Investigating The Relationship Between Gold And Silver Prices
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Investigating The Relationship Between Gold And Silver Prices
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Author : Alvaro Escribano
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1995
Investigating The Relationship Between Gold And Silver Prices written by Alvaro Escribano and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1995 with Precious metals categories.
Explaining The Gold Price After The Bretton Woods Agreement Using Independent Variables An Arima Model Approach
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Author : Stefan Heini
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2015-08-14
Explaining The Gold Price After The Bretton Woods Agreement Using Independent Variables An Arima Model Approach written by Stefan Heini and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-08-14 with Business & Economics categories.
Master's Thesis from the year 2014 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1.7, University of Leicester (Center of Management), language: English, abstract: To date, nobody has formulated a comprehensive theorem to determine gold valuation or precious metal prices. Until fairly recently, Eugene Fama’s Efficient Market Hypothesis was the predominant paradigm explaining asset markets but today it is widely acknowledged that markets can be irrational and investors are prone to act irrationally. When trying to explain gold market anomalies, behavioural science approaches can be useful. Phenomena such as herding (‘group think’), ‘safe value bias’ and investors’ ‘excessive extrapolation’ can help explain positive price performance over a certain time. In this dissertation, the author investigates the applicability of a multivariate ARIMA (auto-regressive, integrated, moving average) model to help explain gold price movements from 1973 to 2011. This model uses the gold price and independent variables such as inflation, real interest rates, silver prices, the US dollar money supply (M2), oil prices, the MSCI World index and the S&P 500 as these are linked to gold and/or highly correlated with the gold price. The evaluation criteria were defined as R-squared, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and BIC. The model was calculated over so-called ‘normal times’ and times of crises (one political, one financial). The researcher used SPSS’ Expert Modeler to find the best-fitting ARIMA model and to identify the independent variables significantly contributing to the fit of the model. Remarkably, a multivariate ARIMA model using independent variables explained almost twice as much of the variability of the gold price as a univariate ARIMA model using only the gold price. Also, throughout the complete period and during normal times the model explained a much higher percentage of the variability of the gold price than during crises and comparably more of the independent variables contributed significantly to the fit of the model (5 vs. 2). This can be explained by investors’ tendencies to buy gold to preserve their assets (“safe value”), to follow the crowd (“herding”) and to extrapolate past price chart developments. The results show that in an attempt to discern the cause of gold price movements, a multivariate ARIMA model outperforms a univariate ARIMA model significantly. The results of the study furthermore indicate researchers evaluating different methods to fit a time series should consider a multivariate ARIMA model, especially if the independent variables are highly correlated with the dependent variable.
The Silver Bull Market
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Author : Shayne McGuire
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2013-03-27
The Silver Bull Market written by Shayne McGuire and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-27 with Business & Economics categories.
From one of the world’s most respected authorities on precious metals investment—a thoroughly researched volume on the investment prospects for silver, the other gold. Gold, outperforming stocks for over a decade, has finally been recognized as a serious asset class to be included in any solid, diversified investment portfolio. Considering present inflationary concerns related to accelerating fiscal crises in Europe, the United States and likely Japan in the years ahead, gold is widely held in the largest professionally-managed portfolios in the world. But silver, which has been moving in the same direction as its sister metal for forty years—and actually outperforming gold over the last ten years—has yet to be taken seriously in the investment world. Widely perceived as an erratic, unpredictable metal best left to speculators, silver has been disdained primarily for its volatility. Taking the long view, as well as a hard look at silver’s investment demerits, Shayne McGuire examines current global financial conditions in order to provide a full and frank assessment of present and future opportunities for investors who may be considering buying silver. Silver is being rediscovered as a viable alternative to gold, and demand for the metal as an investment vehicle has risen sharply over the past few years Though more volatile than gold, silver is highly correlated with the more expensive metal and should continue moving in the same direction (as it has for thousands of years) Widely considered a precious metals expert within the institutional investor community and author of Hard Money: Taking Gold to a Higher Investment Level, McGuire manages a portfolio with over $850 million in precious metals investments While the investment literature is overflowing with books on how to invest in gold, this is the first serious book in decades offering expert insights, advice and guidance on investing in silver
Forecasting Economic Time Series
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Author : C. W. J. Granger
language : en
Publisher: Academic Press
Release Date : 2014-05-10
Forecasting Economic Time Series written by C. W. J. Granger and has been published by Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-05-10 with Business & Economics categories.
Economic Theory, Econometrics, and Mathematical Economics, Second Edition: Forecasting Economic Time Series presents the developments in time series analysis and forecasting theory and practice. This book discusses the application of time series procedures in mainstream economic theory and econometric model building. Organized into 10 chapters, this edition begins with an overview of the problem of dealing with time series possessing a deterministic seasonal component. This text then provides a description of time series in terms of models known as the time-domain approach. Other chapters consider an alternative approach, known as spectral or frequency-domain analysis, that often provides useful insights into the properties of a series. This book discusses as well a unified approach to the fitting of linear models to a given time series. The final chapter deals with the main advantage of having a Gaussian series wherein the optimal single series, least-squares forecast will be a linear forecast. This book is a valuable resource for economists.
Commodities
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Author : M. A. H. Dempster
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2015-11-05
Commodities written by M. A. H. Dempster and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-05 with Business & Economics categories.
Since a major source of income for many countries comes from exporting commodities, price discovery and information transmission between commodity futures markets are key issues for continued economic development. This book covers the fundamental theory of and derivatives pricing for major commodity markets as well as the interaction between commodity prices, the real economy, and other financial markets. After an extensive theoretical and practical introduction, the book is divided into four parts: Oil Products – considers the structural changes in the demand and supply for hedging services that are increasingly determining the price of oil Other Commodities – examines markets related to agricultural commodities, including natural gas, wine, soybeans, corn, gold, silver, copper, and other metals Commodity Prices and Financial Markets – investigates the contemporary aspects of the financialization of commodities, including stocks, bonds, futures, currency markets, index products, and exchange traded funds Electricity Markets – supplies an overview of the current and future modelling of electricity markets With contributions from well-known academics and practitioners, this volume includes coverage of the fundamental theory of futures/forwards and derivatives pricing for major commodity markets. The contributions to Sections I and II of this volume, which treat storable or agricultural commodities, take speculation into account through a consideration of markets over time being either in backwardation or contango. Up-to-date considerations of both trading and investment are included in Sections I, II, and III. The book also reviews the effects of urbanization and the expanding middle-class population on commodities.
Gold Routledge Revivals
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Author : Rae Weston
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-05-13
Gold Routledge Revivals written by Rae Weston and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-05-13 with Business & Economics categories.
First published in 1983, this book provides a comprehensive view of gold and gold trading in its many facets, and identifies those sources of information that are important for an understanding of the world’s gold markets. The author looks first at gold’s changing role since 1960; in particular, the change from the fixed price to the present free market determination of price. The different forms the demand for gold takes – bullion, paper or in fabricated forms such as jewellery – are explained in detail. This is followed by an analysis of the supply side – new gold production and the circulation of existing old gold. The survey concludes with an assessment of the gold market and of gold prices now and in the future.
Gold Value And Gold Prices From 1971 2021
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Author : Gary Christenson
language : en
Publisher: CreateSpace
Release Date : 2014-10-29
Gold Value And Gold Prices From 1971 2021 written by Gary Christenson and has been published by CreateSpace this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-10-29 with Business & Economics categories.
What is an appropriate exchange rate for gold in 2015 when priced in US dollars? What will be the appropriate exchange rate when priced in Euros in 2017?We don't know. Worse, a number of highly intelligent and recognized experts can't even agree whether gold will be priced higher or lower in three years.Given that major disagreement among experts, who and what should an investor believe regarding the exchange of steadily devaluing dollars, euros, pounds and yen for the purchase of gold?My solution was to create an empirical model based on several macro-economic variables, not including the price of gold. The goal of the model was to accurately replicate the smoothed price of gold as calculated with a twice smoothed moving average of monthly closing prices since 1971.The model performed well – specifically it had a 0.98 statistical correlation with the actual smoothed market price of gold in US dollars between 1971 and 2013. The resulting graph of calculated gold prices rose from about $30 in 1971 to about $500 in 1980 - 84, down to under $300 in 1999 - 2001, and then up to about $1,500 in 2013.Currently the model shows that gold, selling for about $1,300, is undervalued and therefore likely to move higher in coming years.But how much higher? The book discusses reasonable projections based on the estimated change of the macro-economic inputs to the model and then calculates reasonable or “fair” values for gold through the year 2021.Of course the price of gold will rise above and fall below the calculated “fair” value during the next several years, but estimating the “fair” value will help people evaluate whether or not the market price of gold is over or under valued at any particular time.Examples: The model indicated that the market price of gold at its peak in August 2011 was 30% higher than the “fair” price. Similarly, the market price of gold in December 2013 was 26% below its “fair” price. This “fair” value information would have been particularly valuable to those who were considering purchases of gold in August 2011 or selling their gold in December 2013.The model accurately replicated, on average, the smoothed price of gold for over 40 years. Furthermore the model was robust. Since 1971 the world has experienced stock market booms and busts, bond market bull and bear markets, “shock and awe,” occasional peace, the inflationary 1970s, the stock market booms of the 1990s, the devastation of 9-11 and subsequent wars, a housing crash, and a global financial crash in 2008. The model created accurate “fair” value estimates for the price of gold during all those market extremes.The book is divided into three parts.Part one explores the need for an empirical model, examines monthly gold prices since 1971, smoothed annual gold prices, the macro-economic variables used in the model, the actual formula that replicates smoothed gold prices, and future gold prices as projected by the model. It also discusses gold cycles, various ratios, and shows how those cycles and ratios support the price projections indicated by the model. Part two addresses the larger economic environment including counter-party risk, The Fed, interest rates, QE, inflation, and central bank gold sales. Part three encourages you to act in accordance with your individual financial circumstances and risk tolerance. It offers suggestions on how to purchase gold, where to store gold, when to buy and sell, and what a bubble in the gold market could indicate for prices. The model has a 40+ year record of calculating a reasonable and “fair” price for gold. There is no guarantee that the model will continue to be accurate in the future, but the model is certainly more useful and objective than the opinions of many supposed experts and biased analysts who materially disagree on future expectations for gold prices.
Handbook Of Recent Advances In Commodity And Financial Modeling
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Author : Giorgio Consigli
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-09-30
Handbook Of Recent Advances In Commodity And Financial Modeling written by Giorgio Consigli and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-09-30 with Business & Economics categories.
This handbook includes contributions related to optimization, pricing and valuation problems, risk modeling and decision making problems arising in global financial and commodity markets from the perspective of Operations Research and Management Science. The book is structured in three parts, emphasizing common methodological approaches arising in the areas of interest: - Part I: Optimization techniques - Part II: Pricing and Valuation - Part III: Risk Modeling The book presents to a wide community of Academics and Practitioners a selection of theoretical and applied contributions on topics that have recently attracted increasing interest in commodity and financial markets. Within a structure based on the three parts, it presents recent state-of-the-art and original works related to: - The adoption of multi-criteria and dynamic optimization approaches in financial and insurance markets in presence of market stress and growing systemic risk; - Decision paradigms, based on behavioral finance or factor-based, or more classical stochastic optimization techniques, applied to portfolio selection problems including new asset classes such as alternative investments; - Risk measurement methodologies, including model risk assessment, recently applied to energy spot and future markets and new risk measures recently proposed to evaluate risk-reward trade-offs in global financial and commodity markets; and derivatives portfolio hedging and pricing methods recently put forward in the financial community in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.
First Third Final Report Of The Royal Commission Appointed To Inquire Into The Recent Changes In The Relative Values Of The Precious Metals
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Author : Great Britain. Gold and Silver Commission
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1888
First Third Final Report Of The Royal Commission Appointed To Inquire Into The Recent Changes In The Relative Values Of The Precious Metals written by Great Britain. Gold and Silver Commission and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1888 with Bimetallism categories.
Money And Its Relations To Prices
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Author : Price
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1896
Money And Its Relations To Prices written by Price and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1896 with categories.