Informality Labor Market Dynamics And Business Cycles In North Africa
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Informality Labor Market Dynamics And Business Cycles In North Africa
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Author : Olivier Bizimana
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-09-08
Informality Labor Market Dynamics And Business Cycles In North Africa written by Olivier Bizimana and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-09-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Employment informality is widespread across North Africa. This paper aims to shed light on the role played by the informal sector in labor market adjustments over the business cycle. It finds that the response of labor markets to output fluctuations is more muted in countries with higher informality levels, like the North African economies. The analysis also confirms that informal employment is countercyclical and acts as a buffer during economic downturns in countries with relatively higher informality. However, contrary to what took place in past recessions, informal employment contracted sharply during the 2020 pandemic recession in high informality economies, suggesting that it did not play its traditional countercyclical role. By contrast, employment informality tends to fall modestly or increase during economic upturns, including the post-pandemic recovery. This finding presages the persistence of a large informal sector in the post-covid era in medium- and high-informality countries.
Informality Development And The Business Cycle In North Africa
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Author : Mr. Roberto Cardarelli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-06-09
Informality Development And The Business Cycle In North Africa written by Mr. Roberto Cardarelli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-06-09 with Business & Economics categories.
North African economies are characterized by a significant share of informal activity and employment. About two-thirds of workers in North Africa operate without any formal arrangement and social protection, and about 30 percent of GDP is estimated to be produced by informal workers and firms. This paper finds that while a few key structural characteristics could explain “normal” informality in North Africa, policy distortions explain a large share of excess informality. Among the structural factors that can lead to high informality, the relatively lower level of human capital and younger population help explain the high informality in the region, as low-skilled and young people generally find it more difficult to operate in the formal sector. At the same time, gaps in a set of policy indicators also explain the relatively high informality in North Africa. In particular, this paper finds that gaps in the quality of governance explain about half of the excess informality experienced in North Africa compared with advanced economies. In this context, the expansion of the informal sector in Algeria and Tunisia from the mid-2000s partially reflects the deterioration in a few indicators of their governance and regulatory frameworks. In contrast, the decline in informality observed in Egypt, Mauritania, and Morocco over this period also reflects improved business regulations, governance, and tax systems, in addition to continued progress in economic development. While informality has traditionally buffered regional labor markets against the impact of recessions, the COVID-19 crisis has been different. North African economies have generally exhibited relatively stable unemployment rates, including during recessions, largely owing to their high levels of informality. However, informal employment has fallen significantly in North Africa during the pandemic, as lockdown measures have particularly affected high-informality service sectors. As the pandemic subsides and the lockdown measures are removed, the recovery of regional labor markets could exhibit a stronger-than-usual rebound of informal employment. Ensuring an inclusive recovery from the pandemic would call for renewed efforts to construct more modern (digitalized), more efficient, and fairer systems of social protection, building on the progress achieved in the region during the pandemic in extending safety nets to informal workers.
The Long Shadow Of Informality
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Author : Franziska Ohnsorge
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2022-02-09
The Long Shadow Of Informality written by Franziska Ohnsorge and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-02-09 with Business & Economics categories.
A large percentage of workers and firms operate in the informal economy, outside the line of sight of governments in emerging market and developing economies. This may hold back the recovery in these economies from the deep recessions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic--unless governments adopt a broad set of policies to address the challenges of widespread informality. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the extent of informality and its implications for a durable economic recovery and for long-term development. It finds that pervasive informality is associated with significantly weaker economic outcomes--including lower government resources to combat recessions, lower per capita incomes, greater poverty, less financial development, and weaker investment and productivity.
The Global Informal Workforce
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-07-23
The Global Informal Workforce written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-07-23 with Business & Economics categories.
The Global Informal Workforce is a fresh look at the informal economy around the world and its impact on the macroeconomy. The book covers interactions between the informal economy, labor and product markets, gender equality, fiscal institutions and outcomes, social protection, and financial inclusion. Informality is a widespread and persistent phenomenon that affects how fast economies can grow, develop, and provide decent economic opportunities for their populations. The COVID-19 pandemic has helped to uncover the vulnerabilities of the informal workforce.
Global Economic Prospects January 2019
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Author : World Bank Group
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2019-02-12
Global Economic Prospects January 2019 written by World Bank Group and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-02-12 with Business & Economics categories.
The outlook for the global economy has darkened. Global financing conditions have tightened, industrial production has moderated, trade tensions have intensified, and some large emerging market and developing economies have experienced significant financial market stress. Faced with these headwinds, the recovery in emerging market and developing economies has lost momentum. Downside risks have become more acute and include the possibility of disorderly financial market movements and an escalation of trade disputes. Debt vulnerabilities in emerging market and developing economies, particularly low-income countries, have increased. More frequent severe weather events would raise the possibility of large swings in international food prices, which could deepen poverty. In this difficult environment, it is of paramount importance for emerging market and developing economies to rebuild policy buffers while laying a stronger foundation for future growth by boosting human capital, promoting trade integration, and addressing the challenges associated with informality,
The Informal Economy In Sub Saharan Africa
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Author : Leandro Medina
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-07-10
The Informal Economy In Sub Saharan Africa written by Leandro Medina and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-07-10 with Business & Economics categories.
The multiple indicator-multiple cause (MIMIC) method is a well-established tool for measuring informal economic activity. However, it has been criticized because GDP is used both as a cause and indicator variable. To address this issue, this paper applies for the first time the light intensity approach (instead of GDP). It also uses the Predictive Mean Matching (PMM) method to estimate the size of the informal economy for Sub-Saharan African countries over 24 years. Results suggest that informal economy in Sub-Saharan Africa remains among the largest in the world, although this share has been very gradually declining. It also finds significant heterogeneity, with informality ranging from a low of 20 to 25 percent in Mauritius, South Africa and Namibia to a high of 50 to 65 percent in Benin, Tanzania and Nigeria.
Hysteresis And Business Cycles
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Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-05-29
Hysteresis And Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date :
written by and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with categories.
Informality
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Author : Guillermo Perry
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2007
Informality written by Guillermo Perry and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Business & Economics categories.
Analyzes informality in Latin America, exploring root causes and reasons for and implications of its growth. This book uses two distinct but complementary lenses. It concludes that reducing informality levels and overcoming the "culture of informality" will require actions to increase aggregate productivity in the economy.
The Labor Market And Economic Adjustment
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Author : Pierre-Richard Agénor
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1995-11-01
The Labor Market And Economic Adjustment written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1995-11-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper examines the role of the labor market in the transmission process of adjustment policies in developing countries. It begins by reviewing the recent evidence regarding the functioning of these markets. It then studies the implications of wage inertia, nominal contracts, labor market segmentation, and impediments to labor mobility for stabilization policies. The effect of labor market reforms on economic flexibility and the channels through which labor market imperfections alter the effects of structural adjustment measures are discussed next. The last part of the paper identifies a variety of issues that may require further investigation, such as the link between changes in relative wages and the distributional effects of adjustment policies.