Financial Cycles
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How Do Business And Financial Cycles Interact
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Author : Mr.Marco Terrones
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-04-01
How Do Business And Financial Cycles Interact written by Mr.Marco Terrones and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-04-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper analyzes the interactions between business and financial cycles using an extensive database of over 200 business and 700 financial cycles in 44 countries for the period 1960:1-2007:4. Our results suggest that there are strong linkages between different phases of business and financial cycles. In particular, recessions associated with financial disruption episodes, notably house price busts, tend to be longer and deeper than other recessions. Conversely, recoveries associated with rapid growth in credit and house prices tend to be stronger. These findings emphasize the importance of developments in credit and housing markets for the real economy.
Financial Cycles
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Author : Mr.Marco Terrones
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-04-01
Financial Cycles written by Mr.Marco Terrones and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-04-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of financial cycles using a large database covering 21 advanced countries over the period 1960:1-2007:4. Specifically, we analyze cycles in credit, house prices, and equity prices. We report three main results. First, financial cycles tend to be long and severe, especially those in housing and equity markets. Second, they are highly synchronized within countries, particularly credit and house price cycles. The extent of synchronization of financial cycles across countries is high as well, mainly for credit and equity cycles, and has been increasing over time. Third financial cycles accentuate each other and become magnified, especially during coincident downturns in credit and housing markets. Moreover, globally synchronized downturns tend to be associated with more prolonged and costly episodes, especially for credit and equity cycles. We discuss how these findings can guide future research on various aspects of financial market developments.
Financial Cycles
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Author : Dimitris N. Chorafas
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-04-30
Financial Cycles written by Dimitris N. Chorafas and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-30 with Business & Economics categories.
As financial positions expand, the economy becomes more vulnerable to adverse and unexpected developments taking place outside the six to seven year business cycle. Over 50 years ago Nikolai Kondratieff developed the theory of "The Long Waves in Economic Life", which incorporated an extended cycle of innovation and upward thrust, and changed our understanding of business cycles in financial settings. Financial Cycles concentrates on two areas that have thus far been omitted from mainstream economics. The first is the impact of the longer term financial cycle; the second is the beginning of de-globalization as the world enters an era of iron-glad economic blocks. Chorafas argues that to overcome the more narrow limits of the business cycle, we need to go beyond its traditional six to seven year focus and address the longer term. This includes the building-up and running-off of economic risks characterizing the financial cycle, as well as the appreciation of forces underwriting both its growth and its decay. An ever-increasing public debt and the behavior of the banking industry are two principal reasons why the structure of analysis characterizing the previous financial cycle no longer fits present-day realities. A new methodology starts getting in shape, even if it still has to acquire political legitimacy.
Financial Cycles And The Real Economy
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Author : Ewald Nowotny
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2014-10-31
Financial Cycles And The Real Economy written by Ewald Nowotny and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-10-31 with Business & Economics categories.
What is the link between the financial cycle - financial booms, followed by busts - and the real economy? What is the direction of this link and how salient is this connection? This unique book examines these fundamental questions and offers a paramoun
Boom And Bust
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Author : Alex J. Pollock
language : en
Publisher: Government Institutes
Release Date : 2010-11-16
Boom And Bust written by Alex J. Pollock and has been published by Government Institutes this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-11-16 with Business & Economics categories.
While the recent economic crisis was a painful period for many Americans, the panic surrounding the downturn was fueled by an incomplete understanding of economic history. Economic hysteria made for riveting journalism and effective political theater, but the politicians and members of the media who declared that America was in the midst of the greatest financial calamity since the Great Depression were as wrong and misguided as the expansionists of the Roosevelt era. In reality the cyclical nature of market economies is as old as the markets themselves. In a free market system, financial downturns inevitably accompany economic prosperity-but the overall trend is upward progress in living standards and national wealth. While it is helpful to understand what caused the recent crisis, the more important questions to consider are 'What makes the 'boom and bust' cycle so predictable?' and 'What are the ethical responsibilities of the citizens of a free market economy?' In Boom and Bust: Financial Cycles and Human Prosperity, Alex J. Pollock argues that while economic downturns can be frightening and difficult, people living in free market economies enjoy greater health, better access to basic necessities, better education, work less arduous jobs, and have more choices and wider horizons than people at any other point in history. This wonderful reality would not exist in the absence of financial cycles. This book explains why.
Financial Cycles Early Warning Indicators Of Banking Crises
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Author : Ms. Sally Chen
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-04-29
Financial Cycles Early Warning Indicators Of Banking Crises written by Ms. Sally Chen and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-04-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Can the upturns and downturns in financial variables serve as early warning indicators of banking crises? Using data from 59 advanced and emerging economies, we show that financial overheating can be detected in real time. Equity prices and output gap are the best leading indicators in advanced markets; in emerging markets, these are equity and property prices and credit gap. Moreover, aggregating this information flags financial crisis many years before the crisis. Lastly, we find that the length of financial cycles is of medium-term frequency, calling into question the longer frequency widely used in the estimation of countercyclical capital buffers.
How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact With Financial Cycles
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Author : Tigran Poghosyan
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-11-25
How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact With Financial Cycles written by Tigran Poghosyan and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-25 with Social Science categories.
We employ a duration model to study determinants of public debt cycles in 57 advanced and emerging economies over the 1960–2014 period, with a particular focus on the impact of financial cycles. The results suggest that the association between financial and debt cycles is asymmetric. Debt expansions preceded by overheating in credit and financial markets tend to last longer than other expansions, but there is no significant association between financial cycles and debt contractions. There is strong evidence of duration dependence in both phases of the cycle, with the likelihood of expansions and contractions to end increasing with the length of their respective spells. Higher initial level of debt increases the spell of contractions (persistence of adjustment effort hypothesis) and reduces the spell of expansions (debt sustainability hypothesis). This result is robust to the inclusion of global factors, openness, political stability, and debt crisis indicators as additional controls.
Uk Business And Financial Cycles Since 1660
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Author : Nicholas Dimsdale
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2019-11-02
Uk Business And Financial Cycles Since 1660 written by Nicholas Dimsdale and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-11-02 with Business & Economics categories.
This book is the first of two volumes that aim to provide an up-to-date overview of the key data and techniques necessary for analysing the historical behaviour of business and financial cycles in the United Kingdom. Drawing on an extensive secondary literature and the considerable body of historical macroeconomic and financial time series data that exist for the United Kingdom, the two volumes will review the key features of historical recessions and recoveries over the course of three and a half centuries. Volume 1 provides an overview of UK business cycles since 1660. The first part of the book considers old and new theories of the business cycle, looking at the impulses that generate business cycles and the propagation mechanisms that determine their duration and amplitude. The second part of the book uses the latest historical estimates of GDP to look at different ways of measuring and estimating business cycle fluctuations within a simple univariate framework. Finally, the book provides a narrative of UK economic fluctuations since 1660 using a whole range of economic data to shed light on the main drivers of cyclical behaviour. It concludes by highlighting areas for future research especially with regard to the link between business and financial cycles, some of which will be explored in Volume 2.
Financial Cycles
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Author : Dimitris N. Chorafas
language : en
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Release Date : 2014-01-14
Financial Cycles written by Dimitris N. Chorafas and has been published by Palgrave Macmillan this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-01-14 with Business & Economics categories.
Chorafas argues that to overcome the more narrow limits of the business cycle, we need to go beyond its traditional six to seven year focus and address the longer term.
Mitigating The Deadly Embrace In Financial Cycles
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Author : Mr.Jaromir Benes
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-04-12
Mitigating The Deadly Embrace In Financial Cycles written by Mr.Jaromir Benes and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-12 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper presents a new version of MAPMOD (Mark II) to study the effectiveness of macroprudential regulations. We extend the original model by explicitly modeling the housing market. We show how household demand for housing, house prices, and bank mortgages are intertwined in what we call a deadly embrace. Without macroprudential policies, this deadly embrace naturally leads to housing boom and bust cycles, which can be very costly for the economy, as shown by the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09.