Impact Dynamics Of Natural Disasters And The Case Of Pacific Island Countries
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Impact Dynamics Of Natural Disasters And The Case Of Pacific Island Countries
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Author : Choonsung Lim
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2025-05-02
Impact Dynamics Of Natural Disasters And The Case Of Pacific Island Countries written by Choonsung Lim and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-05-02 with categories.
This paper investigates the short- and medium-term economic impacts of natural disasters, focusing on Pacific Island Countries (PICs) and using global high-frequency nightlight data in addition to macroeconomic data. In this paper, we identify significant short-term effects on growth following natural disasters, which are exacerbated by high public debt and heightened climate vulnerability. Although the negative impacts generally diminish within a year for most countries, PICs face disproportionately larger and rising short-term disruptions (-1.4 percent of annual potential growth) and persistent medium-term consequences. Further analysis of PICs' fiscal, external, and real sectors following severe disasters using annual economic data reveals that weaker fiscal positions, partly driven by reduced output, may lead to an upward trend in public debt, and increased imports may deteriorate current account balances over the medium term. These findings underscore the need for robust counter-cyclical policies and proactive investments in climate resilience to mitigate the adverse effects of climate shocks and promote long-term economic stability
Understanding The Economic And Financial Impacts Of Natural Disasters
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Author : Charlotte Benson
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2004
Understanding The Economic And Financial Impacts Of Natural Disasters written by Charlotte Benson and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Disaster relief categories.
The Economic Impact Of Natural Disasters In Pacific Island Countries Adaptation And Preparedness
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Author : Dongyeol Lee
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-05-10
The Economic Impact Of Natural Disasters In Pacific Island Countries Adaptation And Preparedness written by Dongyeol Lee and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-10 with Nature categories.
Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to various natural disasters which are destructive, unpredictable and occur frequently. The frequency and scale of these shocks heightens the importance of medium-term economic and fiscal planning to minimize the adverse impact of disasters on economic development. This paper identifies the intensity of natural disasters for each country in the Pacific based on the distribution of damage and population affected by disasters, and estimates the impact of disasters on economic growth and international trade using a panel regression. The results show that “severe” disasters have a significant and negative impact on economic growth and lead to a deterioration of the fiscal and trade balance. We also find that the negative impact on growth is stronger for more intense disasters. Going further this paper proposes a simple and consistent method to adjust IMF staff’s economic projections and debt sustainability analysis for disaster shocks for the Pacific islands. Better incorporating the economic impact of natural disasters in the medium- and long-term economic planning would help policy makers improve fiscal policy decisions and to be better adapted and prepared for natural disasters.
The Economic Impacts Of Natural Disasters
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Author : Debarati Guha-Sapir
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2013-04-04
The Economic Impacts Of Natural Disasters written by Debarati Guha-Sapir and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-04-04 with Business & Economics categories.
Since the turn of the millennium, more than one million people have been killed and 2.3 billion others have been directly affected by natural disasters around the world. In cases like the 2010 Haiti earthquake or the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, these disasters have time and time again wrecked large populations and national infrastructures. While recognizing that improved rescue, evacuation, and disease control are crucial to reducing the effects of natural disasters, in the final analysis, poverty remains the main risk factor determining the long-term impact of natural hazards. Furthermore, natural disasters have themselves a tremendous impact on the poorest of the poor, who are often ill-prepared to deal with natural hazards and for whom a hurricane, an earthquake, or a drought can mean a permanent submersion in poverty. The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters focuses on these concerns for poverty and vulnerability. Written by a collection of esteemed scholars in disaster management and sustainable development, the report provides an overview of the general trends in natural disasters and their effects by focusing on a critical analysis of different methodologies used to assess the economic impact of natural disasters. Economic Impacts presents six national case studies (Bangladesh, Vietnam, India, Nicaragua, Japan and the Netherlands) and shows how household surveys and country-level macroeconomic data can analyze and quantify the economic impact of disasters. The researchers within Economic Impacts have created path-breaking work and have opened new avenues for thinking and debate to push forward the frontiers of knowledge on economics of natural disasters.
Size And Resilience Of The Blue Economy In Pacific Island Economies
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Author : Mr. Fabien Gonguet
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-12-20
Size And Resilience Of The Blue Economy In Pacific Island Economies written by Mr. Fabien Gonguet and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-12-20 with categories.
Economic output and livelihoods in Pacific Island economies (PIEs) rely greatly on ocean-related sectors and products, known as the ”Blue Economy”. Yet, marine ecosystems are under mounting pressure of climate change and human degradation, exposing PIEs to very large risks, while they have only limited technical and financial capacity to mitigate them. This paper aims: first to estimate the size of the Blue Economy in PIEs, based on comprehensive international input-output tables; and second to simulate the impact of selected shocks in PIEs, so as to provide insights on the resilience of the Blue Economy to shocks, including from climate change.
A Possible Approach To Fiscal Rules In Small Islands Incorporating Natural Disasters And Climate Change
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Author : Ryota Nakatani
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-09-06
A Possible Approach To Fiscal Rules In Small Islands Incorporating Natural Disasters And Climate Change written by Ryota Nakatani and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-09-06 with Business & Economics categories.
A big challenge for the economic development of small island countries is dealing with external shocks. The Pacific Islands are vulnerable to natural disasters, climate change, commodity price changes, and uncertain donor grants. The question that arises is how should small developing countries formulate a fiscal policy to achieve economic stability and fiscal sustainability when prone to various shocks? We study how natural disasters affect long-term debt dynamics and propose fiscal policy rules that could help insulate the economy from such unexpected shocks. We propose fiscal rules to address these shocks and uncertainties using the example of Papua New Guinea. Our study finds the advantages of expenditure rules, especially a recurrent expenditure rule based on non-resource and non-grant revenue, interdependently determined by government debt and budget balance targets with expected disaster shocks. This paper contributes to the literature and policy dialogue by theoretically analyzing the impact of natural disasters on debt sustainability and proposing fiscal rules against natural disasters and climate changes. Our fiscal policy framework is practically applicable for many developing countries facing increasing frequency and impact of natural disasters and climate change. Our rules-based fiscal framework is crucial for sustainable and countercyclical macroeconomic policies to build resilience against devastating natural hazards.
Growth At Risk From Natural Disasters
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Author : Mr. Tamim Bayoumi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-09-17
Growth At Risk From Natural Disasters written by Mr. Tamim Bayoumi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-09-17 with Business & Economics categories.
The paper analyzes the impact of natural disasters on per-capita GDP growth. Using a quantile regressions and growth-at-risk approach, the paper examines the impact of disasters and policy choices on the distribution of growth rather than simply its average. We find that countries that have in place disaster preparedness mechanisms and lower public debt have lower probability of witnessing a significant drop in growth as a consequence of a natural disaster, but our innovative methodology in this paper finds that the two policies are complements since their effectiveness vary across different disaster scenarios. While both are helpful for small to mid-size disasters, lower debt—and hence more fiscal space—is more beneficial in the face of very large disasters. A balanced strategy would thus involve both policies.
Resilience And Growth In The Small States Of The Pacific
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Author : Hoe Ee Khor
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-08-10
Resilience And Growth In The Small States Of The Pacific written by Hoe Ee Khor and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-08-10 with Business & Economics categories.
Pacific island countries face unique challenges to realizing their growth potential and raising living standards. This book discusses ongoing challenges facing Pacific island countries and policy options to address them. Regional cooperation and solutions tailored to their unique challenges, as well as further integration with the Asia and Pacific region will each play a role. With concerted efforts, Pacific island countries can boost potential growth, increase resilience, and improve the welfare of their citizens.
Climate Impacts On Extreme Weather
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Author : Victor Ongoma
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2022-06-10
Climate Impacts On Extreme Weather written by Victor Ongoma and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-06-10 with Science categories.
Climate Impacts on Extreme Weather: Current to Future Changes on a Local to Global Scale presents fundamentals and advances in the science of weather and climate extremes, building on the existing knowledge by using regional and global case studies. The book provides an analysis of historical and future changes, physical processes, measurements, space-time variability, socioeconomic impact, and risk management. It provides policy makers, researchers and students working in climate change with a thorough reference for understanding the diverse impacts of extreme weather and climate change on varying geographic scales. With contributions from experts across the globe, the book utilizes methods, case studies, modeling, and analysis to present valuable, up-to-date knowledge about the interaction of climate change, weather and the many implications of the changing environment. - Offers comprehensive, up-to-date coverage of climate research related to extremes - Includes both regional and global case studies for applying research to practice, providing a deeper understanding of the science - Presents both observed and projected findings using primary research and models
Excerpt Resilience And Growth In The Small States Of The Pacific
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Author : Hoe Ee Khor
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-04-07
Excerpt Resilience And Growth In The Small States Of The Pacific written by Hoe Ee Khor and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-07 with Nature categories.
This is a prepublication excerpt of Resilience and Growth in the Small States of the Pacific.