Information Acquisition And Decisions Under Risk And Ambiguity
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Information Acquisition And Decisions Under Risk And Ambiguity
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Author : Ralf Bergheim
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Information Acquisition And Decisions Under Risk And Ambiguity written by Ralf Bergheim and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
Intuition And Reasoning In Choosing Ambiguous And Risky Lotteries
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Author : Ralf Bergheim
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Intuition And Reasoning In Choosing Ambiguous And Risky Lotteries written by Ralf Bergheim and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
This paper focuses on information acquisition and individual decision making in ambiguous situations and presents a novel experimental design which may help to tackle open questions from a fresh perspective. Instead of giving subjects the choice between risky and ambiguous Ellsberg urns, we let them choose between a safe option and a risky lottery, whose risk is a priori unknown to subjects. By acquiring information about the probability distribution of the lottery's payoffs, subjects can reduce or even eliminate the ambiguity and turn the decision situation into one of risk. Under the assumption that an ambiguity averse subject should reduce ambiguity within a decision process we predicted that these subjects would request more information. Moreover, we investigate whether the relation between attitudes towards risk and ambiguity is linked to intuitive and deliberate thinking. Based on a detailed analysis of subjects' information acquisition and decision processes we do not find that those subjects showing ambiguity aversion in an urn experiment based on Halevy (2007) significantly reduce the ambiguity more than others. More intuitive subjects acquire less information and are more likely to avoid the risky lottery. Intuition seems to be negatively correlated with risk aversion, but not with ambiguity aversion. Moreover, we find a positive correlation between risk and ambiguity aversion.
Understanding The Role Of Risk And Uncertainty In Sequential Decision Making During Information Acquisition
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Author : Michael Thomas Braun
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Understanding The Role Of Risk And Uncertainty In Sequential Decision Making During Information Acquisition written by Michael Thomas Braun and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with Choice (Psychology) categories.
When employees are faced with novel situations it is often necessary for them to acquire new information. Unreliability of information sources and uncertainty regarding information usefulness make the information acquisition process analogous to a sequence of risky decisions. Prospect Theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979) and its generalizations are currently the dominant approach to the study of risky decision making in psychology and economics due to their ability to accurately describe the decision biases that are frequently document in the presence of risk and uncertainty. Using a lab-based computer simulation, CRONUS SOLO, common biases from the Prospect Theory literature are examined for sequential risky decision making during information acquisition. Additionally, common relationships between individual differences and sequential risky decision making as well as the effect of learning and feedback on risky decision making are explored. The biases present during the information acquisition process are not fully explained by Prospect Theory and its generalizations. Overall, individuals became more efficient and optimal decision makers over time. The effects of information reliability, information framing, and specific individual differences are presented. Finally, potential explanations for the current findings as well as implications for training are discussed. -- Abstract.
Affective Decision Making Under Uncertainty
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Author : Donald J. Brown
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-12-18
Affective Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Donald J. Brown and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-12-18 with Business & Economics categories.
This book is an exploration of the ubiquity of ambiguity in decision-making under uncertainty. It presents various essays on behavioral economics and behavioral finance that draw on the theory of Black Swans (Taleb 2010), which argues for a distinction between unprecedented events in our past and unpredictable events in our future. The defining property of Black Swan random events is that they are unpredictable, i.e., highly unlikely random events. In this text, Mandelbrot’s (1972) operational definition of risky random unpredictable events is extended to Black Swan assets – assets for which the cumulative probability distribution or conditional probability distribution of random future asset returns is a power distribution. Ambiguous assets are assets for which the uncertainties of future returns are not risks. Consequently, there are two disjoint classes of Black Swan assets: Risky Black Swan assets and Ambiguous Black Swan assets, a new class of ambiguous assets with unpredictable random future outcomes. The text is divided into two parts, the first of which focuses on affective moods, introduces affective utility functions and discusses the ambiguity of Black Swans. The second part, which shifts the spotlight to affective equilibrium in asset markets, features chapters on affective portfolio analysis and Walrasian and Gorman Polar Form Equilibrium Inequalities. In order to gain the most from the book, readers should have completed the standard introductory graduate courses on microeconomics, behavioral finance, and convex optimization. The book is intended for advanced undergraduates, graduate students and post docs specializing in economic theory, experimental economics, finance, mathematics, computer science or data analysis.
Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty
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Author : J. Geweke
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty written by J. Geweke and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
As desired, the infonnation demand correspondence is single valued at equilibrium prices. Hence no planner is needed to assign infonnation allocations to individuals. Proposition 4. For any given infonnation price system p E . P (F *), almost every a E A demands a unique combined infonnation structure (although traders may be indifferent among partial infonnation sales from different information allocations, etc. ). In particular, the aggregate excess demand correspondence for net combined infonnation trades is a continuous function. Proof Uniqueness fails only if an agent can obtain the same expected utility from two or more net combined infonnation allocations. If this happens, appropriate slight perturbations of personal probability vectors destroy the equality unless the utility functions and wealth allocations were independent across states. Yet, when utilities and wealths don't depend on states in S, no infonnation to distinguish the states is desired, so that the demand for such infonnation structures must equal zero. To show the second claim, recall that if the correspondence is single valued for almost every agent, then its integral is also single valued. Finally, note that an upper hemicontinuous (by Proposition 2) correspondence which is single valued everywhere is, in fact, a continuous function. [] REFERENCES Allen, Beth (1986a). "The Demand for (Differentiated) Infonnation"; Review of Economic Studies. 53. (311-323). Allen, Beth (1986b). "General Equilibrium with Infonnation Sales"; Theory and Decision. 21. (1-33). Allen, Beth (1990). "Infonnation as an Economic Commodity"; American Economic Review. 80. (268-273).
Handbook Of The Economics Of Risk And Uncertainty
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Author : Mark Machina
language : en
Publisher: Newnes
Release Date : 2013-11-14
Handbook Of The Economics Of Risk And Uncertainty written by Mark Machina and has been published by Newnes this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-14 with Business & Economics categories.
The need to understand the theories and applications of economic and finance risk has been clear to everyone since the financial crisis, and this collection of original essays proffers broad, high-level explanations of risk and uncertainty. The economics of risk and uncertainty is unlike most branches of economics in spanning from the individual decision-maker to the market (and indeed, social decisions), and ranging from purely theoretical analysis through individual experimentation, empirical analysis, and applied and policy decisions. It also has close and sometimes conflicting relationships with theoretical and applied statistics, and psychology. The aim of this volume is to provide an overview of diverse aspects of this field, ranging from classical and foundational work through current developments. Presents coherent summaries of risk and uncertainty that inform major areas in economics and finance Divides coverage between theoretical, empirical, and experimental findings Makes the economics of risk and uncertainty accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Risk Ambiguity And Decision
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Author : Daniel Ellsberg
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2001
Risk Ambiguity And Decision written by Daniel Ellsberg and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with Business & Economics categories.
First Published in 2001. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.
Advances In Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty
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Author : Mohammed Abdellaoui
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2008-08-29
Advances In Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty written by Mohammed Abdellaoui and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-08-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.
Complexity In Entrepreneurship Innovation And Technology Research
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Author : Elisabeth S.C. Berger
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-02-25
Complexity In Entrepreneurship Innovation And Technology Research written by Elisabeth S.C. Berger and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-02-25 with Business & Economics categories.
This volume discusses the challenge of dealing with complexity in entrepreneurship, innovation and technology research. Businesses as well as entire economies are increasingly being confronted by widespread complex systems. Fields such as entrepreneurship and innovation cannot ignore this reality, especially with their inherent links to diverse research fields and interdisciplinary methods. However, most methods that allow more detailed analyses of complex problems are either neglected in mainstream research or are, at best, still emerging. Against this backdrop, this book provides a forum for the discussion of emergent and neglected methods in the context of complexity in entrepreneurship, innovation and technology research, and also acts as an inspiration for academics across related disciplines to engage more in complexity research.
Comparing Decisions Under Compound Risk And Ambiguity The Importance Of Cognitive Skills
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Author : Sasha Prokosheva
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Comparing Decisions Under Compound Risk And Ambiguity The Importance Of Cognitive Skills written by Sasha Prokosheva and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.