Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing
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Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing
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Author : Obaid Younossi
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2007
Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing written by Obaid Younossi and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Business & Economics categories.
In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in the cost growth of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs. Cost growth is the ratio of the cost estimate reported in a program's final Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) and the cost-estimate baseline reported in a prior SAR issued at a particular milestone. Drawing on prior RAND research, new analyses of completed and ongoing weapon system programs, and data drawn from SARs, this study addresses the following questions: What is the cost growth of DoD weapon systems? What has been the trend of cost growth over the past three decades? To address the magnitude of cost growth, it examines cost growth in completed programs; to evaluate the cost growth trend over time, it provides additional analysis of a selection of ongoing programs. This sample of ongoing programs permits a look at growth trends in the more recent past. Changes in the mix of system types over time and dollar-weighted analysis were also considered because earlier studies have suggested that cost growth varies by program type and the cost of the program. The findings suggest that development cost growth over the past three decades has remained high and without any significant improvement.
Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing A Quantitative Assessment Of Completed And Ongoing Programs
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing A Quantitative Assessment Of Completed And Ongoing Programs written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with categories.
Cost growth in DoD acquisition programs has been a long-standing concern of senior policymakers and members of Congress. In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in this growth. Some changes involve reforms to the acquisition process, while others entail legislation. The RAND Corporation has a long history of studying cost growth in defense acquisition, with research reaching back to the 1950s.
Historical Cost Growth Of Completed Weapon System Programs
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Author : Mark V. Arena
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2006
Historical Cost Growth Of Completed Weapon System Programs written by Mark V. Arena and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with History categories.
This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The purpose of the project is to improve the tools used to estimate the costs of future weapon systems. It focuses on how recent technical, management, and government policy changes affect cost. This report focuses on the accuracy of cost estimates. For our analysis, we used a very specific sample of Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data, namely only programs that are complete or are nearly so. The analysis indicates a systematic bias toward underestimating the costs and substantial uncertainty in estimating the final cost of a weapon system. In contrast to the previous literature, the cost growth was higher than previously observed. We also found few correlations with cost growth, but observed that programs with longer duration had greater cost growth and electronics programs tended to have lower cost growth. Although there were some differences in the mean cost growth factors among the military departments, the differences were not statistically significant. While newer programs appear to have lower cost growth, this trend appears to be due to factors other than acquisition policies.
Cost Growth In Weapon Systems
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Author : Neil M. Singer
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1983
Cost Growth In Weapon Systems written by Neil M. Singer and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1983 with Arms transfers categories.
An Analysis Of Weapon System Cost Growth
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1993
An Analysis Of Weapon System Cost Growth written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with categories.
Cost growth in weapon system development, one result of the inherent risk of developing advanced systems, has been a prevalent problem for many years. A systematic bias in cost estimates can undermine the basis of resource allocation decisions, an important problem in a tight budget environment. Currently DoD is in this situation. This exploratory research attempts to gain new insight into this old acquisition issue. In particular, our objectives were to quantify the magnitude of cost growth in weapon systems, and identify factors affecting cost growth. A better understanding of the scope of the cost growth problem would provide decisionmakers with an improved basis for mitigating cost growth. Insight into the drivers of cost growth might suggest policy alternatives appropriate to the goal of mitigating cost growth. This research uses a database composed of 197 major weapon systems reporting through the Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) process as of December 1990 to address these issues. While we have quantified the magnitude of weapon system cost growth along a number of dimensions, we could not definitively account for the observed cost growth patterns. Thus, no silver bullet policy option is available for mitigating cost growth.
An Analysis Of Weapon System Cost Growth
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1993
An Analysis Of Weapon System Cost Growth written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with categories.
Cost growth in weapon system development, one result of the inherent risk of developing advanced systems, has been a prevalent problem for many years. A systematic bias in cost estimates can undermine the basis of resource allocation decisions, an important problem in a tight budget environment. Currently DoD is in this situation. This exploratory research attempts to gain new insight into this old acquisition issue. In particular, our objectives were to quantify the magnitude of cost growth in weapon systems, and identify factors affecting cost growth. A better understanding of the scope of the cost growth problem would provide decisionmakers with an improved basis for mitigating cost growth. Insight into the drivers of cost growth might suggest policy alternatives appropriate to the goal of mitigating cost growth. This research uses a database composed of 197 major weapon systems reporting through the Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) process as of December 1990 to address these issues. While we have quantified the magnitude of weapon system cost growth along a number of dimensions, we could not definitively account for the observed cost growth patterns. Thus, no silver bullet policy option is available for mitigating cost growth.
Sources Of Weapon System Cost Growth
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Author : Joseph George Bolten
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2008
Sources Of Weapon System Cost Growth written by Joseph George Bolten and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with History categories.
Previous studies have shown that the Department of Defense (DoD) and the military departments have historically underestimated the cost of new weapon systems. Quantifying cost growth is important, but the larger issue is why cost growth occurs. To address that issue, this analysis uses data from Selected Acquisition Reports to examine 35 mature, but not necessarily complete, major defense acquisition programs similar to the type and complexity of those typically managed by the Air Force. The programs are first examined as a complete set, then Air Force and non-Air Force programs are analyzed separately to determine whether the causes of cost growth in the two groups differ. Four major sources of cost growth were identified: (1) errors in estimation and scheduling, (2) decisions made by the government, (3) financial matters, and (4) miscellaneous sources. Total (development plus procurement) cost growth, when measured as simple averages among the program set, is dominated by decisions, which account for more than two-thirds of the growth. Most decisions-related cost growth involves quantity changes (22 percent), requirements growth (13 percent), and schedule changes (9 percent). Cost estimation (10 percent) is the only large contributor in the errors category. Less than 4 percent of the overall cost growth is due to financial and miscellaneous causes. Because decisions involving changes in requirements, quantities, and production schedules dominate cost growth, program managers, service leadership, and Congress should look for ways to reduce changes in these areas.
Application Of Design To Cost Concept To Major Weapon System Acquisitions
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Author : United States. General Accounting Office
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1975
Application Of Design To Cost Concept To Major Weapon System Acquisitions written by United States. General Accounting Office and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1975 with United States categories.
Cost Growth In Major Weapon Systems In The Department Of Defense
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Author : United States. General Accounting Office
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1973
Cost Growth In Major Weapon Systems In The Department Of Defense written by United States. General Accounting Office and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1973 with United States categories.
Pitfalls In Calculating Cost Growth From Selected Acquisition Reports
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Author : Paul G. Hough
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1992
Pitfalls In Calculating Cost Growth From Selected Acquisition Reports written by Paul G. Hough and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992 with United States categories.
Cost growth is a highly visible phenomenon in the procurement of major weapon systems. In general, cost growth is the ratio of a weapon system's current estimate of cost to that of some earlier estimate. Thus, even given the same current estimate, different measures of cost growth are possible, depending on which prior estimate is selected as the baseline. Most studies of cost growth, however, select the cost estimate made at the time of program entry into full-scale development (the development estimate) as the baseline. Both the current estimate and the development estimate are normally taken from the Selected Acquisition Report (SAR), a legally mandated summary report on the status of major acquisition programs. This Note identifies and explains the type of cost data found in the SAR and reviews the history of the SAR with respect to cost reporting. In spite of changes that have improved the quality and comprehensiveness of the data in the SAR, it still presents difficulties for measuring cost growth. Among the most notable problems are failure of some programs to use a consistent baseline cost estimate, exclusion of some significant elements of cost, exclusion of certain classes of major programs, and constantly changing preparation guidelines. Nevertheless, the author concludes that SAR data are suitable for identifying broad-based trends and temporal patterns across a range of programs.