Improving Flood Prediction Assimilating Uncertain Crowdsourced Data Into Hydrologic And Hydraulic Models
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Improving Flood Prediction Assimilating Uncertain Crowdsourced Data Into Hydrologic And Hydraulic Models
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Author : Maurizio Mazzoleni
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2017-03-16
Improving Flood Prediction Assimilating Uncertain Crowdsourced Data Into Hydrologic And Hydraulic Models written by Maurizio Mazzoleni and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-03-16 with Science categories.
In recent years, the continued technological advances have led to the spread of low-cost sensors and devices supporting crowdsourcing as a way to obtain observations of hydrological variables in a more distributed way than the classic static physical sensors. The main advantage of using these type of sensors is that they can be used not only by technicians but also by regular citizens. However, due to their relatively low reliability and varying accuracy in time and space, crowdsourced observations have not been widely integrated in hydrological and/or hydraulic models for flood forecasting applications. Instead, they have generally been used to validate model results against observations, in post-event analyses. This research aims to investigate the benefits of assimilating the crowdsourced observations, coming from a distributed network of heterogeneous physical and social (static and dynamic) sensors, within hydrological and hydraulic models, in order to improve flood forecasting. The results of this study demonstrate that crowdsourced observations can significantly improve flood prediction if properly integrated in hydrological and hydraulic models. This study provides technological support to citizen observatories of water, in which citizens not only can play an active role in information capturing, evaluation and communication, leading to improved model forecasts and better flood management.
Advances On Testing And Experimentation In Civil Engineering
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Author : Carlos Chastre
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2022-08-17
Advances On Testing And Experimentation In Civil Engineering written by Carlos Chastre and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-08-17 with Technology & Engineering categories.
The book presents the recent advances on testing and experimentation in civil engineering, especially in the branches of geotechnics, transportation, hydraulics, and natural resources. It includes advances in physical modelling, monitoring techniques, data acquisition and analysis, and provides an invaluable contribution for the installation of new civil engineering experimental facilities. The first part of the book covers the latest advances in testing and experimentation in key domains of geotechnics: soil mechanics and geotechnical engineering, rock mechanics and rock engineering, and engineering geology. Some of the topics covered include new developments in topographic survey acquisition for applied mapping and in situ geotechnical investigations; laboratory and in situ tests to estimate the relevant parameters needed to model the behaviour of rock masses and land structures; monitoring and inspection techniques designed for offshore wind foundations. The second part of the book highlights the relevance of testing and monitoring in transportation. Full-scale accelerated pavement testing, and instrumentation becomes even more important nowadays when, for sustainability purposes, non-traditional materials are used in road and airfield pavements. Innovation in testing and monitoring pavements and railway tracks is also developed in this part of the book. Intelligent traffic systems are the new traffic management paradigm, and an overview of new solutions is addressed here. Finally, in the third part of the book, trends in the field and laboratory measurements and corresponding data analysis are presented according to the different hydraulic domains addressed in this publication, namely maritime hydraulics, surface water and river hydraulics and urban water.
Ict For Smart Water Systems Measurements And Data Science
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Author : Andrea Scozzari
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-11-28
Ict For Smart Water Systems Measurements And Data Science written by Andrea Scozzari and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-11-28 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Today, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) have a pervasive presence in almost every aspect of the management of water. There is no question that the collection of big data from sensing and the insights gained by smart analytics can bring massive benefits. This book focuses on new perspectives for the monitoring, assessment and control of water systems, based on tools and concepts originating from the ICT sector. It presents a portrait of up-to-date sensing techniques for water, and introduces concepts and implications with the analysis of the acquired data. Particular attention is given to the advancements in developing novel devices and data processing approaches. The chapters guide the reader through multiple disciplinary contexts, without aiming to be exhaustive, but with the effort to present relevant topics in such a highly multi-disciplinary framework. This book will be of interest to advanced students, researchers and stakeholders at various levels.
Applications Of Data Assimilation And Inverse Problems In The Earth Sciences
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Author : Alik Ismail-Zadeh
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2023-07-06
Applications Of Data Assimilation And Inverse Problems In The Earth Sciences written by Alik Ismail-Zadeh and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-07-06 with Mathematics categories.
A comprehensive reference on data assimilation and inverse problems, and their applications across a broad range of geophysical disciplines, ideal for researchers and graduate students. It highlights the importance of data assimilation for understanding dynamical processes of the Earth and its space environment, and summarises recent advances.
Improving Hydrologic Prediction Via Data Assimilation Data Fusion And High Resolution Modeling
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Author : Arezoo Rafieei Nasab
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Improving Hydrologic Prediction Via Data Assimilation Data Fusion And High Resolution Modeling written by Arezoo Rafieei Nasab and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with Heteroscedasticity categories.
With population growth, urbanization and climate change, accurate and skillful monitoring and prediction of water resources and water-related hazards are becoming increasingly important to maintaining and improving the quality of life for human beings and well-being of the ecosystem in which people live. Because most hydrologic systems are driven by atmospheric processes that are chaotic, hydrologic processes operate at many different scales, and the above systems are almost always under-observed, there are numerous sources of error in hydrologic prediction. This study aims to advance the understanding of these uncertainty sources and reduce the uncertainties to the greatest possible extent. Toward that end, we comparatively evaluate two data assimilation (DA) techniques ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and maximum likelihood ensemble filter (MLEF) to reduce the uncertainty in initial conditions of soil moisture. Results show MLEF is a strongly favorable technique for assimilating streamflow data for updating soil moisture. In most places, precipitation is by far the most important forcing in hydrologic prediction. Because radars do not measure precipitation directly, radar QPEs are subject to various sources of error. In this study, the three Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD)-based QPE products, the Digital Hybrid Scan Reflectivity (DHR), Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) and Next Generation Multisensor QPE (Q2), and the radar QPE from the Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) radar are comparatively evaluated for high-resolution hydrologic modeling in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW) area. Also, since they generally carry complementary information, one may expect to improve accuracy by fusing multiple QPEs. This study develops and comparatively evaluates four different techniques for producing high-resolution QPE by fusing multiple radar-based QPEs. Two experiments were carried out for evaluation; in one, the MPE and Q2 products were fused and, in the other, the MPE and CASA products were fused. Result show that the Simple Estimation (SE) is an effective, robust and computationally inexpensive data fusion algorithm for QPE. The other main goal of this study is to provide accurate spatial information of streamflow and soil moisture via distributed hydrologic modeling. Toward that end, we evaluated the NWS's Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) over the Trinity River Basin for several headwater basins. We also develop a prototype high resolution flash flood prediction system for Cities of Fort Worth, Arlington and Grand Prairie, a highly urbanized area. Ideally, the higher the resolution of distributed modeling and the precipitation input is, the more desirable the model output is as it provides better spatiotemporal specificity. There are, however, practical limits to the resolution of modeling. To test and ascertain the limits of high-resolution polarimetric QPE and distributed hydrologic modeling for advanced flash flood forecasting in large urban area, we performed sensitivity analysis to spatiotemporal resolution. The results indicate little consistent pattern in dependence on spatial resolution while there is a clear pattern for sensitivity to temporal resolution. More research is needed, however, to draw firmer conclusions and to assess dependence on catchment scale.
Error Assessment Of National Water Model Analysis Assimilation And Short Range Forecasts
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Author : Andrew Austin-Petersen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
Error Assessment Of National Water Model Analysis Assimilation And Short Range Forecasts written by Andrew Austin-Petersen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.
Flooding is the costliest natural disaster in the United States and tragically often leads to loss of life. Flood prediction, response and mitigation are therefore critical areas of research and have been for many decades. Hydrologic and hydraulic models are a key component of flood prediction methods and highly detailed models have been implemented in many areas of high risk which often correspond to areas with high population. However, the high cost and complexity of highly detailed models means that many areas of the US are not covered by flood prediction early warning systems. Recent increases in computational power and increased resolution and coverage of remotely sensed data have allowed for the development of a continental scale streamflow prediction system known as the National Water Model which is currently forecasting streamflow values for over 2.7 million stream reaches across the US. Flood inundation predictions can be derived from the National Water Model using digital elevation data to extract reach-scale rating curves and therefore river stage height. Using the height above nearest drainage method, flood inundation maps can be created from the stage height at relatively low computational cost at continental scale. The National Water Model is currently operating as a deterministic model for short-term predictions and does not currently include an estimate of the uncertainty in these predictions. The final streamflow values are at the end of a chain of models which originate from precipitation forecasts and go through rainfall-runoff and finally routing modules. The total uncertainty in the streamflow predictions is therefore a function of the uncertainty in each step. Uncertainty analysis commonly relies on an assessment of uncertainty in model parameters and boundary conditions, the use of perturbed inputs or through comparison of several different models of the same systems. Estimated uncertainty from the first model in a chain can then be propagated to the next model and so on until a final estimate is achieved. Unfortunately, the National Water Model is operated on a super computer and the details of the model are not available for perturbation analysis. One step in the National Water Model hourly cycle is the assimilation of USGS gage data which allows for corrections to the model state before the forecast simulation is made. This excludes USGS gage data from being used as a verification dataset. Even so, it is still an informative exercise to compare NWM predictions at these sites. There are numerous local and regional gaging stations which are not assimilated into the National Water Model and can be used as an independent check on the model output. Recent flooding in the Llano River basin in central Texas provides an opportunity to compare National Water Model predictions to both USGS and non-USGS gage readings. This thesis presents an assessment of the error in National Water Model predictions in the Llano River basin
Improving Flood Forecasting Using Conditional Bias Aware Assimilation Of Streamflow Observations And Dynamic Assessment Of Flow Dependent Information Content
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Author : Haojing Shen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
Improving Flood Forecasting Using Conditional Bias Aware Assimilation Of Streamflow Observations And Dynamic Assessment Of Flow Dependent Information Content written by Haojing Shen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with Flood forecasting categories.
Accurate forecasting of floods is a long-standing challenge in hydrology and water management. Data assimilation (DA) is a popular technique used to improve forecast accuracy by updating the model states in real time using the uncertainty-quantified actual and model-simulated observations. A particular challenge in DA concerns the ability to improve the prediction of hydrologic extremes, such as floods, which have particularly large impacts on society. Almost all DA methods used today are based on least squares minimization. As such, they are subject to conditional bias (CB) in the presence of observational uncertainties which often leads to under- and over-prediction of the predict and over the upper and lower tails, respectively. To address the adverse impact of CB in DA, conditional bias penalized Kalman filter (CBPKF) and conditional bias penalized ensemble Kalman filter (CBEnKF) have recently been proposed which minimize a weighted sum of the error variance and expectation of the CB squared. Whereas CBPKF and CBEnKF significantly improve the accuracy of the estimates over the tails, they deteriorate performance near the median due to the added penalty. To address the above, this work introduces CB-aware DA, which adaptively weights the CB penalty term in real time, and assesses the flow-dependent information content in observation and model prediction using the degrees of freedom for signal (DFS), which serves as a skill score for information fusion. CB-aware DA is then comparatively evaluated with ensemble Kalman filter in which the marginal information content of observations and its flow dependence are assessed given the hydrologic model used. The findings indicate that CB-aware DA with information content analysis offers an objective framework for improving DA performance for prediction of extremes and dynamically balancing the predictive skill of hydrologic models, quality and frequency of hydrologic observations, and scheduling of DA cycles for improving operational flood forecasting cost-effectively.
Improving Operational Flood Forecasting Using Data Assimilation
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Author : Oldřich Rakovec
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Improving Operational Flood Forecasting Using Data Assimilation written by Oldřich Rakovec and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
Ensemble Data Assimilation For Flood Forecasting In Operational Settings
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
Ensemble Data Assimilation For Flood Forecasting In Operational Settings written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with Computer simulation categories.
The National Water Center (NWC) started using the National Water Model (NWM) in 2016. The NWM delivers state-of-the-science hydrologic forecasts in the nation. The NWM aims at operationally forecasting streamflow in more than 2,000,000 river reaches while currently river forecasts are issued for 4,000. The NWM is a specific configuration of the community WRF-Hydro Land Surface Model (LSM) which has recently been introduced to the hydrologic community. The WRF-Hydro model, itself, uses another newly-developed LSM called Noah-MP as the core hydrologic model. In WRF-Hydro, Noah-MP results (such as soil moisture and runoff) are passed to routing modules. Riverine water level and discharge, among other variables, are outputted by WRF-Hydro. The NWM, WRF-Hydro, and Noah-MP have recently been developed and more research for operational accuracy is required on these models. The overarching goal in this dissertation is improving the ability of these three models in simulating and forecasting hydrological variables such as streamflow and soil moisture. Therefore, data assimilation (DA) is implemented on these models throughout this dissertation. The results show that short-range forecasts are significantly sensitive to the initial condition and its associated uncertainty. It is shown that quantification of this uncertainty can improve the forecasts by approximately 80%. The findings of this dissertation highlight the importance of DA to extract the information content from the observations and then incorporate this information into the land surface models. The findings could be beneficial for flood forecasting in research and operation.
Toward Hyper Resolution Hydrologic Data Assimilation Systems For Improved Predictions Of Hydroclimate Extremes
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Author : Peyman Abbaszadeh
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
Toward Hyper Resolution Hydrologic Data Assimilation Systems For Improved Predictions Of Hydroclimate Extremes written by Peyman Abbaszadeh and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with categories.
Over the past decades, tropical storms and hurricanes in the Southeast United States have become more frequent and intense, mainly due to the effects of climate change. They often produce torrential rains that may result in catastrophic floods depending on hydrologic, geomorphologic and orographic characteristics of the region. Although hydrological models are widely used to provide estimates of such floods, their predictions most often are not perfect as the models suffer either from inadequate conceptualization of underlying physics or non-uniqueness of model parameters or inaccurate initialization. Data Assimilation (DA) based on Particle Filtering (PF) has been recognized as an effective and reliable mean to integrate the hydrometeorological observations from in-situ stations and remotely sensed sensors into hydrological models for enhancing their prediction skills while accounting for the associated uncertainties. Although recent developments in DA theory and remote sensing technologies have made significant progress in enhancing the performance of the hydrologic models, their usefulness are subject to some inherent limitations that may result in inaccurate and imprecise model predictions, especially in the case of an extreme event such as flooding. This dissertation is an attempt to identify these limitations and address those by conducting four studies. The first tackles a fundamental problem associated with the utilization of remotely sensed observations in hydrologic data assimilation applications. The two and third are progressive studies that address two conceptual/theoretical problems of using particle filtering approach in hydrologic studies. As a result, the fourth study demonstrates the effectiveness and usefulness of the developments in all three studies in improving the hyper-resolution hydrologic model predictions over a region in the Southeast Texas where heavy rainfall from Hurricane Harvey caused deadly flooding.