Improving Intelligence Analysis
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Improving Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Stephen Marrin
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2012-08-21
Improving Intelligence Analysis written by Stephen Marrin and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-08-21 with Political Science categories.
This book on intelligence analysis written by intelligence expert Dr. Stephen Marrin argues that scholarship can play a valuable role in improving intelligence analysis. Improving intelligence analysis requires bridging the gap between scholarship and practice. Compared to the more established academic disciplines of political science and international relations, intelligence studies scholarship is generally quite relevant to practice. Yet a substantial gap exists nonetheless. Even though there are many intelligence analysts, very few of them are aware of the various writings on intelligence analysis which could help them improve their own processes and products. If the gap between scholarship and practice were to be bridged, practitioners would be able to access and exploit the literature in order to acquire new ways to think about, frame, conceptualize, and improve the analytic process and the resulting product. This volume contributes to the broader discussion regarding mechanisms and methods for improving intelligence analysis processes and products. It synthesizes these articles into a coherent whole, linking them together through common themes, and emphasizes the broader vision of intelligence analysis in the introduction and conclusion chapters. The book will be of great interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, US national security, US foreign policy, security studies and political science in general,as well as professional intelligence analysts and managers.
Improving Intelligence Analysis In Policing
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Author : Stuart Kirby
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2021-06-08
Improving Intelligence Analysis In Policing written by Stuart Kirby and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-06-08 with Fiction categories.
This book explains how improvements in intelligence analysis can bene!t policing. Written by experts with experience in police higher education and professional practice, this accessible text provides students with both practical knowledge and a critical understanding of the subject. The book is divided into three key parts: Part One outlines how the concept of intelligence was initially embraced and implemented by the police and provides a critique of intelligence sources. It examines the strategic use of intelligence and its procedural framework. It provides a summary of the role of the intelligence analyst, establishing the characteristics of effective practitioners. Part Two describes good practice and explains the practical tools and techniques that effective analysts use in the reduction and investigation of crime. Part Three examines more recent developments in intelligence analysis and looks to the future. This includes the move to multi-agency working, the advent of big data and the role of AI and machine learning. Filled with case studies and practical examples, this book is essential reading for all undergraduates and postgraduates taking courses in Professional Policing, and Criminal Justice more widely. It will also be of interest to existing practitioners in this field.
A Tradecraft Primer Structured Analytic Techniques For Improving Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Center for the Study of Intelligence
language : en
Publisher: Lulu.com
Release Date : 2012-05-28
A Tradecraft Primer Structured Analytic Techniques For Improving Intelligence Analysis written by Center for the Study of Intelligence and has been published by Lulu.com this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-05-28 with categories.
This primer highlights structured analytic techniques-some widely used in the private sector and academia, some unique to the intelligence profession. It is not a comprehensive overview of how intelligence officers conduct analysis. Rather, the primer highlights how structured analytic techniques can help one challenge judgments, identify mental mindsets, stimulate creativity, and manage uncertainty. In short, incorporating regular use of techniques such as these can enable one to structure thinking for wrestling with difficult questions. Originally published by the CIA in color. Previously available online only as an e-file.
Understanding And Improving Intelligence Analysis By Learning From Other Disciplines
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Author : Stephen Marrin
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Understanding And Improving Intelligence Analysis By Learning From Other Disciplines written by Stephen Marrin and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
A Tradecraft Primer
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
A Tradecraft Primer written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with Cognition categories.
This primer highlights structured analytic technique--some widely used in the private sector and academia, some unique to the intelligence profession. It is not a comprehensive overview of how intelligence officers conduct analysis. Rather, the primer highlights how structured analytic techniques can help one challenge judgments, identify mental mindsets, stimulate creativity, and manage uncertainty. In short, incorporating regular use of techniques such as these can enable one to structure thinking for wrestling with difficult questions.
A Tradecraft Primer Structured Analytic Techniques For Improving Intelligence Analysis
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Author : United Government
language : en
Publisher: CreateSpace
Release Date : 2012-08-01
A Tradecraft Primer Structured Analytic Techniques For Improving Intelligence Analysis written by United Government and has been published by CreateSpace this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-08-01 with categories.
This primer highlights structured analytic techniques-some widely used in the private sector and academia, some unique to the intelligence profession. It is not a comprehensive overview of how intelligence officers conduct analysis. Rather, the primer highlights how structured analytic techniques can help one challenge judgments, identify mental mindsets, stimulate creativity, and manage uncertainty. In short, incorporating regular use of techniques such as these can enable one to structure thinking for wrestling with difficult questions.
A Tradecraft Primer
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Author : U. S. Government
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009-03-02
A Tradecraft Primer written by U. S. Government and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-03-02 with categories.
Using the analytic techniques contained in this primer will assist analysts in dealing with the perennial problems of intelligence: the complexity of international developments, incomplete and ambiguous information, and the inherent limitations of the human mind. Understanding the intentions and capabilities of adversaries and other foreign actors is challenging, especially when either or both are concealed. Moreover, transnational threats today pose even greater complexity, in that they involve multiple actors-including nonstate entities-that can adapt and transform themselves faster than those who seek to monitor and contain them. Finally, globalization has increased the diversity of outcomes when complex, interactive systems such as financial flows, regional economies or the international system as a whole are in flux.The first hurdle for analysts is identifying the relevant and diagnostic information from the increasing volume of ambiguous and contradictory data that is acquired through open source and clandestine means. Analysts must also pierce the shroud of secrecy-and sometimes deception-that state and nonstate actors use to mislead. A systematic approach that considers a range of alternative explanations and outcomes offers one way to ensure that analysts do not dismiss potentially relevant hypotheses and supporting information resulting in missed opportunities to warn.Cognitive and perceptual biases in human perception and judgment are another important reason for analysts to consider alternatives. As Richards Heuer and others have argued, all individuals assimilate and evaluate information through the medium of "mental models" (sometimes also called "frames" or "mind-sets"). These are experience-based constructs of assumptions and expectations both about the world in general and more specific domains. These constructs strongly influence what information analysts will accept-that is, data that are in accordance with analysts' unconscious mental models are more likely to be perceived and remembered than information that is at odds with them. Mental models are critical to allowing individuals to process what otherwise would be an incomprehensible volume of information. Yet, they can cause analysts to overlook, reject, or forget important incoming or missing information that is not in accord with their assumptions and expectations. Seasoned analysts may be more susceptible to these mind-set problems as a result of their expertise and past success in using time-tested mental models. The key risks of mind-sets are that: analysts perceive what they expect to perceive; once formed, they are resistant to change; new information is assimilated, sometimes erroneously, into existing mental models; and conflicting information is often dismissed or ignored.
A Tradecraft Primer
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Author : Central Intelligence Agency
language : en
Publisher: CreateSpace
Release Date : 2009-03-15
A Tradecraft Primer written by Central Intelligence Agency and has been published by CreateSpace this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-03-15 with Reference categories.
This primer highlights structured analytic techniques-some widely used in the private sector and academia, some unique to the intelligence profession. It is not a comprehensive overview of how intelligence officers conduct analysis. Rather, the primer highlights how structured analytic techniques can help one challenge judgments, identify mental mindsets, stimulate creativity, and manage uncertainty. In short, incorporating regular use of techniques such as these can enable one to structure thinking for wrestling with difficult questions. Originally published by the CIA in color. Previously available online only as an e-file.
A Tradecraft Primer Structured Analytic Techniques For Improving Intelligence Analysis Cognitive And Perceptual Biases Reasoning Processes
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Author : Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016-12-11
A Tradecraft Primer Structured Analytic Techniques For Improving Intelligence Analysis Cognitive And Perceptual Biases Reasoning Processes written by Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-12-11 with categories.
This primer highlights structured analytic techniques--some widely used in the private sector and academia, some unique to the intelligence profession. It is not a comprehensive overview of how intelligence officers conduct analysis. Rather, the primer highlights how structured analytic techniques can help one challenge judgments, identify mental mindsets, stimulate creativity, and manage uncertainty. In short, incorporating regular use of techniques such as these can enable one to structure thinking for wrestling with difficult questions.Using the analytic techniques contained in this primer will assist analysts in dealing with the perennial problems of intelligence: the complexity of international developments, incomplete and ambiguous information, and the inherent limitations of the human mind. Understanding the intentions and capabilities of adversaries and other foreign actors is challenging, especially when either or both are concealed. Moreover, transnational threats today pose even greater complexity, in that they involve multiple actors--including nonstate entities--that can adapt and transform themselves faster than those who seek to monitor and contain them. Finally, globalization has increased the diversity of outcomes when complex, interactive systems such as financial flows, regional economies or the international system as a whole are in flux.The first hurdle for analysts is identifying the relevant and diagnostic information from the increasing volume of ambiguous and contradictory data that is acquired through open source and clandestine means. Analysts must also pierce the shroud of secrecy--and sometimes deception--that state and nonstate actors use to mislead. A systematic approach that considers a range of alternative explanations and outcomes offers one way to ensure that analysts do not dismiss potentially relevant hypotheses and supporting information resulting in missed opportunities to warn.Cognitive and perceptual biases in human perception and judgment are another important reason for analysts to consider alternatives. As Richards Heuer and others have argued, all individuals assimilate and evaluate information through the medium of "mental models" (sometimes also called "frames" or "mind-sets"). These are experience-based constructs of assumptions and expectations both about the world in general and more specific domains. These constructs strongly influence what information analysts will accept--that is, data that are in accordance with analysts' unconscious mental models are more likely to be perceived and remembered than information that is at odds with them.Mental models are critical to allowing individuals to process what otherwise would be an incomprehensible volume of information. Yet, they can cause analysts to overlook, reject, or forget important incoming or missing information that is not in accord with their assumptions and expectations. Seasoned analysts may be more susceptible to these mind-set problems as a result of their expertise and past success in using time-tested mental models. The key risks of mindsets are that: analysts perceive what they expect to perceive; once formed, they are resistant to change; new information is assimilated, sometimes erroneously, into existing mental models; and conflicting information is often dismissed or ignored. Intelligence analysts should be self-conscious about their reasoning processes. They should think about how they make judgments and reach conclusions, not just about the judgments and conclusions themselves.
Intelligence Analysis For Tomorrow
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2011-04-08
Intelligence Analysis For Tomorrow written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-04-08 with Social Science categories.
The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.