Sources Of Weapon System Cost Growth
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Sources Of Weapon System Cost Growth
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Author : Joseph George Bolten
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2008
Sources Of Weapon System Cost Growth written by Joseph George Bolten and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with History categories.
Previous studies have shown that the Department of Defense (DoD) and the military departments have historically underestimated the cost of new weapon systems. Quantifying cost growth is important, but the larger issue is why cost growth occurs. To address that issue, this analysis uses data from Selected Acquisition Reports to examine 35 mature, but not necessarily complete, major defense acquisition programs similar to the type and complexity of those typically managed by the Air Force. The programs are first examined as a complete set, then Air Force and non-Air Force programs are analyzed separately to determine whether the causes of cost growth in the two groups differ. Four major sources of cost growth were identified: (1) errors in estimation and scheduling, (2) decisions made by the government, (3) financial matters, and (4) miscellaneous sources. Total (development plus procurement) cost growth, when measured as simple averages among the program set, is dominated by decisions, which account for more than two-thirds of the growth. Most decisions-related cost growth involves quantity changes (22 percent), requirements growth (13 percent), and schedule changes (9 percent). Cost estimation (10 percent) is the only large contributor in the errors category. Less than 4 percent of the overall cost growth is due to financial and miscellaneous causes. Because decisions involving changes in requirements, quantities, and production schedules dominate cost growth, program managers, service leadership, and Congress should look for ways to reduce changes in these areas.
Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing
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Author : Obaid Younossi
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2007
Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing written by Obaid Younossi and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Business & Economics categories.
In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in the cost growth of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs. Cost growth is the ratio of the cost estimate reported in a program's final Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) and the cost-estimate baseline reported in a prior SAR issued at a particular milestone. Drawing on prior RAND research, new analyses of completed and ongoing weapon system programs, and data drawn from SARs, this study addresses the following questions: What is the cost growth of DoD weapon systems? What has been the trend of cost growth over the past three decades? To address the magnitude of cost growth, it examines cost growth in completed programs; to evaluate the cost growth trend over time, it provides additional analysis of a selection of ongoing programs. This sample of ongoing programs permits a look at growth trends in the more recent past. Changes in the mix of system types over time and dollar-weighted analysis were also considered because earlier studies have suggested that cost growth varies by program type and the cost of the program. The findings suggest that development cost growth over the past three decades has remained high and without any significant improvement.
Historical Cost Growth Of Completed Weapon System Programs
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Author : Mark V. Arena
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2006
Historical Cost Growth Of Completed Weapon System Programs written by Mark V. Arena and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with History categories.
This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The purpose of the project is to improve the tools used to estimate the costs of future weapon systems. It focuses on how recent technical, management, and government policy changes affect cost. This report focuses on the accuracy of cost estimates. For our analysis, we used a very specific sample of Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data, namely only programs that are complete or are nearly so. The analysis indicates a systematic bias toward underestimating the costs and substantial uncertainty in estimating the final cost of a weapon system. In contrast to the previous literature, the cost growth was higher than previously observed. We also found few correlations with cost growth, but observed that programs with longer duration had greater cost growth and electronics programs tended to have lower cost growth. Although there were some differences in the mean cost growth factors among the military departments, the differences were not statistically significant. While newer programs appear to have lower cost growth, this trend appears to be due to factors other than acquisition policies.
Cost Growth In Weapon Systems
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Author : Neil M. Singer
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1983
Cost Growth In Weapon Systems written by Neil M. Singer and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1983 with United States categories.
An Analysis Of Weapon System Cost Growth
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1993
An Analysis Of Weapon System Cost Growth written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with categories.
Cost growth in weapon system development, one result of the inherent risk of developing advanced systems, has been a prevalent problem for many years. A systematic bias in cost estimates can undermine the basis of resource allocation decisions, an important problem in a tight budget environment. Currently DoD is in this situation. This exploratory research attempts to gain new insight into this old acquisition issue. In particular, our objectives were to quantify the magnitude of cost growth in weapon systems, and identify factors affecting cost growth. A better understanding of the scope of the cost growth problem would provide decisionmakers with an improved basis for mitigating cost growth. Insight into the drivers of cost growth might suggest policy alternatives appropriate to the goal of mitigating cost growth. This research uses a database composed of 197 major weapon systems reporting through the Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) process as of December 1990 to address these issues. While we have quantified the magnitude of weapon system cost growth along a number of dimensions, we could not definitively account for the observed cost growth patterns. Thus, no silver bullet policy option is available for mitigating cost growth.
An Analysis Of Weapon System Cost Growth
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1993
An Analysis Of Weapon System Cost Growth written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with categories.
Cost growth in weapon system development, one result of the inherent risk of developing advanced systems, has been a prevalent problem for many years. A systematic bias in cost estimates can undermine the basis of resource allocation decisions, an important problem in a tight budget environment. Currently DoD is in this situation. This exploratory research attempts to gain new insight into this old acquisition issue. In particular, our objectives were to quantify the magnitude of cost growth in weapon systems, and identify factors affecting cost growth. A better understanding of the scope of the cost growth problem would provide decisionmakers with an improved basis for mitigating cost growth. Insight into the drivers of cost growth might suggest policy alternatives appropriate to the goal of mitigating cost growth. This research uses a database composed of 197 major weapon systems reporting through the Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) process as of December 1990 to address these issues. While we have quantified the magnitude of weapon system cost growth along a number of dimensions, we could not definitively account for the observed cost growth patterns. Thus, no silver bullet policy option is available for mitigating cost growth.
Cost Growth In Major Weapon Systems In The Department Of Defense
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Author : United States. General Accounting Office
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1973
Cost Growth In Major Weapon Systems In The Department Of Defense written by United States. General Accounting Office and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1973 with United States categories.
Historical Cost Growth Of Completed Weapon System Programs
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Historical Cost Growth Of Completed Weapon System Programs written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with categories.
This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The report complements another document from this project, "Impossible Certainty: Cost Risk Analysis for Air Force Systems," and includes a literature review of cost growth studies and a more extensive analysis of the historical cost growth in acquisition programs than appears in the companion report. Overall, most of the studies reviewed reported that actual costs were greater than estimates of baseline costs. The most common metric used to measure cost growth is the cost growth factor (CGF), which is defined as the ratio of the actual cost to the estimated costs. A CGF of less than 1.0 indicates that the estimate was higher than the actual cost -- an underrun. When the CGF exceeds 1.0, the actual costs were higher than the estimate -- an overrun. Studies of weapon system cost growth have mainly relied on data from Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs). These reports are prepared annually by all major defense acquisition program (MDAP) offices within the military services to provide the U.S. Congress with cost, schedule, and performance status. The comparison baseline (estimate) typically corresponds to a major acquisition decision milestone. Prior studies have reported Milestone (MS) II CGFs for development costs ranging from 1.16 to 2.26; estimates of procurement CGFs ranging from 1.16 to 1.65; and total program CGFs ranging from 1.20 to 1.54. Regarding the differences among cost growth due to service, weapon, and time period, prior studies tended to find the following: Army weapon systems had higher cost growth than did weapon systems for the Air Force or Navy; cost growth differs by equipment type; and cost growth has declined from the 1960s and 1970s, after it was recognized as an important problem.
Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing A Quantitative Assessment Of Completed And Ongoing Programs
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing A Quantitative Assessment Of Completed And Ongoing Programs written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with categories.
Cost growth in DoD acquisition programs has been a long-standing concern of senior policymakers and members of Congress. In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in this growth. Some changes involve reforms to the acquisition process, while others entail legislation. The RAND Corporation has a long history of studying cost growth in defense acquisition, with research reaching back to the 1950s.
Weapons Cost
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Author : United States. General Accounting Office
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1988
Weapons Cost written by United States. General Accounting Office and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1988 with Weapons systems categories.