Imf Lending In An Interconnected World
DOWNLOAD
Download Imf Lending In An Interconnected World PDF/ePub or read online books in Mobi eBooks. Click Download or Read Online button to get Imf Lending In An Interconnected World book now. This website allows unlimited access to, at the time of writing, more than 1.5 million titles, including hundreds of thousands of titles in various foreign languages. If the content not found or just blank you must refresh this page
Imf Lending In An Interconnected World
DOWNLOAD
Author : Jean-Guillaume Poulain
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-07-10
Imf Lending In An Interconnected World written by Jean-Guillaume Poulain and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-07-10 with Business & Economics categories.
We analyze the determinants of IMF lending since the early nineties, a period during which the roles of financial cycles and interconnectedness as amplifiers and transmitters of economic crises have gained prominence. First, we show that the global financial cycle is an important driver of IMF lending cycles. Second, using a panel of 91 advanced, emerging, and frontier economies over 1992-2014, we show that global factors and interconnectedness, as proxied by a countries’ potential exposure to economic spillovers from trade partners, together with more traditional idiosyncratic factors, have a significant impact on the probability that a member country obtains financial assistance from the IMF. Our results are robust to various robustness checks. The approach presented in this paper can be used to assess future demand for IMF financial assistance.
Imf Lending In An Interconnected World
DOWNLOAD
Author : Jean-Guillaume Poulain
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-07-10
Imf Lending In An Interconnected World written by Jean-Guillaume Poulain and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-07-10 with Business & Economics categories.
We analyze the determinants of IMF lending since the early nineties, a period during which the roles of financial cycles and interconnectedness as amplifiers and transmitters of economic crises have gained prominence. First, we show that the global financial cycle is an important driver of IMF lending cycles. Second, using a panel of 91 advanced, emerging, and frontier economies over 1992-2014, we show that global factors and interconnectedness, as proxied by a countries’ potential exposure to economic spillovers from trade partners, together with more traditional idiosyncratic factors, have a significant impact on the probability that a member country obtains financial assistance from the IMF. Our results are robust to various robustness checks. The approach presented in this paper can be used to assess future demand for IMF financial assistance.
Assessing Imf Lending A Model Of Sample Selection
DOWNLOAD
Author : Nicolas Mäder
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-07-19
Assessing Imf Lending A Model Of Sample Selection written by Nicolas Mäder and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-07-19 with Business & Economics categories.
Extending previous work on the determinants of IMF lending in an interconnected world, we introduce a model of sample selection in which both selection and size dimensions of individual IMF arrangements are presented within a unified econometric framework. We allow for unobserved heterogeneity to create an additional channel for sample selection at the country level. The results suggest that higher external financing needs, larger exchange rate depreciation, lower GDP growth, as well as deteriorated global financial conditions, are associated with larger individual IMF arrangement sizes. Using the estimated parameters, Monte Carlo simulation of a wide spectrum of global shock scenarios suggest that the distribution of potential aggregate IMF lending exhibits a substantial right tail. Our approach may provide an insightful input to broader policy discussions on the adequacy of the IMF resources.
Predicting Imf Supported Programs A Machine Learning Approach
DOWNLOAD
Author : Tsendsuren Batsuuri
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-03-08
Predicting Imf Supported Programs A Machine Learning Approach written by Tsendsuren Batsuuri and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This study applies state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques to forecast IMF-supported programs, analyzes the ML prediction results relative to traditional econometric approaches, explores non-linear relationships among predictors indicative of IMF-supported programs, and evaluates model robustness with regard to different feature sets and time periods. ML models consistently outperform traditional methods in out-of-sample prediction of new IMF-supported arrangements with key predictors that align well with the literature and show consensus across different algorithms. The analysis underscores the importance of incorporating a variety of external, fiscal, real, and financial features as well as institutional factors like membership in regional financing arrangements. The findings also highlight the varying influence of data processing choices such as feature selection, sampling techniques, and missing data imputation on the performance of different ML models and therefore indicate the usefulness of a flexible, algorithm-tailored approach. Additionally, the results reveal that models that are most effective in near and medium-term predictions may tend to underperform over the long term, thus illustrating the need for regular updates or more stable – albeit potentially near-term suboptimal – models when frequent updates are impractical.
Repeated Use Of Imf Supported Programs Determinants And Forecasting
DOWNLOAD
Author : Martin Iseringhausen
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-11-08
Repeated Use Of Imf Supported Programs Determinants And Forecasting written by Martin Iseringhausen and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-11-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper studies the determinants of repeated use of Fund-supported programs in a large sample covering virtually all General Resources Account (GRA) arrangements that were approved between 1952 and 2012. Generally, the revolving nature of the IMF’s resources calls for the temporary sup-port of member countries to address balance of payments problems while repeated use has often been viewed as program failure. First, using probit models we show that a small number of country-specific variables such as growth, the current account balance, the international reserves position, and the institutional framework play a significant role in explaining repeated use. Second, we discuss the role of IMF-specific and program-specific variables and find evidence that a country’s track record with the Fund is a good predictor of repeated use. Finally, we conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exer-cise. While our approach has predictive power for repeated use, exact forecasting remains challenging. From a policy perspective, the results could prove useful to assess the risk IMF programs pose to the revolving nature of the Fund’s financial resources.
Imf Research Bulletin Fall 2017
DOWNLOAD
Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-11-09
Imf Research Bulletin Fall 2017 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-09 with Business & Economics categories.
The Fall 2017 IMF Research Bulletin includes a Q&A article covering "Seven Questions on the Globalization of Farmland" by Christian Bogmans. The first research summary, by Manmohan Singh and Haobing Wang is "Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies: Some Policy Implications." The second research summary is "Leaning Against the Windy Bank Lending" by Giovanni Melina and Stefania Villa. A listing of new IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes is featured, as well as new titles from IMF Publications. Information on IMF Economic Review is also included.
Adequacy Of Fund Resources Preliminary Considerations
DOWNLOAD
Author : International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-03-05
Adequacy Of Fund Resources Preliminary Considerations written by International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-05 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper provides background for initial considerations on the appropriate size of the Fund’s overall lending capacity over the medium term. The paper reviews developments in the demand for Fund resources during the global crisis. The paper also argues that the global economy is changing in fundamental ways, with implications for the size of the Fund. Against this background, the analysis suggests that the current overall lending capacity of the Fund should be seen as a minimum. Additional resources would be needed if the Fund were to introduce changes to its lending framework. While the financing structure of the Fund should be largely quota-based, staff sees a strong case for continuing to backstop quota resources with a standing borrowing facility. Maintaining the Fund’s current overall lending capacity would require swift action by the membership.
Adequacy Of Fund Resources Further Considerations
DOWNLOAD
Author : International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-03-05
Adequacy Of Fund Resources Further Considerations written by International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-05 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper is part of the workplan on the 15th General Review of Quotas (15th Review). The paper provides a two-pillar framework for assessing the adequacy of Fund resources, building on the staff paper discussed by the Board in March 2016. The second pillar of the framework is qualitative in nature. The paper also provides information to support a discussion on the mix of Fund resources.
Do Fiscal Rules Cause Better Fiscal Balances A New Instrumental Variable Strategy
DOWNLOAD
Author : Francesca G Caselli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-03-05
Do Fiscal Rules Cause Better Fiscal Balances A New Instrumental Variable Strategy written by Francesca G Caselli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-03-05 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper estimates the causal effect of fiscal rules on fiscal balances in a panel of 142 countries over the period 1985-2015. Our instrumental variable strategy exploits the geographical diffusion of fiscal rules across countries. The intuition is that reforms in neighboring countries may affect the adoption of domestic reforms through peer pressure and imitational effects. We find that fiscal rules correlate with lower deficits, but the positive link disappears when endogeneity is correctly addressed. However, when considering an index of fiscal rules’ design, we show that well-designed rules have a statistically significant impact on fiscal balances. We conduct several robustness tests and show that our results are not affected by weak instrument problems.
Preparing For The Next Financial Crisis
DOWNLOAD
Author : Olivier de Bandt
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2020-12-28
Preparing For The Next Financial Crisis written by Olivier de Bandt and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-12-28 with Business & Economics categories.
The ramifications of the Global Financial Crisis, which erupted in 2007, continue to surprise not only the general public but also finance professionals, economists, and journalists. Faced with this challenge, Preparing for the Next Financial Crisis goes back to basics. The authors ask: what do theory and empirical observations tell us about the causes and the consequences of financial crisis and instability? In what has become an increasingly complex financial world, what lessons can we learn from economic policies, which have been implemented, and research, which has developed extremely rapidly in recent years, so as not to repeat past mistakes? In this comprehensive review of the literature, which is both complete and balanced, the authors highlight the points of consensus among economists and policymakers. They assess the capacity of economic policies and institutions in limiting the cost of financial instability. In conclusion, they ask if the financial system has become safer, in the light especially of the Covid-19 Global Crisis. Ten years after the GFC crisis, this is a timely review of the reform agenda, the progress made, and the areas where further changes need to be made to address new risks and challenges.