Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets
DOWNLOAD
Download Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets PDF/ePub or read online books in Mobi eBooks. Click Download or Read Online button to get Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets book now. This website allows unlimited access to, at the time of writing, more than 1.5 million titles, including hundreds of thousands of titles in various foreign languages. If the content not found or just blank you must refresh this page
Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets
DOWNLOAD
Author : Justin Wolfers
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets written by Justin Wolfers and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Economic forecasting categories.
Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management -- in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature, and we argue that resolving these questions is crucial to determining whether current optimism about prediction markets will be realized.
Prediction Markets
DOWNLOAD
Author : Leighton Vaughan Williams
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2011-06-16
Prediction Markets written by Leighton Vaughan Williams and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-06-16 with Business & Economics categories.
How does one effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ‘wisdom of the crowd’? Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies, for example, in providing improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services. The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza to the spread of infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like opinion surveys, group deliberations, panels of experts and focus groups. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes. This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should be of interest to anyone looking at monetary economics, economic forecasting and microeconomics.
Accelerating Democracy
DOWNLOAD
Author : John O. McGinnis
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2013
Accelerating Democracy written by John O. McGinnis and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Computers categories.
How to adapt democracy to the accelerating pace of technological change—and why it's critical that we do Successful democracies throughout history—from ancient Athens to Britain on the cusp of the industrial age—have used the technology of their time to gather information for better governance. Our challenge is no different today, but it is more urgent because the accelerating pace of technological change creates potentially enormous dangers as well as benefits. Accelerating Democracy shows how to adapt democracy to new information technologies that can enhance political decision making and enable us to navigate the social rapids ahead. John O. McGinnis demonstrates how these new technologies combine to address a problem as old as democracy itself--how to help citizens better evaluate the consequences of their political choices. As society became more complex in the nineteenth century, social planning became a top-down enterprise delegated to experts and bureaucrats. Today, technology increasingly permits information to bubble up from below and filter through more dispersed and competitive sources. McGinnis explains how to use fast-evolving information technologies to more effectively analyze past public policy, bring unprecedented intensity of scrutiny to current policy proposals, and more accurately predict the results of future policy. But he argues that we can do so only if government keeps pace with technological change. For instance, it must revive federalism to permit different jurisdictions to test different policies so that their results can be evaluated, and it must legalize information markets to permit people to bet on what the consequences of a policy will be even before that policy is implemented. Accelerating Democracy reveals how we can achieve a democracy that is informed by expertise and social-scientific knowledge while shedding the arrogance and insularity of a technocracy.
Multi Agent Based Simulation Xii
DOWNLOAD
Author : Daniel Villatoro
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2012-02-27
Multi Agent Based Simulation Xii written by Daniel Villatoro and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-02-27 with Computers categories.
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 12th International Workshop on Multi-Agent-Based Simulation, MABS 2011, held in Taipei, Taiwan, in May 2011. The 10 revised selected and extended papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 21 submissions. The topics covered are MABS in scientometrics; MABS in politics, transit and policy; pedestrian, crowds and large scale MABS; and MABS modeling.
The Soulful Science
DOWNLOAD
Author : Diane Coyle
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2010
The Soulful Science written by Diane Coyle and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Business & Economics categories.
"For many, Thomas Carlyle's put-down of economics as "the dismal science" rings true - especially in the aftermath of the crash of 2008. But Diane Coyle argues that economics today is more soulful than dismal, a more practical and human science than ever before. The Soulful Science describes the remarkable creative renaissance in economics, how economic thinking is being applied to the paradoxes of everyday life." "This revised edition incorporates the latest developments in the field, including the rise of behavioral finance, the failure of carbon trading, and the growing trend of government bailouts. She also discusses such major debates as the relationship between economic statistics and presidential elections, the boundary between private choice and public action, and who is to blame for today's banking crisis." --Book Jacket.
A Companion To Applied Philosophy
DOWNLOAD
Author : Kasper Lippert-Rasmussen
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2016-09-19
A Companion To Applied Philosophy written by Kasper Lippert-Rasmussen and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-09-19 with Philosophy categories.
Applied philosophy has been a growing area of research for the last 40 years. Until now, however, almost all of this research has been centered around the field of ethics. A Companion to Applied Philosophy breaks new ground, demonstrating that all areasof philosophy, including epistemology, metaphysics, philosophy of science, and philosophy of mind, can be applied, and are relevant to questions of everyday life. This perennial topic in philosophy provides an overview of these various applied philosophy developments, highlighting similarities and differences between various areas of applied philosophy, and examining the very nature of this topic. It is an area to which many of the towering figures in the history of philosophy have contributed, and this timely Companion demonstrates how various historical contributions are actually contributions within applied philosophy, even if they are not traditionally seen as such. The Companion contains 42 essays covering major areas of philosophy; the articles themselves are all original contributions to the literature and represent the state of the art on this topic, as well as offering a map to the current debates.
Handbook Of Sports And Lottery Markets
DOWNLOAD
Author : Donald B. Hausch
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2011-08-11
Handbook Of Sports And Lottery Markets written by Donald B. Hausch and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-08-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Its basic empirical research and investigation of pure theories of investment in the sports and lottery markets make this volume a winner. These markets are simpler to study than traditional financial markets, and their expected values and outcomes are uncomplicated. By means of new overviews of scholarship on the industry side of racetrack and other betting markets to betting exchanges and market efficiencies, contributors consider a variety of sports in countries around the world. The result is not only superior information about market forecasting, but macro- and micro-analyses that are relevant to other markets. - Easily studied sports markets reveal features relevant for more complex traditional financial markets - Significant coverage of sports from racing to jai alai - New studies of betting exchanges and Internet wagering markets
Blockchain Antitrust
DOWNLOAD
Author : Schrepel, Thibault
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2021-09-21
Blockchain Antitrust written by Schrepel, Thibault and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-09-21 with Law categories.
This innovative and original book explores the relationship between blockchain and antitrust, highlighting the mutual benefits that stem from cooperation between the two and providing a unique perspective on how law and technology could cooperate.
Prediction Markets In Theory And Practice
DOWNLOAD
Author : Justin Wolfers
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Prediction Markets In Theory And Practice written by Justin Wolfers and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Economic forecasting categories.
Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as "information markets," "idea futures" or "event futures", are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes the recent literature on prediction markets, highlighting both theoretical contributions that emphasize the possibility that these markets efficiently aggregate disperse information, and the lessons from empirical applications which show that market-generated forecasts typically outperform most moderately sophisticated benchmarks. Along the way, we highlight areas ripe for future research.
Theories Of Choice
DOWNLOAD
Author : Stefan Grundmann
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2021-01-14
Theories Of Choice written by Stefan Grundmann and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-01-14 with Law categories.
Choice is a key concept of our time. It is a foundational mechanism for every legal order in societies that are, politically, constituted as democracies and, economically, built on the market mechanism. Thus, choice can be understood as an atomic structure that grounds core societal processes. In recent years, however, the debate over the right way to theorize choice - for example, as a rational or a behavioral type of decision making - has intensified. This collection provides an in-depth discussion of the promises and perils of specific types of theories of choice. It shows how the selection of a specific theory of choice can make a difference for concrete legal questions, in particular in the regulation of the digital economy or in choosing between market, firm, or network. In its first part, the volume provides an accessible overview of the current debates about rational versus behavioral approaches to theories of choice. The remainder of the book structures the vast landscape of theories of choice along with three main types: individual, collective, and organizational decision making. As theories of choice proliferate and become ever more sophisticated, however, the process of choosing an adequate theory of choice becomes increasingly intricate. This volume addresses this selection problem for the various legal arenas in which individual, organizational, and collective decisions matter. By drawing on economic, technological, political, and legal points of view, the volume shows which theories of choice are at the disposal of the legally relevant decision-maker, and how they can be operationalized for the solution of concrete legal problems. The editors acknowledge the kind support of the Fritz Thyssen Foundation for an exploratory conference on the subject of the book.