Heavy Tailed Distributions In Disaster Analysis
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Heavy Tailed Distributions In Disaster Analysis
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Author : V. Pisarenko
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2010-07-20
Heavy Tailed Distributions In Disaster Analysis written by V. Pisarenko and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-07-20 with Science categories.
Mathematically, natural disasters of all types are characterized by heavy tailed distributions. The analysis of such distributions with common methods, such as averages and dispersions, can therefore lead to erroneous conclusions. The statistical methods described in this book avoid such pitfalls. Seismic disasters are studied, primarily thanks to the availability of an ample statistical database. New approaches are presented to seismic risk estimation and forecasting the damage caused by earthquakes, ranging from typical, moderate events to very rare, extreme disasters. Analysis of these latter events is based on the limit theorems of probability and the duality of the generalized Pareto distribution and generalized extreme value distribution. It is shown that the parameter most widely used to estimate seismic risk – Mmax, the maximum possible earthquake value – is potentially non-robust. Robust analogues of this parameter are suggested and calculated for some seismic catalogues. Trends in the costs inferred by damage from natural disasters as related to changing social and economic situations are examined for different regions. The results obtained argue for sustainable development, whereas entirely different, incorrect conclusions can be drawn if the specific properties of the heavy-tailed distribution and change in completeness of data on natural hazards are neglected. This pioneering work is directed at risk assessment specialists in general, seismologists, administrators and all those interested in natural disasters and their impact on society.
Statistical Analysis Of Natural Disasters And Related Losses
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Author : V.F. Pisarenko
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-09-11
Statistical Analysis Of Natural Disasters And Related Losses written by V.F. Pisarenko and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-09-11 with Nature categories.
The study of disaster statistics and disaster occurrence is a complicated interdisciplinary field involving the interplay of new theoretical findings from several scientific fields like mathematics, physics, and computer science. Statistical studies on the mode of occurrence of natural disasters largely rely on fundamental findings in the statistics of rare events, which were derived in the 20th century. With regard to natural disasters, it is not so much the fact that the importance of this problem for mankind was recognized during the last third of the 20th century - the myths one encounters in ancient civilizations show that the problem of disasters has always been recognized - rather, it is the fact that mankind now possesses the necessary theoretical and practical tools to effectively study natural disasters, which in turn supports effective, major practical measures to minimize their impact. All the above factors have resulted in considerable progress in natural disaster research. Substantial accrued material on natural disasters and the use of advanced recording techniques have opened new doors for empirical analysis. However, despite the considerable progress made, the situation is still far from ideal. Sufficiently complete catalogs of events are still not available for many types of disasters, and the methodological and even terminological bases of research need to be further developed and standardized. The present monograph summarizes recent advances in the field of disaster statistics, primarily focusing on the occurrence of disasters that can be described by distributions with heavy tails. These disasters typically occur on a very broad range of scales, the rare greatest events being capable of causing losses comparable to the total losses of all smaller disasters of the same type. Audience: This SpringerBrief will be a valuable resource for those working in the fields of natural disaster research, risk assessment and loss mitigation at regional and federal governing bodies and in the insurance business, as well as for a broad range of readers interested in problems concerning natural disasters and their effects on human life.
Multi Fractal Traffic And Anomaly Detection In Computer Communications
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Author : Ming Li
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2022-12-29
Multi Fractal Traffic And Anomaly Detection In Computer Communications written by Ming Li and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-12-29 with Mathematics categories.
This book provides a comprehensive theory of mono- and multi-fractal traffic, including the basics of long-range dependent time series and 1/f noise, ergodicity and predictability of traffic, traffic modeling and simulation, stationarity tests of traffic, traffic measurement and the anomaly detection of traffic in communications networks. Proving that mono-fractal LRD time series is ergodic, the book exhibits that LRD traffic is stationary. The author shows that the stationarity of multi-fractal traffic relies on observation time scales, and proposes multi-fractional generalized Cauchy processes and modified multi-fractional Gaussian noise. The book also establishes a set of guidelines for determining the record length of traffic in measurement. Moreover, it presents an approach of traffic simulation, as well as the anomaly detection of traffic under distributed-denial-of service attacks. Scholars and graduates studying network traffic in computer science will find the book beneficial.
Handbook Of Heavy Tailed Distributions In Asset Management And Risk Management
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Author : Michele Leonardo Bianchi
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2019-03-08
Handbook Of Heavy Tailed Distributions In Asset Management And Risk Management written by Michele Leonardo Bianchi and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-03-08 with Business & Economics categories.
The study of heavy-tailed distributions allows researchers to represent phenomena that occasionally exhibit very large deviations from the mean. The dynamics underlying these phenomena is an interesting theoretical subject, but the study of their statistical properties is in itself a very useful endeavor from the point of view of managing assets and controlling risk. In this book, the authors are primarily concerned with the statistical properties of heavy-tailed distributions and with the processes that exhibit jumps. A detailed overview with a Matlab implementation of heavy-tailed models applied in asset management and risk managements is presented. The book is not intended as a theoretical treatise on probability or statistics, but as a tool to understand the main concepts regarding heavy-tailed random variables and processes as applied to real-world applications in finance. Accordingly, the authors review approaches and methodologies whose realization will be useful for developing new methods for forecasting of financial variables where extreme events are not treated as anomalies, but as intrinsic parts of the economic process.
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard And Risk Analysis
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Author : Katsuichiro Goda
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2024-10-31
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard And Risk Analysis written by Katsuichiro Goda and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-10-31 with Science categories.
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: Towards Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience covers recent calls for advances in quantitative tsunami hazard and risk analyses for the synthesis of broad knowledge basis and solid understanding of interdisciplinary fields, spanning seismology, tsunami science, and coastal engineering. These new approaches are essential for enhanced disaster resilience of society under multiple hazards and changing climate as tsunamis can cause catastrophic loss to coastal cities and communities globally.This is a low-probability high-consequence event, and it is not easy to develop effective disaster risk reduction measures. In particular, uncertainties associated with tsunami hazards and risks are large. The knowledge and skills for quantitative probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessments are in high demand and are required in various related fields, including disaster risk management (governments and local communities), and the insurance and reinsurance industry (catastrophe model). - Focuses on fundamentals on probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis - Includes case studies covering a wide range of applications related to tsunami hazard and risk assessments - Covers tsunami disaster risk management
Heavy Tailed Distributions And Robustness In Economics And Finance
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Author : Marat Ibragimov
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2015-05-23
Heavy Tailed Distributions And Robustness In Economics And Finance written by Marat Ibragimov and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-05-23 with Business & Economics categories.
This book focuses on general frameworks for modeling heavy-tailed distributions in economics, finance, econometrics, statistics, risk management and insurance. A central theme is that of (non-)robustness, i.e., the fact that the presence of heavy tails can either reinforce or reverse the implications of a number of models in these fields, depending on the degree of heavy-tailed ness. These results motivate the development and applications of robust inference approaches under heavy tails, heterogeneity and dependence in observations. Several recently developed robust inference approaches are discussed and illustrated, together with applications.
Sustainable Value Chain Management
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Author : François Maon
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2016-04-01
Sustainable Value Chain Management written by François Maon and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The way organizations manage their value chain has changed dramatically over the past decade. Today, organizations take account of economic issues, but they also adopt a broader perspective of their purpose including social and environmental issues. Yet despite its global spread, sustainable value chain management remains an uncertain and poorly defined ambition, with few absolutes. The social and environmental issues that organizations should address easily can be interpreted as including virtually everything. Current literature on the topic seeks to understand the effects and management of initiatives dealing with diversity, human rights, safety, philanthropy, community, and environment. However, the penetration of social and environmental considerations into value chain management is described as ’desire lacking reality’ thereby making the idea a patchy success. The objective of this research anthology is to investigate different angles of sustainable value chain management. The book’s 27 chapters fill holes and explore new fields; the chapters are organised in five sections: Sustainable value chains - context, drivers, and barriers; Sustainable value chains - managing activities; Sustainable value chains - managing networks and collaboration; Sustainable value chains - integrative perspectives; and Sustainable value chains - specific sectorial and industry perspectives.
Captain Scott Icy Deceits And Untold Realities
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Author : Krzysztof Sienicki
language : en
Publisher: krzysztof sienicki
Release Date : 2016-11-01
Captain Scott Icy Deceits And Untold Realities written by Krzysztof Sienicki and has been published by krzysztof sienicki this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-01 with History categories.
This expertly written book is nothing less than a daring challenge to the prevailing views of Captain Robert F. Scott’s journey to the South Pole and consequent disaster. Borrowing from various scientific disciplines, Krzysztof Sienicki lucidly argues against each of the presumed causes of Captain Scott and his companions’ deaths. In particular, he demolishes the notions of extreme low temperatures, ferocious winds, and food/fuel shortages as the main causes of the disaster. Using neural network computer simulations, he proves that the Extreme Cold Snap, Never Ending Gale, and food/fuel scarcity never occurred. By eliminating the alleged causes of the disaster, the author provides data and arguments that the deaths (Scott, Wilson and Bowers) were a matter of choice rather than fate. The choice was made long before there was an actual end of food/fuel and long before the end of the physical strength needed to reach delusive salvation at One Ton Depôt.
Machine Learning And The City
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Author : Silvio Carta
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2022-05-17
Machine Learning And The City written by Silvio Carta and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-05-17 with Architecture categories.
Machine Learning and the City Explore the applications of machine learning and artificial intelligence to the built environment Machine Learning and the City: Applications in Architecture and Urban Design delivers a robust exploration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) in the context of the built environment. Relevant contributions from leading scholars in their respective fields describe the ideas and techniques that underpin ML and AI, how to begin using ML and AI in urban design, and the likely impact of ML and AI on the future of city design and planning. Each section couples theoretical and technical chapters, authoritative references, and concrete examples and projects that illustrate the efficacy and power of machine learning in urban design. The book also includes: An introduction to the probabilistic logic that underpins machine learning Comprehensive explorations of the applications of machine learning and artificial intelligence to urban environments Practical discussions of the consequences of applied machine learning and the future of urban design Perfect for designers approaching machine learning and AI for the first time, Machine Learning and the City: Applications in Architecture and Urban Design will also earn a place in the libraries of urban planners and engineers involved in urban design.
Statistical Laws In Complex Systems
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Author : Eduardo G. Altmann
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2024-12-14
Statistical Laws In Complex Systems written by Eduardo G. Altmann and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-12-14 with Computers categories.
This book provides a unifying approach to the study of statistical laws, critically evaluating their role in the theoretical understanding of complex systems and the different data-analysis methods used to evaluate them. Statistical laws describe regular patterns observed in diverse scientific domains, ranging from the magnitude of earthquakes (Gutenberg-Richter law) and metabolic rates in organisms (Kleiber's law), to the frequency distribution of words in texts (Zipf's and Herdan-Heaps' laws), and productivity metrics of cities (urban scaling laws). The origins of these laws, their empirical validity, and the insights they provide into underlying systems have been subjects of scientific inquiry for centuries. Through a historical review and a unified analysis, this book argues that the persistent controversies on the validity of statistical laws are predominantly rooted not in novel empirical findings but in the discordance among data-analysis techniques, mechanistic models, and the interpretations of statistical laws. Starting with simple examples and progressing to more advanced time-series and statistical methods, this book and its accompanying repository provide comprehensive material for researchers interested in analyzing data, testing and comparing different laws, and interpreting results in both existing and new datasets.