Macrofinancial Causes Of Optimism In Growth Forecasts
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Macrofinancial Causes Of Optimism In Growth Forecasts
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Author : Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-11-12
Macrofinancial Causes Of Optimism In Growth Forecasts written by Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-11-12 with Business & Economics categories.
We analyze the causes of the apparent bias towards optimism in growth forecasts underpinning the design of IMF-supported programs, which has been documented in the literature. We find that financial variables observable to forecasters are strong predictors of growth forecast errors. The greater the expansion of the credit-to-GDP gap in the years preceding a program, the greater its over-optimism about growth over the next two years. This result is strongest among forecasts that were most optimistic, where errors are also increasing in the economy’s degree of liability dollarization. We find that the inefficient use of financial information applies to growth forecasts more broadly, including the IMF’s forecasts in the World Economic Outlook and those produced by professional forecasters compiled by Consensus Economics. We conclude that improved macrofinancial analysis represents a promising avenue for reducing over-optimism in growth forecasts.
Macro Financial Policies And Vulnerabilities In Imf Supported Programs
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Author : Yazan Al-Karablieh
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2025-05-23
Macro Financial Policies And Vulnerabilities In Imf Supported Programs written by Yazan Al-Karablieh and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-05-23 with categories.
We construct a unique dataset by collecting macro-financial commitments data using textual analysis of the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFPs), a document outlining, inter-alia, policy commitments by member countries, in the context of an IMF-supported program. We combine this data with information on structural conditionality. Using a staggered difference-in-differences methodology, we show that IMF-supported programs with macro-financial policy commitments are followed by periods of lower non-performing loans and in some cases lower credit-to-GDP ratios, relative to IMF-supported programs without macro-financial commitments, mostly for the post global financial crisis (GFC) period before the COVID-19 pandemic. The NPL-to-loans ratio does not seem to decrease as a result of credit expansion. The results point to stronger and more abrupt declines in credit-to-GDP following ex-post macro-financial policies, those implemented after a crisis occurs (e.g., restructuring), and milder and more gradual declines following ex-ante policies, those implemented before risks materialize (e.g., regulatory requirements). The responses are also larger when countries have positive credit gaps at the start of the program than when credit gaps are negative. These results point to the importance of considering the country’s position in the credit cycle in program design and in addressing vulnerabilities preemptively to reduce the need for abrupt corrections when risks materialize. Finally, macro-financial policies targeting financial inclusion tend to increase credit-to-GDP ratios in low credit-to-GDP program countries.
Operational Guidance Note On Program Design And Conditionality
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-01-30
Operational Guidance Note On Program Design And Conditionality written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-01-30 with Business & Economics categories.
This note aims to provide guidance on the key principles and considerations underlying the design of Fund-supported programs. The note expands on the previous operational guidance notes on conditionality published over 2003-2014, incorporating lessons from the 2018-19 Review of Conditionality, and other recent key policy developments including the recommendation of the Management’s Implementation Plan in response to Independent Evaluation Office (IEO)’s report on growth and adjustment in IMF-supported programs. The note in particular highlights operational advice to (i) improve the realism of macroeconomic forecast in programs and fostering a more systematic analysis of contingency plans and risks; (ii) improve the focus, depth, implementation, and tailoring of structural conditions (SCs), with due consideration of growth effects; and (iii) help strengthen the ownership of country authorities. Designed as a comprehensive reference and primer on program design and conditionality in an accessible and transparent manner, the note refers in summary to a broad range of economic and policy considerations over the lifecycle of Fund-supported programs. As with all guidance notes, the relevant IMF Executive Board Decisions remain the primary legal authority on matters covered in this note.
On The Macroeconomic Consequences Of Over Optimism
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Author : Paul Beaudry
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-05-30
On The Macroeconomic Consequences Of Over Optimism written by Paul Beaudry and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Is over-optimism about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy, or does over-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we provide evidence that recessions, fiscal problems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countries where past growth expectations have been overly optimistic. To examine this question, we look at the medium-run effects of instances of over-optimism or caution in IMF forecasts. To isolate the causal effect of over-optimism we take an instrumental variables approach, where we exploit variation provided by the allocation of IMF Mission Chiefs across countries. As a necessary first step, we document that IMF Mission Chiefs tend to systematically differ in their individual degrees of forecast-optimism or caution. The mechanism that transforms over-optimism into a later recession seems to run through higher debt accumulation, both public and private. Our findings illustrate the potency of unjustified optimism and underline the importance of basing economic forecasts upon realistic medium-term prospects.
Europe S Debt Un Sustainability
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Author : Mr. Aleš Bulíř
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2025-04-04
Europe S Debt Un Sustainability written by Mr. Aleš Bulíř and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-04-04 with categories.
No large European countries and only few small ones have met the so-called Bohn rule during the past 40 years or so. The Bohn rule specifies that past increases of public debt need to be systematically compensated with current and future fiscal surpluses to stabilize debt at some steady-state level. We find that post-1980 European fiscal primary balances have been driven by spending growth and consumption smoothing. The results change little between periods before and after the global financial crisis.
Macrofinancial Linkages
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Author : Mr.Christopher W. Crowe
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-08-25
Macrofinancial Linkages written by Mr.Christopher W. Crowe and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-08-25 with Business & Economics categories.
Macrofinancial linkages have long been at the core of the IMF's mandate to oversee the stability of the global financial system. With the advent of the economic crisis, the Fund has drawn on this research in order to contribute to critical debates on the nature of appropriate policy responses at both the national and multilateral levels. The current juncture offers a good opportunity to take stock of this body of research by IMF staff and to share it with a wider audience, particularly since few collections have been published in this area. This volume brings together some of the best writing by IMF economists on macrofinancial issues, and highlights the issues and approaches that have guided IMF thinking in an area that makes up an increasingly important component of the IMF's overall remit. The chapters in the volume fit into three broad themes: financial crises and boom-bust cycles; financial integration, financial liberalization, and economic performance; and policy issues relating to macroeconomic policy and the corporate and financial sectors-including domestic and external financial liberalization.
Optimism Pessimism And Short Term Fluctuations
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Author : Gabriel Di Bella
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-01-05
Optimism Pessimism And Short Term Fluctuations written by Gabriel Di Bella and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-01-05 with Business & Economics categories.
Economic theory offers several explanations as to why shifting expectations about future economic activity affect current demand. Abstracting from whether changes in expectations originate from swings in beliefs or fundamentals, we test empirically whether more optimistic or pessimistic potential output forecasts trigger short-term fluctuations in private consumption and investment. Relying on a dataset of actual data and forecasts for 89 countries over the 1990-2022 period, we find that private economic agents learn from different sources of in- formation about future potential output growth, and adjust their current demand accordingly over the two years following the shock in expectations. To provide a theoretical foundation to the empirical analysis, we also propose a simple Keynesian model that highlights the role of expectations about long-term output in determining short-term economic activity.
2016 Annual Competitiveness And Growth Slowdown Analysis For Sub National Economies Of India
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Author : Khee Giap Tan
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2017-11-21
2016 Annual Competitiveness And Growth Slowdown Analysis For Sub National Economies Of India written by Khee Giap Tan and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-21 with Business & Economics categories.
This book undertakes rigorous empirical research on competitiveness of the sub-national economies of India. One of the cornerstones of Asia Competitiveness Institute (ACI)'s research strategies is to factor in the diversity of sub-national economies in a large and diverse country like India and undertake rigorous research that will inform policymakers in these economies. ACI's competitiveness framework computes rankings for all the sub-national economies of India by accounting for a plethora of socio-economic development indicators that determine competitiveness.Into its fourth edition, this book entitled 2016 Annual Competitiveness and Growth Slowdown Analysis for Sub-National Economies of India presents our annual update of competitiveness analysis of India's sub-national economies. ACI's competitiveness analysis employs 75 different indicators across four different environments to capture the dynamics of competitiveness in a holistic way at the sub-national level. The book also has a What-if competitiveness simulation exercise to identify the specific policy areas that each sub-national economy must focus on to improve its rankings.Further to an analysis of competitiveness, the book delves deeper into understanding the dynamics of economic growth of the various sub-national economies in India, which is a significant value-addition to the related literature as the book has a comprehensive and dedicated discussion on the prospects of and determinants of growth slowdown at the sub-national level.
The Office For Budget Responsibility And The Politics Of Technocratic Economic Governance
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Author : Ben Clift
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2023-02-12
The Office For Budget Responsibility And The Politics Of Technocratic Economic Governance written by Ben Clift and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-02-12 with Political Science categories.
The Office for Budget Responsibility and the Politics of Technocratic Economic Governance is about the politics of economic ideas and technocratic economic governance. It is also a book about the changing political economy of British capitalism's relationship to the European and wider global economies. It focuses on the creation in 2010 and subsequent operation of the independent body created to oversee fiscal rectitude in Britain, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). More broadly, it analyses the politics of economic management of the UK's uncertain trajectory, and of British capitalism's restructuring in the 2010s and 2020s in the face of the upheavals of the global financial crisis (GFC), Brexit and COVID. A focus on the intersection between expert economic opinion of the OBR as UK's fiscal watchdog, and the political economy of British capitalism's evolution through and after Brexit, animates a framework for analysing the politics of technocratic economic governance. The technocratic vision of independent fiscal councils fails to grasp a core political economy insight: that economic knowledge and narratives are political and social constructs. The book unpacks the competing constructions of economic reason that underpin models of British capitalism, and through that inform expert economic assessment of the UK economy. It also underlines how contestable political economic assumptions undergird visions of Britain's international economic relations. These were all brought to the fore in economic policy debates about Britain's place in the world, which in the 2010s centred on Brexit. This book analyses OBR forecasting and fiscal oversight in that broader political context, rather than as a narrowly technical pursuit.
The Blackwell Companion To Maritime Economics
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Author : Wayne K. Talley
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2012-02-13
The Blackwell Companion To Maritime Economics written by Wayne K. Talley and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-02-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Maritime Economics The Blackwell Companion to Maritime Economics presents a comprehensive and in-depth coverage of shipping and port economics. Featuring contributions from the most respected international specialists in the field, this reference offers up-to-date insights into maritime carriers and their markets (e.g., freight, intermodal and passenger), shipping economics (e.g., dry bulk, liquid bulk, container, regulation, taxation, seafaring, safety and piracy), ship economics (e.g., equity, bond and hedging ship finance) and port economics (e.g., governance, labor, competition, efficiency, choice, investment, clusters, inspection and security). In addition to providing a comprehensive survey of the literature on past and current practices on a wide range of maritime topics, new empirical research on safety and piracy in shipping, ship finance, and container terminal efficiency is presented as well as original theories for maritime carriers and ports that provide greater insights into their operations. With its unprecedented breadth of coverage and range of scholarship, The Blackwell Companion to Maritime Economics represents the new standard resource for any and all topics related to maritime economics.