Exploring And Shaping International Futures
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Exploring And Shaping International Futures
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Author : Barry B. Hughes
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2015-12-03
Exploring And Shaping International Futures written by Barry B. Hughes and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-03 with Political Science categories.
"People who run cities like to play Simcity to find out how impossible their jobs are. Hughes gives everyone a chance to play a kind of Simplanet, with outcomes far more complex and uncertain. In the process, the book and the computer program provide a coherent path to understanding an anarchic world." --Ronald A. Francisco, University of Kansas "What will be the future of human demographic, economic, environmental, and political-social systems throughout the 21st century? Where do current changes appear to be taking us? What kind of future would we prefer? How much leverage do we have to bring about the future we prefer? Do YOU share these interests of the book? If yes, you should study the book and learn how to cope with the future with the International Futures approach (IFs) developed by the authors. This large-scale integrated global simulation modeling system is a user-friendly, professional tool for long-term policy analysis and an educational tool in universities. I had a pleasure to learn it personally by cooperating with Barry Hughes." --Pentti Malaska, Professor of MS, DrTech, futurist Honorary member of the Club of Rome What will be the long-term impact of AIDS in Africa or concentration of global oil production in the Middle East? Exploring and Shaping International Futures helps readers understand such global trends in demographic, economic, energy, food, environmental, and socio-political systems. It allows businesspeople, government officials, and others to think concretely about global futures in each of these areas. It is the only book on the market that allows readers to use a computer simulation to track global trends and to develop alternative scenarios around those trends. It is one of relatively few books that really brings computer technology into the classroom, boardroom, or policy planning commission. The International Futures (IFs) computer simulation, around which the book is built, is now widely used in policy analysis as well as education. It has been instrumental in projects undertaken by such groups as the European Commission, the U.S. National Intelligence Council, and the United Nations. After three decades of development and refinement, the computer model is now easy to access and use. Readers can access the website with the IFs computer model at www.ifs.du.edu
International Futures
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Author : Barry B. Hughes
language : en
Publisher: Academic Press
Release Date : 2019-03-20
International Futures written by Barry B. Hughes and has been published by Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-03-20 with Mathematics categories.
International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years. - Helps readers understand the IFs system, not at a detailed equation and technical level, but in terms of the important decisions made that dominate the structure and long-term behavior - Presents information on the universe of long-term global forecasting systems, key decisions made, and the range of similarities and differences in the systems - Covers the relationship between long-term forecasts in a variety of global issues and the forecasting systems and assumptions that underly them (essential information for forecast consumers)
Improving Global Health
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Author : Barry B. Hughes
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2015-11-17
Improving Global Health written by Barry B. Hughes and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-17 with Political Science categories.
Improving Global Health is the third in a series of volumes-Patterns of Potential Human Progress-that uses the International Futures (IFs) simulation model to explore prospects for human development: how development appears to be unfolding globally and locally, how we would like it to evolve, and how better to assure that we move it in desired directions. Earlier volumes addressed the reduction of global poverty and the advance of global education. Volume 3 sets out to tell a story of possible futures for the health of peoples across the world. Questions the volume addresses include: -What health outcomes might we expect given current patterns of human development? -What opportunities exist for intervention and the achievement of alternate health futures? -How might improved health futures affect broader economic, social, and political prospects of countries, regions, and the world?
Africa Toward 2030
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Author : E. Lundsgaarde
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2011-11-11
Africa Toward 2030 written by E. Lundsgaarde and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-11-11 with Political Science categories.
Combining studies of demography, climate change, technology and innovation, political development, new actors in international development, and global governance frameworks, this book highlights the major underlying determinants of change in the African context and key uncertainties about the continent's future development prospects.
Advancing Global Education
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Author : Janet R. Dickson
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2015-12-22
Advancing Global Education written by Janet R. Dickson and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-22 with Political Science categories.
Education is one of the most fundamental prerequisites to economic growth and social stability in the world. It is also one of the most inadequately realised goals of development, with the average education of global adults remaining essentially at primary levels. Advancing Global Education is the second in a series of volumes that explores prospects for human development-how development appears to be unfolding globally and locally, how we would like it to evolve, and how better to assure that we move it in desired directions. The first volume addressed the reduction of global poverty. The third will turn to the enhancement of global health. Advancing Global Education presents the most extensive set of forecasts of global education participation and attainment levels to date-providing and exploring a massive, multi-issue database and proposing a scenario for accelerating educational attainment throughout major world regions and 183 countries.
Reducing Global Poverty
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Author : Barry B. Hughes
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2015-12-22
Reducing Global Poverty written by Barry B. Hughes and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-22 with Political Science categories.
This is the first volume in an ambitious new series-"Patterns of Potential Human Progress"-inspired by the UN Millennium Development Goals (MGDs) and other initiatives to improve the global condition. The first and most fundamental of these goals-reducing poverty worldwide-is the focus of this book. Using the large-scale computer program called International Futures (IFs) developed over three decades at the prestigious University of Denver Graduate School of International Studies, this book explores the most extensive set of forecasts of global poverty ever made-providing a wide range of scenarios based on an authoritative array of data. It transcends the "$1 a day" baseline measure of poverty and probes important concepts like income poverty gaps and relative poverty. The forecasts are long-term, looking 50 years into the future, far beyond the 2015 date set out by the MDGs. They are geographically rich, spanning the entire globe and drilling down to the country level, including one of the most important global focal points, India. The poverty forecasts in this book, and all the volumes in the series, are fully integrated in perspective across a wide range of human development arenas including demographics, economics, politics, agriculture, energy, and the environment. Full of colorful, thoughtfully designed graphs, tables, maps, and other visual presentations of data and forecasts, this large-format inaugural volume ensures that the "Patterns of Potential Human Progress" series will become an indispensable resource for every development professional, student, professor, library, and indeed, country around the world.
Strengthening Governance Globally
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Author : Barry B. Hughes
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2015-11-17
Strengthening Governance Globally written by Barry B. Hughes and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-17 with Political Science categories.
Strengthening Governance Globally is the fifth volume in the series 'Patterns of Potential Human Progress'. Each volume considers one key aspect of how development unfolds globally and how better to move it in desired directions. This volume identifies the provision of security, the building of government capacity, and the broadening of inclusion of governance on which high-income countries have traditionally made long historical transitions. In contrast, many developing countries today struggle with all three governance transition dimensions simultaneously. Strengthening Governance Globally uses the growing empirical database on governance variables to understand historical change.
North And South In The World Political Economy
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Author : Rafael Reuveny
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2009-02-26
North And South In The World Political Economy written by Rafael Reuveny and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-02-26 with Political Science categories.
A broad yet distinctive analysis of the growing political, economic, and social gap existing between the world’s northern and southern hemispheres. Featuring papers selected by the ISA President from the 2006 annual meeting, this upper-level volume examines the genesis of the North-South divide, the ongoing policy problems between developed and lesser developed states, and how these issues influence current and future world politics. An upper-level text ideal for academic libraries, think tanks, and libraries of policy institutions Organized into three distinct focus clusters: Problems afflicting the global South -- trade, development, financial crises, structural adjustment, democratization, human rights, disease; Specific conflicts between North and South -- energy, terrorism, weak states, nuclear weapon proliferation; Solutions to reduce the North-South gap -- foreign aid programs, global media, democratization, political power in the United Nations, the emerging powers phenomenon, transnational social movements, and Northern foreign policy adjustments Tackles the tough questions likely to dominate international relations discourse for decades to come
Modeling The Impacts Of Land Use Change On Ecosystems At The Regional And Continental Scale
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Author : Jennifer Koch
language : en
Publisher: kassel university press GmbH
Release Date : 2010
Modeling The Impacts Of Land Use Change On Ecosystems At The Regional And Continental Scale written by Jennifer Koch and has been published by kassel university press GmbH this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Biotic communities categories.
7.2.1. Input data and model initialization -- 7.2.2. Geographic distribution of vascular plant diversity -- 7.2.3. Estimation of area potentials for agriculture and their spatial correlation to regions with high vascular plant diversity -- 7.2.4. Assessment of land-use and land-cover change impacts -- 7.2.5. Scenario drivers -- 7.3. Results -- 7.3.1. Area potentials for agricultural activities -- 7.3.2. Scenario analysis -- 7.4. Discussion -- 7.5. Conclusions -- 8. Synthesis -- 8.1. Summary of findings -- 8.1.1. Modeling the feedback between stocking density and biomass productivity -- 8.1.2. Quantifying the environmental impact of grazing in Jordan -- 8.1.3. Future land-use and land-cover change scenarios for the Jordan River region -- 8.1.4. Assessment of future conflicts between agricultural land use and biodiversity in Africa -- 8.2. Outlook on further research -- 9. Bibliography -- A. Nonlinear correlation functionsbetween stocking density andbiomass productivity -- B. Input specification -- C. Land-use and land-cover maps for the simulation experimenton future conflicts between agricultural land use and biodiversity in Africa -- Back cover
Globalization As Evolutionary Process
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Author : George Modelski
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2007-12-20
Globalization As Evolutionary Process written by George Modelski and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-12-20 with Political Science categories.
The term globalization has gained widespread popularity; yet most treatments are either descriptive and/or focused on changes in economic interconnectivity. In this volume the concept is seen in broader terms as leading international experts from a range of disciplines develop a long-term analysis to address the problems of globalization. The editors and contributors develop a framework for understanding the origins and trajectory of contemporary world trends, constructing testable and verifiable models of globalization. They demonstrate how the evolutionary approach allows us to view globalization as an enterprise of the human species as a whole focusing on the analytical problem of global change and the rules governing those changes. The emphasis is not on broad-based accounts of the course of world affairs but, selectively, on processes that reshape the social of the human species, the making of world opinion and the innovations that animate these developments. Chapters are clustered into four foci. One emphasizes the interpretation of globalization as an explicitly evolutionary process. A second looks at historical sequences of such phenomena as population growth or imperial rise and decline as processes that can be modeled and not purely described. The third cluster examines ongoing changes in economic processes, especially information technology. A final cluster takes on some of the challenges associated with forecasting and simulating the complexities of globalization processes. This innovative and important volume will be of interest to students and scholars across the social sciences concerned with the phenomenon of globalization.