Inadvertent Escalation
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Inadvertent Escalation
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Author : Barry R. Posen
language : en
Publisher: Cornell University Press
Release Date : 2014-01-13
Inadvertent Escalation written by Barry R. Posen and has been published by Cornell University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-01-13 with Political Science categories.
In this sobering book, Barry R. Posen demonstrates how the interplay between conventional military operations and nuclear forces could, in conflicts among states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, inadvertently produce pressures for nuclear escalation. Knowledge of these hidden pressures, he believes, may help some future decision maker avoid catastrophe.Building a formidable argument that moves with cumulative force, he details the way in which escalation could occur not by mindless accident, or by deliberate preference for nuclear escalation, but rather as a natural accompaniment of land, naval, or air warfare at the conventional level. Posen bases his analysis on an empirical study of the east-west military competition in Europe during the 1980s, using a conceptual framework drawn from international relations theory, organization theory, and strategic theory.The lessons of his book, however, go well beyond the east-west competition. Since his observations are relevant to all military competitions between states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, his book speaks to some of the problems that attend the proliferation of nuclear weapons in longstanding regional conflicts. Optimism that small and medium nuclear powers can easily achieve "stable" nuclear balances is, he believes, unwarranted.
Dangerous Thresholds
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Author : Forrest E. Morgan
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2008-07-29
Dangerous Thresholds written by Forrest E. Morgan and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-07-29 with Political Science categories.
Escalation is a natural tendency in any form of human competition, and today's security environment demands that the United States be prepared for a host of escalatory threats. This analysis of escalation dynamics and approaches to escalation management draws on a range of historical examples from World War I to the struggle against global Jihad to inform escalation-related decisionmaking.
Back To The Brink
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Author : Tim Sweijs
language : en
Publisher: The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
Release Date : 2016-03-10
Back To The Brink written by Tim Sweijs and has been published by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-10 with categories.
Escalation And Deterrence In The Second Space Age
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Author : Todd Harrison
language : en
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
Release Date : 2017-11-01
Escalation And Deterrence In The Second Space Age written by Todd Harrison and has been published by Rowman & Littlefield this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-01 with Political Science categories.
On October 4, 1957, the Soviet Union launched Sputnik 1, the first human-made object to orbit the Earth. Six decades later, space-faring nations face a much different space environment, one that’s more diverse, disruptive, disordered, and dangerous. Today’s space domain presents a number of asymmetries that differ from other domains, creating a deterrence environment with unique policy implications. Escalation and Deterrence in the Second Space Age, a report from the CSIS Aerospace Security Project, discusses the evolution of space as a contested domain, the changing threats to U.S. space systems, deterrence theory and its applications to the space domain, and findings from a space crisis exercise administered by CSIS in late 2016.
Escalation In The War In Ukraine
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Author : Bryan Frederick
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2023-09-21
Escalation In The War In Ukraine written by Bryan Frederick and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-09-21 with History categories.
This report evaluates the potential for further escalation in the war in Ukraine, including possible escalation to Russian nuclear use, to better inform U.S. and allied decisions and the public debate.
Inadvertent Nuclear War
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Author : Hå. Wiberg
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2013-10-22
Inadvertent Nuclear War written by Hå. Wiberg and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-22 with History categories.
Since the dramatic end of the Pacific War in 1945 the threat of nuclear war has exercised the minds of many. Initial fears concerned the risk that a political crisis between the Superpowers would escalate through miltary confrontation into a 'calculated' nuclear war. Another scenario pictured a new Hitler commanding a nuclear-capable state prepared to use such weapons 'irrationally', possibly sparking a 'catalytic' nuclear war between the major Powers. More recently attention has shifted towards the risk of the 'accidental' release of nuclear weapons. While the risk of intentional conflict between the major Powers has lessened, the arsenals have only been marginally reduced, leaving the possibility of accidental release as perhaps the most threatening case. Inadvertent Nuclear War presents the risk in terms of the reliability and instability of the human and technical systems governing release, with contributions ranging from the engineering of computer software to the psychology of the chain of command. As Dr Wiberg states in his introduction, "No known technical construction, human being or social organization is absolutely failsafe."
Restraining Air Power
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Author : Robert C. Owen
language : en
Publisher: University Press of Kentucky
Release Date : 2022-11-29
Restraining Air Power written by Robert C. Owen and has been published by University Press of Kentucky this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-11-29 with History categories.
Is it possible for two combatants who possess equally strong air forces to conduct limited warfare by restraining air operations? In Restraining Air Power, Robert C. Owen and contributing authors aim to answer this question by providing theoretical and empirical assessments of restrained air warfare through five historical case studies since 1945. Through an objective analysis of the past, this collection evaluates the principles of escalation and escalation management in conventional warfare scenarios to better understand when, why, and how peer opponents in past conflicts have expanded or restrained air operations. The surge in cyber warfare, the development of artificially intelligent weaponry, and the founding of the United States Space Force in 2019 mean that analysts and military planners must be prepared to think about escalation management and peer conflict in increasingly complicated and arduous ways. This comprehensive study provides readers with refined theoretical visions of the possibilities and challenges of managing escalation as a powerful mode of warfare between opponents who believe they must choose between sacrificing their own national interests or risking escalated destruction of their economies, military forces, and governing authority. The analysis within the pages of this volume updates our understanding of air warfare within a world of unprecedented military complexity and, as such, will hold immense value for specialists in advanced military studies as well as those studying international relations and history.
The Russian Understanding Of War
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Author : Oscar Jonsson
language : en
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
Release Date : 2019-11-01
The Russian Understanding Of War written by Oscar Jonsson and has been published by Georgetown University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-11-01 with Political Science categories.
This book analyzes the evolution of Russian military thought and how Russia's current thinking about war is reflected in recent crises. While other books describe current Russian practice, Oscar Jonsson provides the long view to show how Russian military strategic thinking has developed from the Bolshevik Revolution to the present. He closely examines Russian primary sources including security doctrines and the writings and statements of Russian military theorists and political elites. What Jonsson reveals is that Russia's conception of the very nature of war is now changing, as Russian elites see information warfare and political subversion as the most important ways to conduct contemporary war. Since information warfare and political subversion are below the traditional threshold of armed violence, this has blurred the boundaries between war and peace. Jonsson also finds that Russian leaders have, particularly since 2011/12, considered themselves to be at war with the United States and its allies, albeit with non-violent means. This book provides much needed context and analysis to be able to understand recent Russian interventions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, how to deter Russia on the eastern borders of NATO, and how the West must also learn to avoid inadvertent escalation.
Escalation In The War In Ukraine
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Author : Bryan Frederick
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2023-09-21
Escalation In The War In Ukraine written by Bryan Frederick and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-09-21 with History categories.
This report evaluates the potential for further escalation in the conflict in Ukraine, including the prospects for escalation to Russian nuclear use. The report is intended to inform U.S. and NATO policymakers as they consider how to avoid further escalation of the conflict while assisting Ukraine in its efforts to defeat the Russian invasion and to better inform the public debate around these issues.
Confronting Emergent Nuclear Armed Regional Adversaries
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Author : Forrest E. Morgan
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Confronting Emergent Nuclear Armed Regional Adversaries written by Forrest E. Morgan and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with Conflict management categories.
"Risks are increasing that the United States will find itself in confrontations with nuclear-armed regional adversaries--that is, hostile states with small nuclear arsenals. This research seeks to help the U.S. Air Force understand and prepare for such confrontations. The authors explore circumstances in which the United States might be able to neutralize a regional opponent's nuclear capabilities, and describe how and in what circumstances the United States can manage escalation while defeating nuclear-armed opponents in conventional conflict. The analysis finds that there is probably no case in which U.S. forces could neutralize an opponent's nuclear capabilities with a high enough probability of success that U.S. leaders would let them attempt it. However, U.S. forces should be able to manage escalation in some conventional conflicts, as long as the United States does not threaten the survival of the enemy regime or its nuclear deterrent forces. U.S. leaders must deter the adversary from escalating above critical U.S. thresholds and manage U.S. forces to avoid inadvertent and accidental escalation. The authors recommend that the Air Force continue research and development on methods and capabilities to find, fix, track, target, and assess enemy nuclear weapons capabilities; continue research and development on ballistic and cruise missile defenses; and conduct research on how to rebalance the force to better enable posturing airpower to conduct conventional strike operations from afar, in order to defeat a nuclear-armed regional adversary's conventional forces while operating from bases beyond the range of its conventional and nuclear strike capabilities"--Publisher's description.