Global Inflation Dynamics
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Global Inflation Dynamics
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Author : Craig S. Hakkio
language : en
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Release Date : 2010-11
Global Inflation Dynamics written by Craig S. Hakkio and has been published by DIANE Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Examines the dynamics of various measures of national, regional, and global inflation. The author calculates the first two common factors for four measures of industrial country inflation rates: total CPI, core CPI, cyclical total CPI, and cyclical core CPI. He then demonstrates that the first common factor is sometimes helpful in forecasting national inflation rates. It also shows that the second common factor and the first common factor for cyclical inflation is sometimes helpful in forecasting national CPI inflation rates. Finally, Hakkio suggests that the commonality of industrial inflation rates reflects the commonality of the determinants of inflation. Charts and tables.
China S Role In Global Inflation Dynamics
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Author : Sandra Eickmeier
language : de
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
China S Role In Global Inflation Dynamics written by Sandra Eickmeier and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
Global Value Chain And Inflation Dynamics
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Author : Vu Chau
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-03-22
Global Value Chain And Inflation Dynamics written by Vu Chau and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-22 with Business & Economics categories.
We study the inflationary impacts of pandemic lockdown shocks and fiscal and monetary stimulus during 2020-2022 using a novel harmonized dataset of sectoral producer price inflation and input-output linkages for more than 1000 sectors in 53 countries. The inflationary impact of shocks is identified via a Bartik shift-share design, where shares reflect the heterogeneous sectoral exposure to shocks and are derived from a macroeconomic model of international production network. We find that pandemic lockdowns, and subsequent reopening policies, were the most dominant driver of global inflation in this period, especially through their impact on aggregate demand. We provide a decomposition of lockdown shock by sources, and find that between 20-30 percent of the demand effect of lockdown/reopening is due to spillover from abroad. Finally, while fiscal and monetary policies played an important role in preventing deflation in 2020, their effects diminished in the recovery years.
China S Role In Global Inflation Dynamics
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Author : Sandra Eickmeier
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
China S Role In Global Inflation Dynamics written by Sandra Eickmeier and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
Global Inflation Dynamics
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Author : Craig S. Hakkio
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Global Inflation Dynamics written by Craig S. Hakkio and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
This paper examines the dynamics of various measures of national, regional, and global inflation. The paper calculates the first two common factors for four measures of industrial country inflation rates: total CPI, core CPI, cyclical total CPI, and cyclical core CPI. The paper then demonstrates that the first common factor is sometimes helpful in forecasting national inflation rates. It also shows that the second common factor and the first common factor for cyclical inflation is sometimes helpful in forecasting national CPI inflation rates. Finally, the paper suggests that the commonality of industrial inflation rates reflects the commonality of the determinants of inflation.
Understanding Inflation Dynamics The Role Of Global Shocks In Cemac
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Author : Johanna Tiedemann
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-03-08
Understanding Inflation Dynamics The Role Of Global Shocks In Cemac written by Johanna Tiedemann and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-08 with Business & Economics categories.
As in the rest of the world, inflation in CEMAC surged more quickly and persistently than expected during the 2021–23 period. This paper examines the drivers of inflation dynamics and the contribution of global shocks to inflation persistence in CEMAC. We use a Phillips curve framework combined with the local projections method. Our results confirm the prominent role of global factors in driving inflation dynamics. Global commodity food and oil price fluctuations, and shipping costs are the main factors explaining the large variability in headline inflation. Further, we find that global price shocks have sizable and persistent effects on domestic headline inflation, with differences in the magnitude and speed of pass-through. The pass-through from commodity food price fluctuations to headline inflation is higher and more persistent than that of other global price shocks, reflecting the large share of food in the consumption baskets, which makes inflation more vulnerable to direct effects of international food shocks, but also larger second-round effects.
Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics Why So Low For So Long
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Author : Mr.Yasser Abdih
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-08-22
Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics Why So Low For So Long written by Mr.Yasser Abdih and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-08-22 with Business & Economics categories.
Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low in the euro area. Based on an augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that this phenomenon—sometimes attributed to low global inflation—has been primarily caused by a remarkable persistence of inflation, keeping it low despite the reduction in slack. This feature is shown to be specific to the euro area (in comparison with the United States). Monetary policy needs to stay accommodative to help guide inflation back to target.
Oil Prices And Inflation Dynamics Evidence From Advanced And Developing Economies
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Author : Sangyup Choi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-09-05
Oil Prices And Inflation Dynamics Evidence From Advanced And Developing Economies written by Sangyup Choi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-09-05 with Business & Economics categories.
We study the impact of fluctuations in global oil prices on domestic inflation using an unbalanced panel of 72 advanced and developing economies over the period from 1970 to 2015. We find that a 10 percent increase in global oil inflation increases, on average, domestic inflation by about 0.4 percentage point on impact, with the effect vanishing after two years and being similar between advanced and developing economies. We also find that the effect is asymmetric, with positive oil price shocks having a larger effect than negative ones. The impact of oil price shocks, however, has declined over time due in large part to a better conduct of monetary policy. We further examine the transmission channels of oil price shocks on domestic inflation during the recent decades, by making use of a monthly dataset from 2000 to 2015. The results suggest that the share of transport in the CPI basket and energy subsidies are the most robust factors in explaining cross-country variations in the effects of oil price shocks during the this period.
Inflation Dynamics In Asia
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Author : Ms.Carolina Osorio
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-11-01
Inflation Dynamics In Asia written by Ms.Carolina Osorio and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-11-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The perception that Asia's inflation dynamics is driven by idiosyncratic supply shocks implies, as a corollary, that there is little scope for a policy reaction to a build-up of inflationary pressures. However, Asia's fast growth and integration over the last two decades suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed, and that domestic demand pressures may now play a larger role than in the past. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of inflation dynamics in Asia using a Global VAR (GVAR) model, which explicitly incorporates the role of regional and global spillovers in driving Asia's inflation. Our results suggest that over the past two decades the main drivers of inflation in Asia have been monetary and supply shocks, but also that, in recent years, the contribution of these shocks has fallen, whereas demand-side pressures have started to emerge as an important contributor to inflation in Asia.
Monetary Policy And Inflation Dynamics In Asean Economies
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Author : Geraldine Dany-Knedlik
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-06-22
Monetary Policy And Inflation Dynamics In Asean Economies written by Geraldine Dany-Knedlik and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-22 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.