Government Budget Forecasting
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Government Budget Forecasting
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Author : Jinping Sun
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2017-09-25
Government Budget Forecasting written by Jinping Sun and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-09-25 with Political Science categories.
Revenue and expenditure forecasting plays an important role in public budgeting and financial management, particularly during times of financial constraint, when citizens impose greater accountability upon government to use taxpayer dollars more efficiently. Despite its significance, revenue and expenditure forecasting is often overlooked in the budget process, and there is an imbalance between practice and research in this area. Based on the collaboration of budget scholars and practitioners, Government Budget Forecasting fulfills two purposes: Enhances the understanding of revenue and expenditure estimation both theoretically and practically Stimulates dialogue and debate among practitioners and academicians to identify good forecast practices as well as areas for improvement Divided into four parts, this comprehensive reference first examines forecast practices at the federal, state, and local levels, drawing on case studies that include California, Texas, and Louisiana. It then explores consensus systems and risk assessment, considering political factors and the costs of forecast errors. The text concludes with a call to transparency and guidance from a code of ethics, and a look at forecasting practices in emerging countries.
The Palgrave Handbook Of Government Budget Forecasting
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Author : Daniel Williams
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2019-10-14
The Palgrave Handbook Of Government Budget Forecasting written by Daniel Williams and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-10-14 with Business & Economics categories.
This Handbook is a comprehensive anthology of up-to-date chapters contributed by current researchers in budget forecasting. Editors Daniel Williams and Thad Calabrese had previously found substantial deficiencies in public budgeting forecast literature with current research failing to address such matters as practices related to forecasting expenditure factors, the consequences of forecast bias, or empirical examination of the effectiveness of many deterministic methods actually used by many governments. This volume comprehensively addresses the state of knowledge about budget forecasting for practitioners, academics, and students and serves as a comprehensive resource for instruction alongside serving as a reference book for those engaged in budget forecasting practice.
Forecasting Government Budgets
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Author : Aman Khan
language : en
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
Release Date : 2022-12-15
Forecasting Government Budgets written by Aman Khan and has been published by Rowman & Littlefield this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-12-15 with Political Science categories.
Forecasting is integral to all governmental activities, especially budgetary activities. Without good and accurate forecasts, a government will not only find it difficult to carry out its everyday operations but will also find it difficult to cope with the increasingly complex environment in which it has to operate. This book presents, in a simple and easy to understand manner, some of the commonly used methods in budget forecasting, simple as well as advanced. The book is divided into three parts: It begins with an overview of forecasting background, forecasting process, and forecasting methods, followed by a detailed discussion of the actual methods in Parts I, II, and III. Part I discusses a combination of basic time series models such as percentage average, simple moving average, double moving average, exponential moving average, double as well as triple, simple trend line, time-series with cyclical variation, and time-series regression, with single and multiple independent variables. Part II discusses some of the more advanced, but frequently used time series models, such as ARIMA, regular as well as seasonal, Vector Autoregression (VAR), and Vector Error Correction (VEC). Part III provides an overview of three of the more recent advances in time series models, namely ensemble forecasting, state-space forecasting, and neural network. The book concludes with a brief discussion of some practical issues in budget forecasting.
Forecasting Local Government Spending
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Author : Claudia Devita Scott
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1972
Forecasting Local Government Spending written by Claudia Devita Scott and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1972 with Political Science categories.
Modern Budget Forecasting In The American States
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Author : Michael J. Brogan
language : en
Publisher: Lexington Books
Release Date : 2013-12-05
Modern Budget Forecasting In The American States written by Michael J. Brogan and has been published by Lexington Books this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-05 with Political Science categories.
This book, by Michael J. Brogan, examines government budgeting through the lens of public budget forecast errors. In examining this aspect of the budgetary process, Brogan helps readers understand levels of political and financial risk that policymakers are willing to accept in estimating the likelihood of accurate budget projections. This title is noteworthy in its innovative, accessible approach to examining the budget process through an analysis of forecast errors. Unlike most public budgeting books, which focus primarily on the technical aspects of budgeting or on the politics of the budget process, this book bridges the technical and political aspects of budgeting, thereby providing a more comprehensive analysis of contemporary issues and research in public budgetary matters. In light of the current financial crisis in the United States, this book is crucial for providing readers with a comprehensive review of the limits of budget projections and how political forces shape the forecasting process. Throughout the text, readers are presented with relevant state-specific mini cases. The mini cases highlight some of the difficulties in projecting future revenue and spending patterns, as well as the political conflict that can ensue. The empirical findings, mini cases, and arguments presented throughout this book are intended to empower readers, giving them the expertise needed to better understand how uncertainty in public budget forecasts affects the budget process. Ultimately, this knowledge can help citizens connect the financial management of a state with its governing patterns.
Forecasting In Government To Achieve Value For Money
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Author : Great Britain: National Audit Office
language : en
Publisher: Stationery Office
Release Date : 2014-01-31
Forecasting In Government To Achieve Value For Money written by Great Britain: National Audit Office and has been published by Stationery Office this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-01-31 with Political Science categories.
High-quality forecasting is an essential part of achieving value for money for the taxpayer. Since 2010, more than 70 of the NAO's reports have identified forecasting weaknesses. For example, the Department for Education initially underestimated the scale of demand for its academies programme and did not develop robust cost estimates. To remain within spending limits without restricting the pace or scale of the expansion, it used additional contingency funding of £105m and reassigned £244m from other budgets. 'Optimism bias' and poor quality data are among the root causes of departments' poor production and use of forecasts. Analysts have expressed concern that they are under pressure to provide supportive rather than realistic forecasts; and over half the analysts surveyed by the NAO identified a lack of good-quality data as preventing good forecasting. While the Treasury has introduced incentives to improve forecasting, these are at risk of being overwhelmed by the need to meet Parliament's requirements not to breach end of year spending totals. Most Finance Directors responding to the NAO survey considered that the spending control framework incentivised them to over-budget and underspend. In 2012-13, underspending increased to £11.5 billion, nearly three times the recent average. The Treasury encouraged underspends for Budget 2013; however, the NAO is concerned that the Treasury's flexing of the budget exchange rules (allowing departments to carry forward a forecast underspend from one year to the next) was not clearly related to the quality of individual departments' financial management
Budgetary Forecasting In Local Government
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Author : Howard A. Frank
language : en
Publisher: Praeger
Release Date : 1993-11-23
Budgetary Forecasting In Local Government written by Howard A. Frank and has been published by Praeger this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993-11-23 with Business & Economics categories.
Local governments are hard-pressed to balance their budgets in the 1990s. Part of any budget-balancing effort is accurate forecasting. In this new work, Howard Frank introduces time-tested forecasting techniques from the private sector and military in a local forecasting environment. In a lucid, user-friendly treatment, Frank shows how simple and complex methods can be put to use in the contemporary local government setting. Through examples--many of them from his own research--the author delineates the strengths and weaknesses of quantitative and non-quantitative forecasting methods. Frank also shows how these techniques can be used to monitor changes in public programs--an increasingly important part of contemporary budget execution. Frank does not assume an extensive mathematical or statistical background on the part of the reader--indeed, a forecast neophyte will have no difficulty understanding the text. Questions at the end of each chapter focus the reader on the major concepts and provide insights on practical applications within the urban setting. A cornerstone of the work is that local forecasters must be intelligent experimenters with the new tools--there is no canned advice that applies to all cities and forecast situations. But with application of forecasting approaches treated in this unique work, local budgeters--and those in training to become budgeters--will be able to adopt forecasting approaches that have been underutilized in local government.
Fundamentals Of Public Budgeting And Finance
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Author : Aman Khan
language : en
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Release Date : 2024-07-27
Fundamentals Of Public Budgeting And Finance written by Aman Khan and has been published by Palgrave Macmillan this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-07-27 with Political Science categories.
Budgeting is arguably the single most important function in government. Every year governments spend considerable sums on expenditure programs and activities, as well as time preparing and executing the budget. It is therefore crucial that anyone interested in a career in public administration has a fundamental grasp of these basics. This second edition textbook integrates theory and practice of public budgeting into a single volume. The first part introduces the background to budgeting, focusing especially on taxation, government expenditure and revenue. The second part focuses on budgeting basics, in particular operating and capital budget. The final part deals with budgeting tools, especially those related to capital rationing, budget forecasting, and analyzing government revenue and expenditure. Written in a concise and easy to understand manner, this book captures the multidimensional nature of public budgeting that both students and practitioners will find useful. This second edition has been fully revised and updated, as well as expanded to include new material and exercises. It will appeal to all those studying public administration, financial management and public budgeting.
Budgeting Forecasting And Planning In Uncertain Times
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Author : Michael Coveney
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2017-04-24
Budgeting Forecasting And Planning In Uncertain Times written by Michael Coveney and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-04-24 with Business & Economics categories.
Budgeting, planning and forecasting are critical management tasks that not only impact the future success of an organization, but can threaten its very survival if done badly. Yet in spite of their importance, the speed and complexity of today’s business environment has caused a rapid decrease in the planning time horizon. As a consequence, the traditional planning processes have become unsuitable for most organization’s needs. In this book, students will find new, original insights, including: 7 planning models that every organization needs to plan and manage performance 6 ways in which performance can be viewed A planning framework based on best management practices that can cope with an unpredictable business environment The application of technology to planning and latest developments in systems Results of the survey conducted for the book on the state of planning in organizations
Revenue Forecasting How Is It Done Results From A Survey Of Low Income Countries
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Author : Annette Kyobe
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2005-02
Revenue Forecasting How Is It Done Results From A Survey Of Low Income Countries written by Annette Kyobe and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-02 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper takes stock of revenue forecasting practices in low-income countries, and provides a comprehensive and condensed account of the revenue forecasting process. Based on a new dataset on 34 low-income countries, it catalogues forecasting practices and procedures from inception until budget submission, focusing primarily on institutional aspects and processes. The paper also synthesizes three key characteristics of forecasting practices, formality, organizational simplicity, and transparency, and empirically explores their determinants. High levels of country corruption are associated with less formal and less transparent forecasts. Past IMF involvement in a country increases the formality of the process, but does not improve public access to information.