Information Rigidity In Growth Forecasts
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Information Rigidity In Growth Forecasts
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Author : Ms.Natalia T. Tamirisa
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-06-01
Information Rigidity In Growth Forecasts written by Ms.Natalia T. Tamirisa and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-06-01 with Business & Economics categories.
We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of recessions and crises; (ii) if rigidities differ across countries, particularly between advanced countries and emerging markets; and (iii) how quickly forecasters incorporate news about growth in other countries into their growth forecasts, with a focus on how advanced countries‘ growth forecasts incorporate news about emerging market growth and vice versa.
Information Rigidity And The Expectations Formation Process
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Author : Mr.Olivier Coibion
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-12-20
Information Rigidity And The Expectations Formation Process written by Mr.Olivier Coibion and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-20 with Business & Economics categories.
We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the and the underlying degree of information rigidity. Applying this approach to U.S. and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with the presence of information rigidities. These results therefore provide a set of stylized facts which can be used to calibrate imperfect information models. Finally, we document evidence of state-dependence in the expectations formation process.
Information Rigidities In Economic Growth Forecasts
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Author : Jonas Dovern
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-02-27
Information Rigidities In Economic Growth Forecasts written by Jonas Dovern and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-02-27 with Business & Economics categories.
We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002) for describing the dynamics of professional growth forecasts. Instead, the empirical evidence is more in line with implications of "noisy" information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003). Second, we find that information rigidities are more pronounced in emerging economies than advanced economies. Third, there is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing. It is less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution.
Information Rigidities
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Author : Jonas Dovern
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-02-12
Information Rigidities written by Jonas Dovern and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-02-12 with Business & Economics categories.
We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts. Individual level forecasts are updated quite frequently, a behavior more in line “noisy” information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003) than with the assumptions of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002). While there are cross-country variations in information rigidity, there is no systematic difference between advanced and emerging economies.
Information Rigidity And The Expectations Formation Process A Simple Framework And New Facts
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Information Rigidity And The Expectations Formation Process A Simple Framework And New Facts written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with categories.
How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions
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Author : Zidong An
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-03-05
How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions written by Zidong An and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-03-05 with Business & Economics categories.
We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast errors. Our second finding is that forecasts of the private sector and the official sector are virtually identical; thus, both are equally good at missing recessions. Strong booms are also missed, providing suggestive evidence for Nordhaus’ (1987) view that behavioral factors—the reluctance to absorb either good or bad news—play a role in the evolution of forecasts.
Macroeconomic Fluctuations And Policies
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Author : Edouard Challe
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2023-09-19
Macroeconomic Fluctuations And Policies written by Edouard Challe and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-09-19 with Business & Economics categories.
The basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies, applied to concrete issues and presented within an integrated New Keynesian framework. This textbook presents the basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies and applies them to contemporary issues. It employs a unified New Keynesian framework for understanding business cycles, major crises, and macroeconomic policies, introducing students to the approach most often used in academic macroeconomic analysis and by central banks and international institutions. The book addresses such topics as how recessions and crises spread; what instruments central banks and governments have to stimulate activity when private demand is weak; and what “unconventional” macroeconomic policies might work when conventional monetary policy loses its effectiveness (as has happened in many countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession.). The text introduces the foundations of modern business cycle theory through the notions of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and then applies the theory to the study of regular business-cycle fluctuations in output, inflation, and employment. It considers conventional monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing the business cycle, and examines unconventional macroeconomic policies, including forward guidance and quantitative easing, in situations of “liquidity trap”—deep crises in which conventional policies are either ineffective or have very different effects than in normal time. This book is the first to use the New Keynesian framework at the advanced undergraduate level, connecting undergraduate learning not only with the more advanced tools taught at the graduate level but also with the large body of policy-oriented research in academic journals. End-of-chapter problems help students master the materials presented.
Nber Macroeconomics Annual 2003
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Author : Mark Gertler
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2004
Nber Macroeconomics Annual 2003 written by Mark Gertler and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Business & Economics categories.
The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.
Hysteresis And Business Cycles
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Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-05-29
Hysteresis And Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Inflation Expectations
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Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2009-12-16
Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-12-16 with Business & Economics categories.
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.