Front Loaded Or Back Loaded Fiscal Adjustments

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Front Loaded Or Back Loaded Fiscal Adjustments

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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2004

Front Loaded Or Back Loaded Fiscal Adjustments written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Debts, Public categories.

Assessing The Impact And Phasing Of Multi Year Fiscal Adjustment

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Author : Ran Bi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-08-23

Assessing The Impact And Phasing Of Multi Year Fiscal Adjustment written by Ran Bi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-08-23 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper provides a general framework to assess the output and debt dynamics of an economy undertaking multi-year fiscal adjustment. The framework allows country-specific assumptions about the magnitude and persistence of fiscal multipliers, hysteresis effects, and endogenous financing costs. In addition to informing macro projections, the framework can also shed light on the appropriate phasing of fiscal consolidation—in particular, on whether it should be front- or back-loaded. The framework is applied to stylized advanced and emerging economy examples. It suggests that for a highly-indebted economy undertaking large multi-year fiscal consolidation, high multipliers do not always argue against frontloaded adjustment. The case for more gradual or back-loaded adjustment is strongest when hysteresis effects are in play, but it needs to be balanced against implications for debt sustainability. Application to actual country examples tends to cast doubt on claims that very large multipliers have been operating post-crisis. It seems that the GDP forecast errors for Greece may have been due more to over-optimism on potential growth estimates than to underestimating fiscal multipliers.

Reassessing The Role And Modalities Of Fiscal Policy In Advanced Economies

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Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-06-21

Reassessing The Role And Modalities Of Fiscal Policy In Advanced Economies written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-21 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper investigates how developments during and after the 2008–09 crisis have changed economists’ and policymakers’ views on: (i) fiscal risks and fiscal sustainability; (ii) the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a countercyclical tool; (iii) the appropriate design of fiscal adjustment programs; and (iv) the role of fiscal institutions.

Growth And Adjustment In Imf Supported Programs

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Author : International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-09-09

Growth And Adjustment In Imf Supported Programs written by International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-09-09 with Business & Economics categories.

This evaluation assesses how well IMF-supported programs helped to sustain economic growth while delivering adjustment needed for external viability over the period 2008–19. The evaluation finds that the Fund’s increasing attention to growth in the programs has delivered some positive results. Specifically, it does not find evidence of a consistent bias towards excessive austerity in IMF-supported programs. Indeed, programs have yielded growth benefits relative to a counterfactual of no Fund engagement and boosted post-program growth performance. Notwithstanding these positive findings, program growth outcomes consistently fell short of program projections. Such shortfalls imply less protection of incomes than intended, fuel adjustment fatigue and public opposition to reforms, and jeopardize progress towards external viability. The evaluation examines how different policy instruments were applied to support better growth outcomes while achieving needed adjustment. Fiscal policies typically incorporated growth-friendly measures but with mixed success. Despite some success in promoting reforms and growth, structural conditionalities were of relatively low depth and their potential growth benefits were not fully realized. Use of the exchange rate as a policy tool to support growth and external adjustment during programs was quite limited. Lastly, market debt operations were useful in some cases to restore debt sustainability and renew market access, yet sometimes were too little and too late to deliver the intended benefits. The evaluation concludes that the IMF should seek to further enhance program countries’ capacity to sustain activity while undertaking needed adjustment during the program and to enhance growth prospects beyond the program. Following this conclusion, the report sets out three recommendations aimed at strengthening attention to growth implications of IMF-supported programs, including the social and distributional consequences.

Calibrating Fiscal Rules

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Author : Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-07-31

Calibrating Fiscal Rules written by Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-07-31 with Business & Economics categories.

This technical note assesses how large shocks from natural disasters are key source of vulnerabilities for public finances. It extends the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department calibration toolkit by developing a methodology to calibrate fiscal rules in the event of natural disaster shocks and the possibility of implementing climate adaptation and mitigation measures. The features incorporated in this technical note would allow the calibration of a prudent medium-term fiscal anchor as well as annual budgetary limits that ensure the sustainability of public finances. The note is accompanied by a set of toolkits that provides instructions on calibrating a medium-term debt anchor and corresponding operational rules in the presence of natural disaster risks, accounting for climate investment and other mitigation mechanisms.

Fiscal Adjustment In Sudan Size Speed And Composition

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Author : Mr.Kenji Moriyama
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-03-01

Fiscal Adjustment In Sudan Size Speed And Composition written by Mr.Kenji Moriyama and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-03-01 with Business & Economics categories.

The paper aims to identify the optimal size, speed and composition of the medium-term fiscal adjustment in the context of Sudan's limited oil reserves. The permanently sustainable non-oil primary balance approach suggests the need for significant fiscal adjustment over the medium term, requiring a widening of the tax base. Cross-country comparisons highlight VAT and personal income tax (as well as tax administration) as key areas for reform. The paper also suggests the need for complementary expenditure-side measures in the areas of petroleum pricing and anchoring fiscal policy in non-oil indicators.

Fiscal Consolidation Taking Stock Of Success Factors Impact And Design

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Author : Vybhavi Balasundharam
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-03-17

Fiscal Consolidation Taking Stock Of Success Factors Impact And Design written by Vybhavi Balasundharam and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-03-17 with Business & Economics categories.

Surges in public debt in many countries since the COVID-19 pandemic have rekindled interest in fiscal consolidations, which often entail difficult policy choices in the face of economic and political constraints. This paper presents findings from a survey of the literature on fiscal consolidations, focusing on the pre-existing conditions, impact and design aspects of past consolidation episodes. These findings provide insight into factors that influence the chance of successful consolidations, their growth and distributional impact, the pace, phasing, duration and policy mix of reforms to mitigate the impact, and the role of fiscal institutions and capacity development in successful consolidations.

A Status Update On Fiscal Exit Strategies

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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-12-01

A Status Update On Fiscal Exit Strategies written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.

With a modest recovery in the global economy underway, and amid rising concerns about the sharp increase in government debt in several countries, debate has increasingly focused on the need to identify and implement fiscal exit strategies. This paper reviews the medium-term plans of 25 countries - the G20 plus six others with large adjustment needs - and finds that most of them have made reasonable progress in defining these strategies. Nevertheless, strategies fall short in some areas, including committing to long-term debt targets, spelling out adjustment measures in detail, and tackling rising health care costs.

Sovereign Debt

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Author : S. Ali Abbas
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2019-10-21

Sovereign Debt written by S. Ali Abbas and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-10-21 with Business & Economics categories.

The last time global sovereign debt reached the level seen today was at the end of the Second World War, and this shaped a generation of economic policymaking. International institutions were transformed, country policies were often draconian and distortive, and many crises ensued. By the early 1970s, when debt fell back to pre-war levels, the world was radically different. It is likely that changes of a similar magnitude -for better and for worse - will play out over coming decades. Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject. Sovereign Debt brings together some of the world's leading researchers and specialists in sovereign debt to cover a range of sub-disciplines within this vast topic. It explores debt management with debt sustainability; debt reduction policies with crisis prevention policies; and the history with the conjuncture. It is a foundation text for all those interested in sovereign debt, with a particular focus real world examples and issues.

How Much Is A Lot Historical Evidence On The Size Of Fiscal Adjustments

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Author : Mr.Julio Escolano
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-09-25

How Much Is A Lot Historical Evidence On The Size Of Fiscal Adjustments written by Mr.Julio Escolano and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-09-25 with Business & Economics categories.

The sizeable fiscal consolidation required to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratios in several countries in the aftermath of the global crisis raises a crucial question on its feasibility. To answer this question, we rely on historical evidence from a sample of 91 adjustment episodes of countries during 1945–2012 that needed and wanted to adjust in order to stabilize debt to GDP. We find that, in at least half the cases, countries improved their cyclically adjusted primary balances by close to 5 percent of GDP. We also observe that, while countries typically make substantial efforts to stabilize debt, once this objective is achieved, they tend to ease their primary balances and do not necessarily get back to their initial lower debt-to-GDP ratio. We find that consolidations tended to be larger when the initial deficit was high and adjustment efforts were sustained over time. Fiscal adjustments also tended to be larger when accompanied by an easing of monetary conditions and, to a lesser extent, by an improvement in credit conditions.