Identifying Optimal Indicators And Lag Terms For Nowcasting Models
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Identifying Optimal Indicators And Lag Terms For Nowcasting Models
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Author : Jing Xie
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-03-03
Identifying Optimal Indicators And Lag Terms For Nowcasting Models written by Jing Xie and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-03-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Many central banks and government agencies use nowcasting techniques to obtain policy relevant information about the business cycle. Existing nowcasting methods, however, have two critical shortcomings for this purpose. First, in contrast to machine-learning models, they do not provide much if any guidance on selecting the best explantory variables (both high- and low-frequency indicators) from the (typically) larger set of variables available to the nowcaster. Second, in addition to the selection of explanatory variables, the order of the autoregression and moving average terms to use in the baseline nowcasting regression is often set arbitrarily. This paper proposes a simple procedure that simultaneously selects the optimal indicators and ARIMA(p,q) terms for the baseline nowcasting regression. The proposed AS-ARIMAX (Adjusted Stepwise Autoregressive Moving Average methods with exogenous variables) approach significantly reduces out-of-sample root mean square error for nowcasts of real GDP of six countries, including India, Argentina, Australia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Handbook Of Us Consumer Economics
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Author : Andrew Haughwout
language : en
Publisher: Academic Press
Release Date : 2019-08-12
Handbook Of Us Consumer Economics written by Andrew Haughwout and has been published by Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-08-12 with Business & Economics categories.
Handbook of U.S. Consumer Economics presents a deep understanding on key, current topics and a primer on the landscape of contemporary research on the U.S. consumer. This volume reveals new insights into household decision-making on consumption and saving, borrowing and investing, portfolio allocation, demand of professional advice, and retirement choices. Nearly 70% of U.S. gross domestic product is devoted to consumption, making an understanding of the consumer a first order issue in macroeconomics. After all, understanding how households played an important role in the boom and bust cycle that led to the financial crisis and recent great recession is a key metric. Introduces household finance by examining consumption and borrowing choices Tackles macro-problems by observing new, original micro-data Looks into the future of consumer spending by using data, not questionnaires
U Midas
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Author : Claudia Foroni
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
U Midas written by Claudia Foroni and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with categories.
Midas Versus Mixed Frequency Var
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Author : Vladimir Kuzin
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Midas Versus Mixed Frequency Var written by Vladimir Kuzin and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with categories.
The Oxford Handbook Of Economic Forecasting
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Author : Michael P. Clements
language : en
Publisher: OUP USA
Release Date : 2011-07-08
The Oxford Handbook Of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and has been published by OUP USA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-07-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.
Multiple Aspect Analysis Of Semantic Trajectories
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Author : Konstantinos Tserpes
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-01-01
Multiple Aspect Analysis Of Semantic Trajectories written by Konstantinos Tserpes and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-01-01 with Application software categories.
This open access book constitutes the refereed post-conference proceedings of the First International Workshop on Multiple-Aspect Analysis of Semantic Trajectories, MASTER 2019, held in conjunction with the 19th European Conference on Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, ECML PKDD 2019, in Würzburg, Germany, in September 2019. The 8 full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 12 submissions. They represent an interesting mix of techniques to solve recurrent as well as new problems in the semantic trajectory domain, such as data representation models, data management systems, machine learning approaches for anomaly detection, and common pathways identification.
Data Science For Economics And Finance
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Author : Sergio Consoli
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021
Data Science For Economics And Finance written by Sergio Consoli and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with Application software categories.
This open access book covers the use of data science, including advanced machine learning, big data analytics, Semantic Web technologies, natural language processing, social media analysis, time series analysis, among others, for applications in economics and finance. In addition, it shows some successful applications of advanced data science solutions used to extract new knowledge from data in order to improve economic forecasting models. The book starts with an introduction on the use of data science technologies in economics and finance and is followed by thirteen chapters showing success stories of the application of specific data science methodologies, touching on particular topics related to novel big data sources and technologies for economic analysis (e.g. social media and news); big data models leveraging on supervised/unsupervised (deep) machine learning; natural language processing to build economic and financial indicators; and forecasting and nowcasting of economic variables through time series analysis. This book is relevant to all stakeholders involved in digital and data-intensive research in economics and finance, helping them to understand the main opportunities and challenges, become familiar with the latest methodological findings, and learn how to use and evaluate the performances of novel tools and frameworks. It primarily targets data scientists and business analysts exploiting data science technologies, and it will also be a useful resource to research students in disciplines and courses related to these topics. Overall, readers will learn modern and effective data science solutions to create tangible innovations for economic and financial applications.
Guidelines On Producing Leading Composite And Sentiment Indicators
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Author : United Nations
language : en
Publisher: United Nations
Release Date : 2019-12-18
Guidelines On Producing Leading Composite And Sentiment Indicators written by United Nations and has been published by United Nations this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-12-18 with Political Science categories.
Leading, composite and sentiment indicators offer a powerful way of communication of statistical information and reaching out to users of statistics. The indicators can provide relevant and timely information on aspects of the economy and the social society that are not covered by other statistics. They can also provide information on complex phenomena in simple and condensed form, for instance on the current or expected economic development or on the well-being or sense of happiness of the citizens. These Guidelines provide guidance to statistical offices on their possible roles in developing and producing leading, composite and sentiment indicators and give practical and operational guidance to statistical offices that produce or consider producing these indicators. Existing examples of good practice are also referenced.
Macrofinancial Causes Of Optimism In Growth Forecasts
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Author : Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-11-12
Macrofinancial Causes Of Optimism In Growth Forecasts written by Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-11-12 with Business & Economics categories.
We analyze the causes of the apparent bias towards optimism in growth forecasts underpinning the design of IMF-supported programs, which has been documented in the literature. We find that financial variables observable to forecasters are strong predictors of growth forecast errors. The greater the expansion of the credit-to-GDP gap in the years preceding a program, the greater its over-optimism about growth over the next two years. This result is strongest among forecasts that were most optimistic, where errors are also increasing in the economy’s degree of liability dollarization. We find that the inefficient use of financial information applies to growth forecasts more broadly, including the IMF’s forecasts in the World Economic Outlook and those produced by professional forecasters compiled by Consensus Economics. We conclude that improved macrofinancial analysis represents a promising avenue for reducing over-optimism in growth forecasts.
Big Data
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Author : Cornelia Hammer
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-09-13
Big Data written by Cornelia Hammer and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-09-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Big data are part of a paradigm shift that is significantly transforming statistical agencies, processes, and data analysis. While administrative and satellite data are already well established, the statistical community is now experimenting with structured and unstructured human-sourced, process-mediated, and machine-generated big data. The proposed SDN sets out a typology of big data for statistics and highlights that opportunities to exploit big data for official statistics will vary across countries and statistical domains. To illustrate the former, examples from a diverse set of countries are presented. To provide a balanced assessment on big data, the proposed SDN also discusses the key challenges that come with proprietary data from the private sector with regard to accessibility, representativeness, and sustainability. It concludes by discussing the implications for the statistical community going forward.