Forecasting International Migration In Europe A Bayesian View
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Forecasting International Migration In Europe A Bayesian View
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Author : Jakub Bijak
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2010-10-23
Forecasting International Migration In Europe A Bayesian View written by Jakub Bijak and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-10-23 with Social Science categories.
International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.
Forecasting International Migration In Europe A Bayesian View
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Author : Jakub Bijak
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2010-11-30
Forecasting International Migration In Europe A Bayesian View written by Jakub Bijak and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-11-30 with Social Science categories.
International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.
Research Handbook On International Migration And Digital Technology
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Author : McAuliffe, Marie
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2021-12-07
Research Handbook On International Migration And Digital Technology written by McAuliffe, Marie and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-12-07 with Social Science categories.
This forward-looking Research Handbook showcases cutting-edge research on the relationship between international migration and digital technology. It sheds new light on the interlinkages between digitalisation and migration patterns and processes globally, capturing the latest research technologies and data sources. Featuring international migration in all facets from the migration of tech sector specialists through to refugee displacement, leading contributors offer strategic insights into the future of migration and mobility.
Towards Bayesian Model Based Demography
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Author : Jakub Bijak
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-12-09
Towards Bayesian Model Based Demography written by Jakub Bijak and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-12-09 with Social Science categories.
This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration – one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly.
International Migration And The Future Of Populations And Labour In Europe
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Author : Marek Kupiszewski
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-02-11
International Migration And The Future Of Populations And Labour In Europe written by Marek Kupiszewski and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-02-11 with Social Science categories.
The changes of populations are determined by fertility, mortality and migration. On the national level, international migration is a factor of increasing demographic, economic, social and political importance. This book addresses the debate on the impact of international migration and economic activity on population and labour force resources in future. It presents a study conducted for 27 European countries, looking 50 years ahead (2002-2052). An extended discussion of theories and factors underlying the assumed evolution of the components of change and economic activity is included as well as a detailed analysis of the historical trends. These theoretical and empirical considerations lead to defining scenarios of future mortality, fertility, economic activity and international migration, which have been fed into a projection model, producing various future population dynamics and labour force trajectories. In addition, simulations have been made to estimate the size of replacement migration needed to maintain selected demographic and labour market parameters in the countries of Europe. The results presented in this book allow researchers, governments and policy makers to evaluate to what extent various migration and labour market policies may be instrumental in achieving the desired population and labour size and structures. The secondary purpose of this volume is to reveal the methodology and argumentation lying behind a complex population forecasting and simulation exercise, which is not done frequently, but is critical for the assessment of the forecasts and also valuable from a purely didactic point of view.
Introduction To Migration Studies
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Author : Peter Scholten
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2022-06-03
Introduction To Migration Studies written by Peter Scholten and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-06-03 with Social Science categories.
This open access textbook provides an introduction to theories, concepts and methodological approaches concerning various facets of migration and migration-related diversities. It starts with an introduction to migration studies and continues with an introductory reading of migration drivers, migration infrastructures, migration flows, and several transversal topics such as gender and migration. It also covers politics, policies and governance as well as specific research methods. As an interactive guide, this book develops an innovative format that brings a connection with various online sources. This means that whereas the chapters bring together literature in a coherent way, they are also connected to IMISCOE's online interactive Migration Research Hub for further reading and for more empirical material on migration and diversity. As such, this textbook provides a very useful introductory reading for undergraduate and graduate students as well as for policymakers, policy advisors, and all those interested in studies on migration and migration-related diversities.
International Migration And Challenges In The Beginning Of The Twenty First Century
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Author : Melih Görgün
language : en
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing PLC
Release Date : 2018-10-18
International Migration And Challenges In The Beginning Of The Twenty First Century written by Melih Görgün and has been published by Bloomsbury Publishing PLC this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-10-18 with Political Science categories.
"This book analyzes the latest developments in international migration in the twenty-first century through an interdisciplinary perspective. The book uses sociological, economic, judicial, political, and geopolitical approaches to present the evolution of the contemporary international migration process"--
From Uncertainty To Policy A Guide To Migration Scenarios
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Author : Jakub Bijak
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2024-12-09
From Uncertainty To Policy A Guide To Migration Scenarios written by Jakub Bijak and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-12-09 with Social Science categories.
This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 License. It is free to read, download and share on Elgaronline.com. This unique book provides a practical and interdisciplinary blueprint for determining quantitative scenarios of future international migration. Focusing on complexity and uncertainty as the defining challenges of migration, it explores how scenario building can be used to inform and underpin effective migration policy and practice
Bayesian Demographic Estimation And Forecasting
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Author : John Bryant
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2018-06-27
Bayesian Demographic Estimation And Forecasting written by John Bryant and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-27 with Mathematics categories.
Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting presents three statistical frameworks for modern demographic estimation and forecasting. The frameworks draw on recent advances in statistical methodology to provide new tools for tackling challenges such as disaggregation, measurement error, missing data, and combining multiple data sources. The methods apply to single demographic series, or to entire demographic systems. The methods unify estimation and forecasting, and yield detailed measures of uncertainty. The book assumes minimal knowledge of statistics, and no previous knowledge of demography. The authors have developed a set of R packages implementing the methods. Data and code for all applications in the book are available on www.bdef-book.com. "This book will be welcome for the scientific community of forecasters...as it presents a new approach which has already given important results and which, in my opinion, will increase its importance in the future." ~Daniel Courgeau, Institut national d'études démographiques
Labor Markets Migration And Mobility
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Author : William Cochrane
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-03-02
Labor Markets Migration And Mobility written by William Cochrane and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-02 with Business & Economics categories.
This volume is devoted to three key themes central to studies in regional science: the sub-national labor market, migration, and mobility, and their analysis. The book brings together essays that cover a wide range of topics including the development of uncertainty in national and subnational population projections; the impacts of widening and deepening human capital; the relationship between migration, neighborhood change, and area-based urban policy; the facilitating role played by outmigration and remittances in economic transition; and the contrasting importance of quality of life and quality of business for domestic and international migrants. All of the contributions here are by leading figures in their fields and employ state-of-the art methodologies. Given the variety of topics and themes covered this book, it will appeal to a broad range of readers interested in both regional science and related disciplines such as demography, population economics, and public policy.