Potential Output During Financial Booms And Busts

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Author : Mr.Helge Berger
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-11-09

Steady As She Goes Estimating Potential Output During Financial Booms And Busts written by Mr.Helge Berger and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-09 with Business & Economics categories.

Potential output—in the sense of the GDP level or path an economy can sustain over the medium term—is a crucial benchmark for policymakers. However, it is difficult to estimate when financial “booms and busts” are driving the real economy. This paper uses a simple multivariate filtering approach to illustrate the role financial variables play in driving potential or sustainable output. The results suggest that it moves more steadily during financial “boom and bust” periods than implied by conventional HP filter estimates, which tend to more closely follow actual GDP. A two-region, multisector New Keynesian DSGE model with financial frictions sheds light on the economic forces that could be behind the results obtained from the filter. This has important implications for policymakers.

Multivariate Filter Estimation Of Potential Output For The United States

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Author : Ali Alichi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-05-04

Multivariate Filter Estimation Of Potential Output For The United States written by Ali Alichi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-05-04 with Business & Economics categories.

Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on capacity utilization, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Laxton and Tetlow (1992) and modified by Benes and others (2010), Blagrave and others (2015), and Alichi and others (2015). We show that, although still fairly uncertain, the real-time estimates from this approach are more accurate than estimates constructed from naïve univariate statistical filters. The paper presents illustrative estimates for the United States and discusses how the end-of-sample estimates can be improved with additional information.

Multivariate Filter Estimation Of Potential Output For The Euro Area And The United States

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Author : Ali Alichi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-12-01

Multivariate Filter Estimation Of Potential Output For The Euro Area And The United States written by Ali Alichi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.

The estimates of potential output and the output gap presented in this paper are not official IMF estimates. The programs and potential output estimates in this paper can be downloaded from www.douglaslaxton.org.The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. The authors would like to thank the European Department of the IMF for helpful comments. All errors and omissions are our own.