Forecasting Mortality In Developed Countries
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Forecasting Mortality In Developed Countries
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Author : E. Tabeau
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2006-04-11
Forecasting Mortality In Developed Countries written by E. Tabeau and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-04-11 with Social Science categories.
Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.
Old And New Perspectives On Mortality Forecasting
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Author : Tommy Bengtsson
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-03-28
Old And New Perspectives On Mortality Forecasting written by Tommy Bengtsson and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-03-28 with Social Science categories.
This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.
Demographic Forecasting
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Author : Federico Girosi
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2018-06-05
Demographic Forecasting written by Federico Girosi and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-05 with Social Science categories.
Demographic Forecasting introduces new statistical tools that can greatly improve forecasts of population death rates. Mortality forecasting is used in a wide variety of academic fields, and for policymaking in global health, social security and retirement planning, and other areas. Federico Girosi and Gary King provide an innovative framework for forecasting age-sex-country-cause-specific variables that makes it possible to incorporate more information than standard approaches. These new methods more generally make it possible to include different explanatory variables in a time-series regression for each cross section while still borrowing strength from one regression to improve the estimation of all. The authors show that many existing Bayesian models with explanatory variables use prior densities that incorrectly formalize prior knowledge, and they show how to avoid these problems. They also explain how to incorporate a great deal of demographic knowledge into models with many fewer adjustable parameters than classic Bayesian approaches, and develop models with Bayesian priors in the presence of partial prior ignorance. By showing how to include more information in statistical models, Demographic Forecasting carries broad statistical implications for social scientists, statisticians, demographers, public-health experts, policymakers, and industry analysts. Introduces methods to improve forecasts of mortality rates and similar variables Provides innovative tools for more effective statistical modeling Makes available free open-source software and replication data Includes full-color graphics, a complete glossary of symbols, a self-contained math refresher, and more
Projecting Mortality For All Countries
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 1989
Projecting Mortality For All Countries written by and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1989 with Mortalidad categories.
New procedures for projecting mortality in each country modestly change previous mortality projections.
Beyond Six Billion
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2000-10-11
Beyond Six Billion written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-10-11 with Social Science categories.
Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
Perspectives On Mortality Forecasting Cohort Factors How Conditions In Early Life Influence Mortality Later In Life
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Author : Tommy Bengtsson
language : en
Publisher: F'Ors'akringskassan Swedish Social Insurance Agency
Release Date : 2003
Perspectives On Mortality Forecasting Cohort Factors How Conditions In Early Life Influence Mortality Later In Life written by Tommy Bengtsson and has been published by F'Ors'akringskassan Swedish Social Insurance Agency this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Mortality categories.
The Epidemiological Transition
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 1993-02-01
The Epidemiological Transition written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993-02-01 with Social Science categories.
This book examines issues concerning how developing countries will have to prepare for demographic and epidemiologic change. Much of the current literature focuses on the prevalence of specific diseases and their economic consequences, but a need exists to consider the consequences of the epidemiological transition: the change in mortality patterns from infectious and parasitic diseases to chronic and degenerative ones. Among the topics covered are the association between the health of children and adults, the strong orientation of many international health organizations toward infant and child health, and how the public and private sectors will need to address and confront the large-scale shifts in disease and demographic characteristics of populations in developing countries.
Frontiers Of Population Forecasting
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Author : Wolfgang Lutz
language : en
Publisher: Population
Release Date : 1999
Frontiers Of Population Forecasting written by Wolfgang Lutz and has been published by Population this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Social Science categories.
Developments In Demographic Forecasting
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Author : Stefano Mazzuco
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-09-28
Developments In Demographic Forecasting written by Stefano Mazzuco and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-28 with Social Science categories.
This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
Ageing In Advanced Industrial States
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Author : Shripad Tuljapurkar
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2010-08-02
Ageing In Advanced Industrial States written by Shripad Tuljapurkar and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-08-02 with Social Science categories.
Population growth slowed across the world in the last decades of the 20th century, changing substantially our view of the future. The 21st century is likely to see the end to world population growth and become the century of population aging, marked by low fertility and ever-increasing life expectancy. These trends have prompted many to predict a gloomy future caused by an unprecedented economic burden of population aging. In response, industrialized nations will need to implement effective social and economic policies and programs. This is the final volume in a series of three. The papers included explore many examples and strengthen the basis for effective economic and social policies by investigating the economic, social, and demographic consequences of the transformations in the structures of population and family. These consequences include changes in economic behavior, both in labor and financial markets, and with regard to saving and consumption, and intergenerational transfers of money and care.