It S Never Different Fiscal Policy Shocks And Inflation

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It S Never Different Fiscal Policy Shocks And Inflation

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Author : Mr. Serhan Cevik
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-05-12

It S Never Different Fiscal Policy Shocks And Inflation written by Mr. Serhan Cevik and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-05-12 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper investigates the impact of fiscal shocks on inflation, using a large panel of 139 countries over the period 1970–2021. First, both headline and core measures of inflation increase in response to expansionary shifts in the fiscal policy stance. Second, we split the sample and observe an intriguing pattern that fiscal policy shocks are primarily significant in developing countries. Third, the inflationary impact of fiscal policy shocks is dependent on fiscal space and economic conditions, as well as monetary policy type, exchange rate regimes and fiscal rules, at the time of the shock. We confirm these results by using the narrative approach and forecast errors, as well as cyclically- adjusted data on government revenues and non-interest expenditures, to identify exogenous changes in fiscal policy. The analysis has several important policy implications: (i) fiscal policy is a critical anchor of macroeconomic stability; (ii) fiscal policy should be used with care in aggregate demand management as it has significant effects on inflation, which are highly dependent on fiscal space and economic conditions; and (iii) flexible exchange rates and rule-based policymaking provide greater resilience to inflationary shocks.

Coordination Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies

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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1998-03-01

Coordination Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-03-01 with Business & Economics categories.

Recently, monetary authorities have increasingly focused on implementing policies to ensure price stability and strengthen central bank independence. Simultaneously, in the fiscal area, market development has allowed public debt managers to focus more on cost minimization. This “divorce” of monetary and debt management functions in no way lessens the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic performance is to be optimized and maintained in the long term. This paper analyzes these issues based on a review of the relevant literature and of country experiences from an institutional and operational perspective.

Economic Policy And The Great Stagflation

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Author : Alan S. Blinder
language : en
Publisher: New York; Toronto : Academic Press
Release Date : 1979

Economic Policy And The Great Stagflation written by Alan S. Blinder and has been published by New York; Toronto : Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1979 with Business & Economics categories.

Monograph using economic theory to analyse errors in economic policy leading to economic recession and inflation in the USA during 1971 to 1976 - outlines basic concepts of stagflation such as aggregate supply and demand analysis and the trade-off between inflation and unemployment, examines recession dynamics (productivity, consumption and investment problems) and effects of rising prices, and presents economic analysis of wages-price controls, fiscal policy and monetary policy. Bibliography pp. 219 to 223 and graphs.

Can Fiscal Consolidation Announcements Help Anchor Inflation Expectations

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Author : Mr. Antonio David
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-03-15

Can Fiscal Consolidation Announcements Help Anchor Inflation Expectations written by Mr. Antonio David and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-15 with Business & Economics categories.

In this paper, we use quarterly data and a novel database on fiscal policy consolidation announcements, for a sample of advanced economies and emerging markets to quantify the effects of fiscal tightening on inflation expectations. We find that fiscal consolidation announcements reduce inflation expectations over the medium-term (three and five-years ahead), but not in the short-term (one-year ahead). There is also some evidence that consolidation announcements reduce “disagreement” about expected future inflation at longer horizons. The inflation anchoring role of consolidation announcements is enhanced by the strength of a country’s fiscal and monetary frameworks, and when fiscal and monetary policy work in tandem. In addition, we find that initial conditions matter—inflation expectation’s response to consolidation announcements is larger in periods of high contemporaneous inflation. With these results in hand, we show that the effectiveness of fiscal consolidation in controlling realized inflation depends greatly on the response of inflation expectations to consolidation announcements. These results show that fiscal policy is crucial to anchor inflation expectations and a key element of a credible disinflationary process.

Debt Surges Drivers Consequences And Policy Implications

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Author : Florian Schuster
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-03-08

Debt Surges Drivers Consequences And Policy Implications written by Florian Schuster and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-08 with Business & Economics categories.

Many countries find themselves with elevated debt levels, increased debt vulnerabilities, and tight financing conditions, while also facing increased spending needs for development and transition to a greener economy. This paper aims to place the current debt landscape in a historical context and investigate the drivers of debt surges, to what degree they result in a crisis as well as examine post-surge debt trajectories and under what conditions debt follows a non-declining path. We find that fiscal policy and stock-flow adjustments play important roles in debt dynamics with the valuation effects arising from currency depreciation explaining more than half of stock flow adjustments in LICs. Debt surges are estimated to result in a financial crisis with a probability of 11–20 percent and spending-driven fiscal expansions during debt surges tend to result in a high probability of non-declining debt path.

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks In Low Income And Other Developing Countries

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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-10-23

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks In Low Income And Other Developing Countries written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-10-23 with Business & Economics categories.

Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.

Botswana

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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2025-02-21

Botswana written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-02-21 with Business & Economics categories.

At the request of Bank of Botswana, a Technical Assistance mission from the Monetary and Capital Markets (MCM) Department visited Gaborone, Botswana during May 27-31, 2024, to assist the authorities in enhancing their forecasting and policy analysis system (FPAS). The mission assessed and advised on both near-term and medium-term forecasting tools and models currently used by the Bank of Botswana. The mission team helped create a new centralized database and introduced a new flexible platform with a suite of models that expands and complements existing near-term forecasting models. The mission team also improved the medium-term forecasting framework by reviewing model calibration, introducing a fiscal block, and recommending further adjustments.

Quasi Fiscal Operations Of Public Financial Institutions

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Author : Mr.George A. Mackenzie
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1996-10-24

Quasi Fiscal Operations Of Public Financial Institutions written by Mr.George A. Mackenzie and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1996-10-24 with Business & Economics categories.

Central banks and other public financial institutions act as agents of fiscal policy in many countries. Their "quasi-fiscal" operations and activities can affect the overall public sector balance without affecting the budget deficit as conventionally measured, may also have important allocative effects, and increase the effective size of the public sector. This paper analyzes the macroeconomic and financial effects of such quasi-fiscal activities, as well as the taxes, subsidies, and other expenditures that such activities introduce outside the budget. Measurement and accounting issues are addressed, and policy recommendations are offered.

Oecd Economic Surveys United States 2024

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Author : OECD
language : en
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Release Date : 2024-06-25

Oecd Economic Surveys United States 2024 written by OECD and has been published by OECD Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-06-25 with categories.

The United States economy has continued to expand at a solid pace and price pressures have eased somewhat. However, a sustained fiscal deficit has contributed to raising public debt as a share of GDP to its highest level since World War II, with a further substantial increase in prospect over coming decades as the population ages. To put the public finances on a more sustainable path, a multi-year fiscal adjustment should be enacted that achieves savings on pensions and healthcare and raises taxation, including on capital incomes. A more medium-term oriented and less complicated federal budgeting process would support this. At the same time, economic growth would benefit from productivity enhancing reforms that promote competition, including through maintaining international trade openness and reinforcing relevant skills in the workforce. Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have accelerated, but further policy measures will be needed to achieve emission reduction targets. Policy options include a package of broad-based carbon pricing, taxes and sectoral policies. As the climate transition further progresses, additional measures will be needed to support displaced workers from fossil fuel industries and for climate adaptation. SPECIAL FEATURE: MANAGING FISCAL PRESSURES IN THE UNITED STATES

The Inflation Targeting Debate

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Author : Ben S. Bernanke
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2007-11-01

The Inflation Targeting Debate written by Ben S. Bernanke and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-11-01 with Business & Economics categories.

Over the past fifteen years, a significant number of industrialized and middle-income countries have adopted inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policymaking. As the name suggests, in such inflation-targeting regimes, the central bank is responsible for achieving a publicly announced target for the inflation rate. While the objective of controlling inflation enjoys wide support among both academic experts and policymakers, and while the countries that have followed this model have generally experienced good macroeconomic outcomes, many important questions about inflation targeting remain. In Inflation Targeting, a distinguished group of contributors explores the many underexamined dimensions of inflation targeting—its potential, its successes, and its limitations—from both a theoretical and an empirical standpoint, and for both developed and emerging economies. The volume opens with a discussion of the optimal formulation of inflation-targeting policy and continues with a debate about the desirability of such a model for the United States. The concluding chapters discuss the special problems of inflation targeting in emerging markets, including the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary.