Forecasts
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Forecasting Principles And Practice
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Author : Rob J Hyndman
language : en
Publisher: OTexts
Release Date : 2018-05-08
Forecasting Principles And Practice written by Rob J Hyndman and has been published by OTexts this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Economic Forecasting
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Author : Ken Holden
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1990
Economic Forecasting written by Ken Holden and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with Business & Economics categories.
This work is the only currently available text that provides comprehensive coverage of the methods and applications in the rapidly developing field of forecasting the future state of the economy.
Forecasting
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Author : David Hendry
language : en
Publisher: Yale University Press
Release Date : 2019-06-11
Forecasting written by David Hendry and has been published by Yale University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive—this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve’s record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.
Forecast Verification
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Author : Ian T. Jolliffe
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2003-08-01
Forecast Verification written by Ian T. Jolliffe and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-08-01 with Science categories.
This handy reference introduces the subject of forecastverification and provides a review of the basic concepts,discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity(predictand), then looks at some of the relationships betweeneconomic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the keyconcepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification thatreceive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most importanttopics in the field that are the subject of current research orthat would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life casestudies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the differenttechniques and an examination of their strengths andweaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leadingforecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and itsinterpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical andmathematical definition of commonly used terms
Economic Forecasting And Policy
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Author : N. Carnot
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2011-07-26
Economic Forecasting And Policy written by N. Carnot and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-07-26 with Business & Economics categories.
Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.
Principles Of Forecasting
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Author : J.S. Armstrong
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2001-05-31
Principles Of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001-05-31 with Business & Economics categories.
Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (How much is this company worth?), marketing (Will a new product be successful?), personnel (How can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (What level of inventories should be kept?). The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of `if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles. The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Approaches To Long Range Forecasting
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1970
Approaches To Long Range Forecasting written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1970 with Technological forecasting categories.
Experimental Long Lead Forecast Bulletin
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1994
Experimental Long Lead Forecast Bulletin written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Climatic changes categories.
Drought Early Warning And Forecasting
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Author : Chris Funk
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2020-06-03
Drought Early Warning And Forecasting written by Chris Funk and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-06-03 with Science categories.
Drought risk management involves three pillars: drought early warning, drought vulnerability and risk assessment, and drought preparedness, mitigation, and response. This book collects in one place a description of all the key components of the first pillar, and describes strategies for fitting these pieces together. The best modern drought early warning systems incorporate and integrate a broad array of environmental information sources: weather station observations, satellite imagery, land surface and crop model simulations, and weather and climate model forecasts, and analyze this information in context-relevant ways that take into account exposure and vulnerability. Drought Early Warning and Forecasting: Theory and Practice assembles a comprehensive overview of these components, providing examples drawn from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United States Drought Monitor. This book simultaneously addresses the physical, social, and information management aspects of drought early warning, and informs readers about the tools, techniques, and conceptual models required to effectively identify, predict, and communicate potential drought-related disasters. This book is a key text for postgraduate scientists and graduate and advanced undergraduate students in hydrology, geography, earth sciences, meteorology, climatology, and environmental sciences programs. Professionals dealing with disaster management and drought forecasting will also find this book beneficial to their work. - Describes and discusses the strategies and components used in effective and integrated 21st century drought early warning systems - Provides a one-stop-shop that describes in one book the observations, models, forecasts, indices, social context, and theory used in drought early warning - Identifies the latest tools and approaches used to monitor and forecast drought, sources of predictive skill, and discusses the technical and theoretical details required to use these tools and approaches in a real-world setting
Entropy Application For Forecasting
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Author : Ana Jesus Lopez-Menendez
language : en
Publisher: MDPI
Release Date : 2020-12-29
Entropy Application For Forecasting written by Ana Jesus Lopez-Menendez and has been published by MDPI this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-12-29 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book shows the potential of entropy and information theory in forecasting, including both theoretical developments and empirical applications. The contents cover a great diversity of topics, such as the aggregation and combination of individual forecasts, the comparison of forecasting performance, and the debate concerning the tradeoff between complexity and accuracy. Analyses of forecasting uncertainty, robustness, and inconsistency are also included, as are proposals for new forecasting approaches. The proposed methods encompass a variety of time series techniques (e.g., ARIMA, VAR, state space models) as well as econometric methods and machine learning algorithms. The empirical contents include both simulated experiments and real-world applications focusing on GDP, M4-Competition series, confidence and industrial trend surveys, and stock exchange composite indices, among others. In summary, this collection provides an engaging insight into entropy applications for forecasting, offering an interesting overview of the current situation and suggesting possibilities for further research in this field.