Future Scenarios
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Future Scenarios
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Author : David Holmgren
language : en
Publisher: Chelsea Green Publishing
Release Date : 2012-04-04
Future Scenarios written by David Holmgren and has been published by Chelsea Green Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-04-04 with Political Science categories.
In Future Scenarios, permaculture co-originator and leading sustainability innovator David Holmgren outlines four scenarios that bring to life the likely cultural, political, agricultural, and economic implications of peak oil and climate change, and the generations-long era of “energy descent” that faces us. “Scenario planning,” Holmgren explains, “allows us to use stories about the future as a reference point for imagining how particular strategies and structures might thrive, fail, or be transformed.” Future Scenarios depicts four very different futures. Each is a permutation of mild or destructive climate change, combined with either slow or severe energy declines. Probable futures, explains Holmgren, range from the relatively benign Green Tech scenario to the near catastrophic Lifeboats scenario. As Adam Grubb, founder of the influential Energy Bulletin website, says, “These aren’t two-dimensional nightmarish scenarios designed to scare people into environmental action. They are compellingly fleshed-out visions of quite plausible alternative futures, which delve into energy, politics, agriculture, social, and even spiritual trends. What they do help make clear are the best strategies for preparing for and adapting to these possible futures.” Future Scenarios provides brilliant and balanced consideration of the world’s options and will prove to be one of the most important books of the year.
Learning From The Future
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Author : Liam Fahey
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 1997-11-10
Learning From The Future written by Liam Fahey and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-11-10 with Business & Economics categories.
Unter Szenarioplanung versteht man eine spezielle Methode der Vorhersage zukünftiger politischer, ökonomischer und demographischer Entwicklungen, die das Funktionieren eines Unternehmens beeinflussen können. Diese Technik wird hier von renommierten Vorreitern auf diesem Gebiet ausführlich beleuchtet - so lernt der Manager, verschiedene Implikationen plausibler Ereignisse und Einflüsse systematisch zu durchdenken. (11/97)
The Plausibility Of Future Scenarios
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Author : Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele
language : en
Publisher: transcript Verlag
Release Date : 2020-07-31
The Plausibility Of Future Scenarios written by Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele and has been published by transcript Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-07-31 with Social Science categories.
What does plausibility mean in relation to scenario planning and how do users of scenarios assess it? Despite the concept's ubiquity, its epistemological and empirical foundations remain unexplored in previous research. Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele offers an interdisciplinary perspective: she presents approaches from philosophy of sciences, cognitive psychology, narrative theory and linguistics, and tests key hypotheses in an experimental study. A conceptual map lays out indicators for scenario plausibility and explains how assessments vary across scenario methods. This helps researchers and practitioners to better understand the implications of their methodological choices in scenario development.
Scenario Planning
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Author : Gill Ringland
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2006-03-16
Scenario Planning written by Gill Ringland and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-03-16 with Business & Economics categories.
This text provides a straightforward account of scenario planning making this important area accessible to business decision makers, as well as corporate planners.
Futurevision
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Author : Richard Watson
language : en
Publisher: ReadHowYouWant
Release Date : 2012-12
Futurevision written by Richard Watson and has been published by ReadHowYouWant this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12 with Business & Economics categories.
The future is not what it used to be. In this volatile era, with the world changing rapidly, people are more curious than ever to know what lies ahead. Will relentless consumerism end up destroying our planet? Or can science and technology allow us to innovate our way out of trouble? Perhaps a greater social consciousness and community - based living will take over - or, conversely, the competition for limited resources may result in everyone fighting for themselves. Drawing on these four possible futures, Richard Watson and Oliver Freeman invite us to examine critically the risks and opportunities to come. They discuss the key factors, trends, critical uncertainties, and wildcards that will shape the future, guiding us to a greater awareness of long - term problems and possible solutions - and empowering us not only to adapt to what might happen, but also to shape our future and to generate change. It's impossible to know for certain what the future holds, but we can remove some of its surprises by engaging in a meaningful debate about the choices we face now. This book shows us how.
Network Society And Future Scenarios For A Collaborative Economy
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Author : V. Kostakis
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2014-08-22
Network Society And Future Scenarios For A Collaborative Economy written by V. Kostakis and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-08-22 with Political Science categories.
This book builds on the idea that peer-to-peer infrastructures are gradually becoming the general conditions of work, economy, and society. Using a four-scenario approach, the authors seek to simplify possible outcomes and to explore relevant trajectories of the current techno-economic paradigm within and beyond capitalism.
Pivotal Countries Alternate Futures
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Author : Michael F. Oppenheimer
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2015-12-01
Pivotal Countries Alternate Futures written by Michael F. Oppenheimer and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-01 with Political Science categories.
Michael Oppenheimer's Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures is both a synthesis of our knowledge on scenario planning and a practical guide for policymakers. One of America's leading scenario planners, Oppenheimer has advised the Department of State, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the President's Science Advisor, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Brookings Institution. In this book, he develops a sophisticated and coherent method for foreign policy specialists who necessarily deal with rapidly changing situations involving high levels of uncertainty. As he explains, figuring out possible outcomes and designing and appropriate policy requires an ability to identify the drivers of change, the potential wild card events, and the central policy questions in any given situation. Once policymakers determine these, they must plan a scenario. To do that, planners need to know how to build the best team of experts possible, run a session, and create credible narratives for different scenario alternatives. To illustrate how it all works, Oppenheimer draws from a range of real-life planning scenarios, including China and Syria. To be sure, new crises will arise that supplant these current ones, but his basic method will aid policymakers in almost every future situation. While nothing ever goes completely to plan-least of all international conflict-preparing with multiple scenarios in mind will always be the least worst approach to global and regional crises. Methodologically rigorous and comprehensive, Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures will be essential reading for policymakers and policy students trying to determine the best path forward in any given crisis.
Scenario Based Strategy
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Author : Paul de Ruijter
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2016-04-01
Scenario Based Strategy written by Paul de Ruijter and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-01 with Business & Economics categories.
We need strategy. The world is changing, the future uncertain. What is required is vision: What might the future bring? Where is our business going? What are our fundamental business values? This book is a manual for all those who want to apply strategy in organisations. It is intended for everyone who wants to put the future on the agenda, to look beyond the short term and beyond mere profit. It describes in practical terms the eight questions we must continually discuss in order to pursue a future-proof strategy in a dynamic and uncertain world: mission, trends, scenarios, options, vision, roadmap, action and monitoring. If you are dissatisfied with an approach to strategy based on simple backward looking analysis, management controls and problems solving after the fact, but would like to make a positive contribution to thinking about the future, Scenario-based Strategy offers the instruments to turn your intention into practice. The text provides examples from commercial to government and trade organizations; showing how others have undertaken future explorations and how they used these explorations to create a dynamic strategy. Paul de Ruijter has a deep insight into the theory, alongside practical experience working with some of the most highly regarded and resilient organizations. The result is a rich combination of methodology and practical, engaging examples that shows you how to go about creating an agenda for the future.
The Future Of Logistics
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Author : Heiko A. von der Gracht
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2008-07-22
The Future Of Logistics written by Heiko A. von der Gracht and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-07-22 with Business & Economics categories.
Based on 51 interviews with logistics CEOs, strategists, and scenario experts, Heiko A. von der Gracht shows that the logistics service industry draws a backward picture of scenario planning practices as compared to other industries.
Scenario Planning
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Author : Woody Wade
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2012-03-27
Scenario Planning written by Woody Wade and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-03-27 with Business & Economics categories.
Is your business ready for the future? Scenario planning is a fascinating, yet still underutilized, business tool that can be of immense value to a company's strategic planning process. It allows companies to visualize the impact that a portfolio of possible futures could have on their competitiveness. It helps decision-makers see opportunities and threats that could emerge beyond their normal planning horizon. Scenario Planning serves as a guide to taking a long-term look at your business, your industry, and the world, posing thoughtful questions about the possible consequences of some current (and possible future) trends. This book will help you: Outline (and help you prepare for) any trends that could play out in the future that could change the political, social, and economic landscapes and significantly impact your business Explore the impact of technological advances and the emergence of new competitors to your business Examine challenges that are only dimly recognizable as potential problems today This visual book will help you answer this question: Is my organization ready for every possibility?