Expert Judgement And Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis
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Expert Judgement And Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis
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Author : L. H. J. Goossens
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2000
Expert Judgement And Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis written by L. H. J. Goossens and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with Emergency management categories.
Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis Main Report
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1997
Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis Main Report written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with Nuclear power plants categories.
Expert Judgement In Risk And Decision Analysis
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Author : Anca M. Hanea
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-02-19
Expert Judgement In Risk And Decision Analysis written by Anca M. Hanea and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-02-19 with Business & Economics categories.
This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
Assessment And Management Of Environmental Risks
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Author : Igor Linkov
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Assessment And Management Of Environmental Risks written by Igor Linkov and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Managing environmental contamination requires decision makers to weigh eXlstmg risks against the potential effects of implementing environmental policies - considering both the benefits and disruptions that may result from different actions. The NATO Advanced Research Workshop in Lisbon was an important step in the development and application of cost efficient methods of risk assessment especiaIly within the constraints of a budget. The goal of the workshop was to evaluate the potential for risk assessment to serve as a unified and unifying technique in addressing a wide range of environmental problems. Papers presented in this book discuss issues ranging from specific and local studies (specific site, ecosystem, pollutant) to global decision and management frameworks (watersheds, regions, integration of multiple poIlutants and stressors); they develop a range of approaches starting from specific methods to widely applied public policies (Figure 1). The papers show that the use of risk assessment can provide the scientific basis for environmentaIly sound and cost-efficient policies, strategies, and solutions to our environmental chaIlenges. The organization of the Proceedings reflects sessions and discussions during the workshop. The papers in the introductory Chapter summarize the positions of Drs. Glenn Suter (EPA) and Jim Wilson (Resources for the Future) regarding whether the use of often-expensive risk assessments in developing countries can be justified, given evolving regulatory institutions and limited resources.
Survey Of Sampling Based Methods For Uncertainty And Sensitivity Analysis
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Author : Jon C. Helton
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Survey Of Sampling Based Methods For Uncertainty And Sensitivity Analysis written by Jon C. Helton and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Hypercube categories.
The Argumentative Turn In Policy Analysis
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Author : Sven Ove Hansson
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-05-26
The Argumentative Turn In Policy Analysis written by Sven Ove Hansson and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-05-26 with Science categories.
This book describes argumentative tools and strategies that can be used to guide policy decisions under conditions of great uncertainty. Contributing authors explore methods from philosophical analysis and in particular argumentation analysis, showing how it can be used to systematize discussions about policy issues involving great uncertainty. The first part of the work explores how to deal in a systematic way with decision-making when there may be plural perspectives on the decision problem, along with unknown consequences of what we do. Readers will see how argumentation tools can be used for prioritizing among uncertain dangers, for determining how decisions should be framed, for choosing a suitable time frame for a decision, and for systematically choosing among different decision options. Case studies are presented in the second part of the book, showing argumentation in practice in the areas of climate geoengineering, water governance, synthetic biology, nuclear waste, and financial markets. In one example, argumentation analysis is applied to proposals to solve the climate problem with various technological manipulations of the natural climate system, such as massive dispersion of reflective aerosols into the stratosphere. Even after a thorough investigation of such a proposal, doubt remains as to whether all the potential risks have been identified. In such discussions, conventional risk analysis does not have much to contribute since it presupposes that the risks have been identified, whereas the argumentative approach to uncertainty management can be used to systematize discussions.
A Literature Review On The Use Of Expert Opinion In Prbabilistric Risk Analysis
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date :
A Literature Review On The Use Of Expert Opinion In Prbabilistric Risk Analysis written by and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with categories.
Extension Of Latin Hypercube Samples With Correlated Variables
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Author : C. J. Sallaberry
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Extension Of Latin Hypercube Samples With Correlated Variables written by C. J. Sallaberry and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Experimental design categories.
A Sampling Based Computational Strategy For The Representation Of Epistemic Uncertainty In Model Predictions With Evidence Theory
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Author : Jon C. Helton
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
A Sampling Based Computational Strategy For The Representation Of Epistemic Uncertainty In Model Predictions With Evidence Theory written by Jon C. Helton and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Dempster-Shafer theory categories.
Computational Methods In Transport Verification And Validation
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Author : Frank Graziani
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2008-08-09
Computational Methods In Transport Verification And Validation written by Frank Graziani and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-08-09 with Science categories.
The focus of this book deals with a cross cutting issue affecting all transport disciplines, whether it be photon, neutron, charged particle or neutrino transport. That is, verification and validation. In this book, we learn what the astrophysicist, atmospheric scientist, mathematician or nuclear engineer do to assess the accuracy of their code. What convergence studies, what error analysis, what problems do each field use to ascertain the accuracy of their transport simulations.