Forecast Verification
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Forecast Verification
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Author : Ian T. Jolliffe
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2003-08-01
Forecast Verification written by Ian T. Jolliffe and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-08-01 with Science categories.
This handy reference introduces the subject of forecastverification and provides a review of the basic concepts,discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity(predictand), then looks at some of the relationships betweeneconomic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the keyconcepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification thatreceive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most importanttopics in the field that are the subject of current research orthat would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life casestudies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the differenttechniques and an examination of their strengths andweaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leadingforecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and itsinterpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical andmathematical definition of commonly used terms
Short Range Forecast Verification Program
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Author : United States. Army Air Forces. Weather Division
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1943
Short Range Forecast Verification Program written by United States. Army Air Forces. Weather Division and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1943 with Meteorology categories.
Advances In Weather And Climate Forecast Verification
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Author : Eric Gilleland
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2022-02-15
Advances In Weather And Climate Forecast Verification written by Eric Gilleland and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-02-15 with Science categories.
Advances in Weather and Climate Forecast Verification is a resource for researchers and practitioners who are applying traditional and new methods of forecast evaluation. It offers information that will make it possible for researchers and others to apply the newest forecast methods; rather than searching for information in each individual method, providing the information needed to apply all of the techniques in one place. Selection of the appropriate method to apply to a particular problem is facilitated by comparisons of the methods and their results, which will be included in the book. With these skills in hand, readers can make improvements in both their modelling and the evaluation of the results. A single resource on forecast evaluation reviewing both traditional and the newest techniques Summarizes information, including terminology and methodologies, in a clear and accessible way Appropriate for new and experienced practitioners, as well as producers and users of forecasts it allows readers to understand evaluation and interpretation used when choosing a model Demonstrates techniques for forecasting and modeling extreme weather, to produce better quality model outputs when the sample size is not large
Long Term Verification Trends Of Forecasts By The National Weather Service
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Author : Duane S. Cooley
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1972
Long Term Verification Trends Of Forecasts By The National Weather Service written by Duane S. Cooley and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1972 with Weather forecasting categories.
Climate Forecast Verification Via Multinomial Stochasters
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Author : Rudolph W. Preisendorfer
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1977
Climate Forecast Verification Via Multinomial Stochasters written by Rudolph W. Preisendorfer and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1977 with Climatology categories.
The problem of attaching some quantitative measure of skill to forecasts of temperature, precipitation and other physical fields over extensive regions of the atmosphere and hydrosphere is examined. It is suggested that to each forecaster we may assign a competitive stochaster, a device or person that performs the same forecast over the same regions of space and time as the forecaster, but using a specially designed random procedure. This notion is illustrated for the case of a multinomial stochaster, by means of numerical studies of actual temperature and precipitation forecasts over the U.S. mainland for various seasons over the past three years. Specially designed tables and charts show how quantitative judgments of forecaster skills can be made in a variety of ways. (Author).
Operational Weather Forecasting
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Author : Peter Michael Inness
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Operational Weather Forecasting written by Peter Michael Inness and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Science categories.
This book offers a complete primer, covering the end-to-end process of forecast production, and bringing together a description of all the relevant aspects together in a single volume; with plenty of explanation of some of the more complex issues and examples of current, state-of-the-art practices. Operational Weather Forecasting covers the whole process of forecast production, from understanding the nature of the forecasting problem, gathering the observational data with which to initialise and verify forecasts, designing and building a model (or models) to advance those initial conditions forwards in time and then interpreting the model output and putting it into a form which is relevant to customers of weather forecasts. Included is the generation of forecasts on the monthly-to-seasonal timescales, often excluded in text-books despite this type of forecasting having been undertaken for several years. This is a rapidly developing field, with a lot of variations in practices between different forecasting centres. Thus the authors have tried to be as generic as possible when describing aspects of numerical model design and formulation. Despite the reliance on NWP, the human forecaster still has a big part to play in producing weather forecasts and this is described, along with the issue of forecast verification – how forecast centres measure their own performance and improve upon it. Advanced undergraduates and postgraduate students will use this book to understand how the theory comes together in the day-to-day applications of weather forecast production. In addition, professional weather forecasting practitioners, professional users of weather forecasts and trainers will all find this new member of the RMetS Advancing Weather and Climate series a valuable tool. Provides an end-to-end description of the weather forecasting process Clearly structured and pitched at an accessible level, the book discusses the practical choices that operational forecasting centres have to make in terms of what numerical models they use and when they are run. Takes a very practical approach, using real life case-studies to contextualize information Discusses the latest advances in the area, including ensemble methods, monthly to seasonal range prediction and use of ‘nowcasting’ tools such as radar and satellite imagery Full colour throughout Written by a highly respected team of authors with experience in both academia and practice. Part of the RMetS book series ‘Advancing Weather and Climate’
Seasonal Forecast Verification In The Pacific Using A Coupled Model Poama And The Statistical Model Scopic
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Author : Andrew Cottrill
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Seasonal Forecast Verification In The Pacific Using A Coupled Model Poama And The Statistical Model Scopic written by Andrew Cottrill and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Meteorology categories.
Forecast Verification
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Author : Ian T. Jolliffe
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2012-01-25
Forecast Verification written by Ian T. Jolliffe and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-01-25 with Science categories.
Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas. Reviews of first edition: "This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004) "...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005) NEW to the second edition: Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts Includes new Appendix on Verification Software Cover image credit: The triangle of barplots shows a novel use of colour for visualizing probability forecasts of ternary categories – see Fig 6b of Jupp et al. 2011, On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (in press).
Economic Value Of Weather And Climate Forecasts
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Author : Richard W. Katz
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1997
Economic Value Of Weather And Climate Forecasts written by Richard W. Katz and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with Business & Economics categories.
Weather and climate extremes can significantly impact the economics of a region. This book examines how weather and climate forecasts can be used to mitigate the impact of the weather on the economy. Interdisciplinary in scope, it explores the meteorological, economic, psychological, and statistical aspects to weather prediction. The contributors encompass forecasts over a wide range of temporal scales, from weather over the next few hours to the climate months or seasons ahead, and address the impact of these forecasts on human behaviour. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts seeks to determine the economic benefits of existing weather forecasting systems and the incremental benefits of improving these systems, and will be an interesting and essential reference for economists, statisticians, and meteorologists.
Verification Of The Weather Bureau S 30 Day Outlooks
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Author : National Meteorological Center (U.S.). Extended Forecast Section
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1961
Verification Of The Weather Bureau S 30 Day Outlooks written by National Meteorological Center (U.S.). Extended Forecast Section and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1961 with Long-range weather forecasting categories.
Generalized estimates of probable maximum precipitation have been available for the United States east of the 105th meridian for several years. The need for similar data for the planning and design requirements of the Soil Conservation Service in the region west of the 105th meridian led that agency to cooperate with estimates for that area. This report presents generalized estimates of probable maximum precipitation for areas from a point to 400 square miles and for durations up to 24 hours.