Forecast Verification
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Forecast Verification
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Author : Ian T. Jolliffe
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2003-08-01
Forecast Verification written by Ian T. Jolliffe and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-08-01 with Science categories.
This handy reference introduces the subject of forecastverification and provides a review of the basic concepts,discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity(predictand), then looks at some of the relationships betweeneconomic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the keyconcepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification thatreceive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most importanttopics in the field that are the subject of current research orthat would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life casestudies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the differenttechniques and an examination of their strengths andweaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leadingforecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and itsinterpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical andmathematical definition of commonly used terms
Forecast Verification
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Author : Ian T. Jolliffe
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2012-01-25
Forecast Verification written by Ian T. Jolliffe and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-01-25 with Science categories.
Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas. Reviews of first edition: "This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004) "...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005) NEW to the second edition: Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts Includes new Appendix on Verification Software Cover image credit: The triangle of barplots shows a novel use of colour for visualizing probability forecasts of ternary categories – see Fig 6b of Jupp et al. 2011, On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (in press).
Completing The Forecast
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2006-11-09
Completing The Forecast written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-11-09 with Science categories.
Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Solar Irradiance And Photovoltaic Power Forecasting
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Author : Dazhi Yang
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2024-02-05
Solar Irradiance And Photovoltaic Power Forecasting written by Dazhi Yang and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-02-05 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Forecasting plays an indispensable role in grid integration of solar energy, which is an important pathway toward the grand goal of achieving planetary carbon neutrality. This rather specialized field of solar forecasting constitutes both irradiance and photovoltaic power forecasting. Its dependence on atmospheric sciences and implications for power system operations and planning make the multi-disciplinary nature of solar forecasting immediately obvious. Advances in solar forecasting represent a quiet revolution, as the landscape of solar forecasting research and practice has dramatically advanced as compared to just a decade ago. Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power Forecasting provides the reader with a holistic view of all major aspects of solar forecasting: the philosophy, statistical preliminaries, data and software, base forecasting methods, post-processing techniques, forecast verification tools, irradiance-to-power conversion sequences, and the hierarchical and firm forecasting framework. The book’s scope and subject matter are designed to help anyone entering the field or wishing to stay current in understanding solar forecasting theory and applications. The text provides concrete and honest advice, methodological details and algorithms, and broader perspectives for solar forecasting. Both authors are internationally recognized experts in the field, with notable accomplishments in both academia and industry. Each author has many years of experience serving as editors of top journals in solar energy meteorology. The authors, as forecasters, are concerned not merely with delivering the technical specifics through this book, but more so with the hopes of steering future solar forecasting research in a direction that can truly expand the boundary of forecasting science.
Sub Seasonal To Seasonal Prediction
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Author : Andrew Robertson
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2018-10-19
Sub Seasonal To Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-10-19 with Science categories.
The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. - Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications - Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field - Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making - Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
Monthly Weather Review
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1979
Monthly Weather Review written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1979 with Electronic journals categories.
Iea Wind Recommended Practice For The Implementation Of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions
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Author : Corinna Möhrlen
language : en
Publisher: Academic Press
Release Date : 2022-11-12
Iea Wind Recommended Practice For The Implementation Of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions written by Corinna Möhrlen and has been published by Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-11-12 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Published as an Open Access book available on Science Direct, IEA Wind Recommended Practices for the Implementation of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions translates decades of academic knowledge and standard requirements into applicable procedures and decision support tools for the energy industry. Designed specifically for practitioners in the energy industry, readers will find the tools to maximize the value of renewable energy forecast information in operational decision-making applications and significantly reduce the costs of integrating large amounts of wind and solar generation assets into grid systems through more efficient management of the renewable generation variability. Authored by a group of international experts as part of the IEA Wind Task 36 (Wind Energy Forecasting), the book addresses the issue that many current operational forecast solutions are not properly optimized for their intended applications. It provides detailed guidelines and recommended practices on forecast solution selection processes, designing and executing forecasting benchmarks and trials, forecast solution evaluation, verification, and validation, and meteorological and power data requirements for real-time forecasting applications. In addition, the guidelines integrate probabilistic forecasting, integrate wind and solar forecasting, offer improved IT data exchange and data format standards, and have a dedicated section to dealing with the requirements for SCADA and meteorological measurements. A unique and comprehensive reference, IEA Wind Recommended Practices for the Implementation of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions is an essential guide for all practitioners involved in wind and solar energy generation forecasting from forecast vendors to end-users of renewable forecasting solutions. - Brings together the decades-long expertise of authors from a range of backgrounds, including universities and government laboratories, commercial forecasters, and operational forecast end-users into a single comprehensive set of practices - Addresses all areas of wind power forecasting, including forecasting methods, measurement selection, setup and data quality control, and the evaluation of forecasting processes related to renewable energy forecasting - Provides purpose-built decision-support tools, process diagrams, and code examples to help readers visualize and navigate the book and support decision-making
Statistical Methods In The Atmospheric Sciences
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Author : Daniel S. Wilks
language : en
Publisher: Academic Press
Release Date : 2011-07-04
Statistical Methods In The Atmospheric Sciences written by Daniel S. Wilks and has been published by Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-07-04 with Science categories.
Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Third Edition, explains the latest statistical methods used to describe, analyze, test, and forecast atmospheric data. This revised and expanded text is intended to help students understand and communicate what their data sets have to say, or to make sense of the scientific literature in meteorology, climatology, and related disciplines. In this new edition, what was a single chapter on multivariate statistics has been expanded to a full six chapters on this important topic. Other chapters have also been revised and cover exploratory data analysis, probability distributions, hypothesis testing, statistical weather forecasting, forecast verification, and time series analysis. There is now an expanded treatment of resampling tests and key analysis techniques, an updated discussion on ensemble forecasting, and a detailed chapter on forecast verification. In addition, the book includes new sections on maximum likelihood and on statistical simulation and contains current references to original research. Students will benefit from pedagogical features including worked examples, end-of-chapter exercises with separate solutions, and numerous illustrations and equations. This book will be of interest to researchers and students in the atmospheric sciences, including meteorology, climatology, and other geophysical disciplines. - Accessible presentation and explanation of techniques for atmospheric data summarization, analysis, testing and forecasting - Many worked examples - End-of-chapter exercises, with answers provided
Precipitation Advances In Measurement Estimation And Prediction
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Author : Silas C. Michaelides
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2008-02-27
Precipitation Advances In Measurement Estimation And Prediction written by Silas C. Michaelides and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-02-27 with Science categories.
Water cycling and the future availability of fresh water resources are immense societal concerns that impact all nations on Earth as it affects virtually every environmental issue. Precipitation is also a fundamental component of the weather/climate system for it regulates the global energy and radiation balance through coupling to clouds, water vapor, global winds and atmospheric transport. Accurate and comprehensive information on precipitation is essential for understanding the global water/energy cycle and for a wide range of research and applications with practical benefits to society. However, rainfall is difficult to measure because precipitation systems tend to be random in character and also evolve and dissipate very rapidly. It is not uncommon to see a wide range of rain amounts over a small area; and in any given area, the amount of rain can vary significantly over a short time span. These factors together make precipitation difficult to quantify, yet measurements at such local scales are needed for many hydrometeorological applications such as flood and landslide forecasting. Historical, multi-decadal measurements of precipitation from surface-based rain gauges are available over continents, but oceans remained largely unobserved prior to the beginning of the satellite era. Early visible and infrared satellites provided information on cloud tops and their horizontal extent; however, wide-band microwave frequencies proved extremely useful for probing into the precipitating liquid and ice layers of clouds.