Prediction Markets In Theory And Practice

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Prediction Markets In Theory And Practice

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Author : Justin Wolfers
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006

Prediction Markets In Theory And Practice written by Justin Wolfers and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Economic forecasting categories.

Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as "information markets," "idea futures" or "event futures", are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes the recent literature on prediction markets, highlighting both theoretical contributions that emphasize the possibility that these markets efficiently aggregate disperse information, and the lessons from empirical applications which show that market-generated forecasts typically outperform most moderately sophisticated benchmarks. Along the way, we highlight areas ripe for future research.

Financial Risk Forecasting

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Author : Jon Danielsson
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2011-04-20

Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-04-20 with Business & Economics categories.

Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.

Prediction Markets In Theory And Practice

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Author : Justin Wolfers
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011

Prediction Markets In Theory And Practice written by Justin Wolfers and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with categories.

Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as quot;information markets,quot; quot;idea futuresquot; or quot;event futuresquot;, are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes the recent literature on prediction markets, highlighting both theoretical contributions that emphasize the possibility that these markets efficiently aggregate disperse information, and the lessons from empirical applications which show that market-generated forecasts typically outperform most moderately sophisticated benchmarks. Along the way, we highlight areas ripe for future research.

Prediction Markets

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Author : Leighton Vaughan Williams
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2011-06-16

Prediction Markets written by Leighton Vaughan Williams and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-06-16 with Business & Economics categories.

How does one effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ‘wisdom of the crowd’? Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies, for example, in providing improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services. The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza to the spread of infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like opinion surveys, group deliberations, panels of experts and focus groups. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes. This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should be of interest to anyone looking at monetary economics, economic forecasting and microeconomics.

Reflexivity And Economics

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Author : John Davis
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2018-04-19

Reflexivity And Economics written by John Davis and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-04-19 with Business & Economics categories.

The form of ‘reflexivity’ – defined by the dictionary as that which is ‘directed back upon itself’ – that is most relevant to economic methodology is that where observation of the economy leads to ideas that change behavior, which in turn changes (is directed back upon) the economy itself. As George Soros explains: "if investors believe that markets are efficient then that belief will change the way they invest, and that in turn will change the nature of the markets they are observing ... That is the principle of reflexivity". Although various versions of reflexivity have long been discussed, in recent years George Soros has been particularly effective in bringing ideas about reflexivity to the attention of the economic and financial communities. In a series of writings he has systematically argued that reflexivity is not only an important aspect of economic life, it is an aspect that is neglected in most mainstream theorizing; and in addition, that the neglect of reflexivity has been responsible for the failure of economists to predict, explain, or offer a solution for events such as the recent financial crisis. Soros’ ideas about reflexivity have important methodological significance, and his chapter in this book summarizes and clarifies his arguments. His contribution is joined by those of thirteen scholars from a wide range of relevant fields, who provide a commentary on the idea of reflexivity in economics. This book was originally published as a special issue of The Journal of Economic Methodology.

Forecasting

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Author : Rob J Hyndman
language : en
Publisher: Otexts
Release Date : 2021-05-31

Forecasting written by Rob J Hyndman and has been published by Otexts this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-05-31 with categories.

Forecasting is required in many situations. Deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand. Scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volumes. Stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly. Examples use R with many data sets taken from the authors' own consulting experience. In this third edition, all chapters have been updated to cover the latest research and forecasting methods. One new chapter has been added on time series features. The latest version of the book is freely available online at http: //OTexts.com/fpp3.

Does Money Matter In Predicting Future Events

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Author : Sebastian Diemer
language : en
Publisher: Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag)
Release Date : 2014-02-01

Does Money Matter In Predicting Future Events written by Sebastian Diemer and has been published by Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag) this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-02-01 with Business & Economics categories.

Prediction markets are online trading platforms where contracts on future events are traded with payoffs being exclusively linked to event occurrence. Scientific research has shown that market prices of such contracts imply high forecasting accuracy through effective information aggregation of dispersed knowledge. This phenomenon is related to incentives for truthful aggregation in the form of real-money or play-money rewards. The question whether real- or play-money incentives enhance higher relative forecast accuracy has been addressed by previous works with diverse findings. The current state of empirical research in his field is subject to two inherent deficiencies. First, inter-market studies suffer from market disparities and differences in the definition of underlying events. Comparisons between two different platforms (one for play-money contracts, one for real-money contracts) are potentially biased by different trading behaviour. Second, the majority of studies are based upon identical datasets of market platforms (IOWA stock exchange, Tradesports/Intrade, NewsFutures).

Handbook Of Economic Forecasting

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Author : Graham Elliott
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2013-10-24

Handbook Of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-24 with Business & Economics categories.

The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

Studies In Intelligence

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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005

Studies In Intelligence written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Intelligence service categories.

Internet And Network Economics

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Author : Stefano Leonardi
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2009-12-08

Internet And Network Economics written by Stefano Leonardi and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-12-08 with Computers categories.

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 5th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics, WINE 2009, held in Rome, Italy, in December 2009. The 34 regular and 29 short revised full papers presented together with 3 invited talks were carefully reviewed and selected from 142 submissions. The papers address various topics in theoretical computer science, networking and security, economics, mathematics, sociology, and management sciences devoted to the analysis of problems arising in the internet and the worldwide Web, such as auction algorithms, computational advertising, general and majority equilibrium, coalitions, collective action, economics aspects of security and privacy in distributed and network computing, algorithmic design and game theory, information economics, network games, price dynamics, and social networks.