Future Studies And Counterfactual Analysis
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Future Studies And Counterfactual Analysis
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Author : Theodore J. Gordon
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-06-14
Future Studies And Counterfactual Analysis written by Theodore J. Gordon and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-14 with Social Science categories.
In this volume, the authors contribute to futures research by placing the counterfactual question in the future tense. They explore the possible outcomes of future, and consider how future decisions are turning points that may produce different global outcomes. This book focuses on a dozen or so intractable issues that span politics, religion, and technology, each addressed in individual chapters. Until now, most scenarios written by futurists have been built on cause and effect narratives or depended on numerical models derived from historical relationships. In contrast, many of the scenarios written for this book are point descriptions of future discontinuities, a form allows more thought-provoking presentations. Ultimately, this book demonstrates that counterfactual thinking and point scenarios of discontinuities are new, groundbreaking tools for futurists.
Foundations Of Futures Studies Volume 1
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Author : Wendell Bell
language : en
Publisher: Transaction Publishers
Release Date :
Foundations Of Futures Studies Volume 1 written by Wendell Bell and has been published by Transaction Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with Social Science categories.
Futures studies is a new field of inquiry involving systematic and explicit thinking about alternative futures. It aims to demystify the future, make possibilities for the future more known to us, and increase human control over the future. Author Wendell Bell brings together futurist intellectual tools, describing and explaining not only the methods, but also the nature, concepts, theories, and exemplars of the field. Now available in paperback with a new preface from the author, Foundations of Future Studies is the fundamental work on the subject. Bell illustrates how this sphere of intellectual activity offers hope for the future of humanity and concrete ways of realizing that hope in the real world of everyday life. His book will appeal to all interested in futures studies, sociology, economics, political science, and history.
Counterfactual Thought Experiments In World Politics
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Author : Philip E. Tetlock
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2020-06-30
Counterfactual Thought Experiments In World Politics written by Philip E. Tetlock and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-06-30 with Political Science categories.
Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.
Reimagining Capitalism Applying Negative Dialectics For A Better Future
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Author : David Atkinson
language : en
Publisher: Vernon Press
Release Date : 2023-05-09
Reimagining Capitalism Applying Negative Dialectics For A Better Future written by David Atkinson and has been published by Vernon Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-05-09 with Business & Economics categories.
The Covid-19 pandemic reinforced the perception that capitalism is in crisis, that the future is volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous, and that, increasingly, our thinking about it and ability to manage and organize ourselves within it, are challenges we are ill-equipped for. Despite the efforts of many writers, and a surfeit of manuscripts concerning the need to rethink capitalism, questions concerning the struggle for social and economic justice remain unanswered. While some suggest that with corrective action, businesses can save the world, there is an acceptance that they cannot do so alone. However, while governments might strengthen their institutions, enacting more effective policies, the challenge is simply laid bare at the feet of industry and commerce. Is the challenge to confront the establishment just too big to face? Government institutions and the barons of industry and commerce are but interrelated, interconnected, interplaying components in one socio-economic system. This book offers readers a progressive, radical and academic provocation of that system; it also proposes a field of Applied Negative Dialectics. In 'Reimagining Capitalism', Atkinson confronts the need to rethink capitalism and presents an integrated range of thinking through a lens of applied negative dialectics, questioning how and why things might have occurred, and where and how we might begin to improve them.
Rational Techniques In Policy Analysis
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Author : Michael Carley
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2013-10-22
Rational Techniques In Policy Analysis written by Michael Carley and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-22 with Social Science categories.
Rational Techniques in Policy Analysis covers the role of rational techniques in policy making process. This book is organized into two parts encompassing 12 chapters that consider the relationship of policy making and other approaches to rational analysis. Part I deals with the "disintegration" of rational policy analysis to find out what the pieces are, how they work, how the parts interact and how they relate to the wider policy making environment. Part II considers the types of rational analysis in more detail, and serves not only as a survey of rational techniques but as an introduction to the important literature in each field. This part specifically looks into the cost-utility techniques, social forecasting, and evaluation and social indicator research. This book is intended primarily for analysts, researchers, and students of the policy making process in university and government.
Making Sense Of The Future
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Author : Rick Szostak
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2021-09-02
Making Sense Of The Future written by Rick Szostak and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-09-02 with Social Science categories.
Making Sense of the Future integrates the latest thinking in Future Studies with the author’s expertise in world history, economics, interdisciplinary studies, knowledge organization, and political activism. The book takes a systems approach that recognizes the complexity of our world. It begins by suggesting a set of goals for human societies and identifying innovative strategies for achieving these goals that could gain broad support. Each chapter begins with a “How to” section that discusses how we can identify goals, strategies, trends, surprises, or implementation strategies and concludes with an integrative analysis that draws connections across the preceding discussions. Taking a cross-disciplinary approach, Szostak explores key trends and how these interact so that he can develop strategies to guide trends towards desirable futures. He discusses the ways in which we can best prepare for surprises such as epidemics and natural disasters, enabling us to react to them in beneficial ways. Supported by a list of guiding questions and suggestions for class projects, this is an accessible textbook for students of Future Studies and Future Studies courses. The Open Access version of this book, available at www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution- Non Commercial- No Derivatives 4.0 license.
Foundations Of Futures Studies
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Author : Jose Valciukas
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2017-07-05
Foundations Of Futures Studies written by Jose Valciukas and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-07-05 with Social Science categories.
Futures studies is a new field of inquiry involving systematic and explicit thinking about alternative futures. It aims to demystify the future, make possibilities for the future more known to us, and increase human control over the future. This book summarizes and expands contributions of futurists to the envisioning power and well-being of humanity. Bell brings together futurist intellectual tools, describing and explaining not only the methods, but also the nature, concepts, theories, and exemplars of the field.Foundations of Futures Studies fulfills Bell's five main purposes for writing this two-volume effort: (1) to show that futures studies, like other fields from anthropology to zoology, exists as an identifiable sphere of intellectual activity; (2) to create a teaching instrument that can be used as a basic text for core courses in futures studies; (3) to futurize the thinking of specialists in other disciplines; (4) to contribute to the further development and improvement of futures studies; and (5) to provide tools to empower both ordinary people and leaders to act in ways that create better futures for themselves and their societies. Bell maintains that despite its sometimes doomsday rhetorical style and widespread use by special interests, futures studies offers hope for the future of humanity and concrete ways of realizing that hope in the real world of our everyday lives. It will appeal to all interested in futures studies, as well as sociologists, economists, political scientists, and historians.
What Might Have Been
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Author : Neal J. Roese
language : en
Publisher: Psychology Press
Release Date : 2014-01-14
What Might Have Been written by Neal J. Roese and has been published by Psychology Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-01-14 with Psychology categories.
Within a few short years, research on counterfactual thinking has mushroomed, establishing itself as one of the signature domains within social psychology. Counterfactuals are thoughts of what might have been, of possible past outcomes that could have taken place. Counterfactuals and their implications for perceptions of time and causality have long fascinated philosophers, but only recently have social psychologists made them the focus of empirical inquiry. Following the publication of Kahneman and Tversky's seminal 1982 paper, a burgeoning literature has implicated counterfactual thinking in such diverse judgments as causation, blame, prediction, and suspicion; in such emotional experiences as regret, elation, disappointment and sympathy; and also in achievement, coping, and intergroup bias. But how do such thoughts come about? What are the mechanisms underlying their operation? How do their consequences benefit, or harm, the individual? When is their generation spontaneous and when is it strategic? This volume explores these and other numerous issues by assembling contributions from the most active researchers in this rapidly expanding subfield of social psychology. Each chapter provides an in-depth exploration of a particular conceptual facet of counterfactual thinking, reviewing previous work, describing ongoing, cutting-edge research, and offering novel theoretical analysis and synthesis. As the first edited volume to bring together the many threads of research and theory on counterfactual thinking, this book promises to be a source of insight and inspiration for years to come.
Handbook Of Research On Strategy And Foresight
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Author : Laura Anna Costanzo
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2009-03-31
Handbook Of Research On Strategy And Foresight written by Laura Anna Costanzo and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-03-31 with Business & Economics categories.
This important Handbook explores and evaluates dynamic environments and the appropriate strategic responses to them in the 21st century. Drawing together a collection of 29 original chapters, the Handbook makes an invaluable contribution to theory and practice by stimulating disciplined, rigorous and imaginative enquiry into the relationship between strategy and foresight. Leading scholars in the field of strategic management are brought together to offer innovative and multi-disciplinary perspectives on the past, present and future of strategy formation and foresight. In so doing, they challenge research in four key areas: strategy and foresight processes; strategy innovation for the future; understanding the future; and strategically responding to the future. The Handbook of Research on Strategy and Foresight is a comprehensive resource that will be invaluable for academics, students and practitioners interested in this important phenomenon.
The Future Of The World
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Author : Jenny Andersson
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2018-07-26
The Future Of The World written by Jenny Andersson and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-07-26 with History categories.
The Future of the World is devoted to the intriguing field of study which emerged after World War Two, futurism or futurology. Jenny Andersson explains how futurist scholars and researchers imagined the Cold War and post Cold War world and the tools and methods they would use to influence and change that world. Futurists were a motley crew of Cold War warriors, nuclear scientists, journalists, and peace activists. Some argued it should be a closed sphere of science defined by delimited probabilities. They were challenged by alternative notions of the future as a potentially open realm. Futurism also drew on an eclectic range of repertoires, some of which were deduced from positivist social science, mathematics, and nuclear physics, and some of which sprung from alternative forms of knowledge in science fiction, journalism, or religion. These different forms of prediction laid very different claims to how accurately futures could be known, and what kind of control could be exerted over what was yet to come. The Future of the World carefully examines these different engagements with the future, and inscribes them in the intellectual history of the post war period. Using unexplored archival collections, The Future of the World reconstructs the Cold War networks of futurologists and futurists.