Justification Of Induction By Inference To Lesser Coincidence
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Justification Of Induction By Inference To Lesser Coincidence
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Author : Daniel Jonathan Elstein
language : en
Publisher: Stanford University
Release Date : 2011
Justification Of Induction By Inference To Lesser Coincidence written by Daniel Jonathan Elstein and has been published by Stanford University this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with categories.
I begin by identifying David Hume's problem of induction. Hume argues that induction cannot be justified by a priori reasoning, because the failure of induction does not imply contradiction, or by a posteriori reasoning, because reasoning that the unobserved will resemble the observed based on observation would be circular. Hume concludes that induction cannot be justified by any reasoning. The principle that nature is uniform cannot be established without assuming that nature is uniform. But many paradigmatic instances of induction can be justified in terms of something weaker than the principle that nature is uniform, namely a form of reasoning I call "inference to lesser coincidence". This form of reasoning is meant to incorporate traditional formulations of the justification of induction expressed in terms of inference to the best explanation, statistical sampling, and Bayesian reasoning. My version of the argument is as follows: The conditional, time-invariant proposition that vast regularities in progress are likely to continue somewhat further is either true or false. If false, then the regularities we have observed are colossally coincidental. If true, they are far less coincidental. Therefore the proposition is probably true. If, in fact, vast regularities in progress are likely to continue, this has application to specific cases, such as the possibility that the Sun will rise again. I respond to three objections, which claim that time-restricted laws lessen the coincidence of observed regularities without making it likely that the Sun will rise again, that the "sample" of observed events might be biased, and that a zero prior probability assignment for dependence might be justified. I conclude by discussing the meaning of 'cause'.
Justification Of Induction By Inference To Lesser Coincidence
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Author : Daniel Jonathan Elstein
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
Justification Of Induction By Inference To Lesser Coincidence written by Daniel Jonathan Elstein and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with categories.
I begin by identifying David Hume's problem of induction. Hume argues that induction cannot be justified by a priori reasoning, because the failure of induction does not imply contradiction, or by a posteriori reasoning, because reasoning that the unobserved will resemble the observed based on observation would be circular. Hume concludes that induction cannot be justified by any reasoning. The principle that nature is uniform cannot be established without assuming that nature is uniform. But many paradigmatic instances of induction can be justified in terms of something weaker than the principle that nature is uniform, namely a form of reasoning I call "inference to lesser coincidence". This form of reasoning is meant to incorporate traditional formulations of the justification of induction expressed in terms of inference to the best explanation, statistical sampling, and Bayesian reasoning. My version of the argument is as follows: The conditional, time-invariant proposition that vast regularities in progress are likely to continue somewhat further is either true or false. If false, then the regularities we have observed are colossally coincidental. If true, they are far less coincidental. Therefore the proposition is probably true. If, in fact, vast regularities in progress are likely to continue, this has application to specific cases, such as the possibility that the Sun will rise again. I respond to three objections, which claim that time-restricted laws lessen the coincidence of observed regularities without making it likely that the Sun will rise again, that the "sample" of observed events might be biased, and that a zero prior probability assignment for dependence might be justified. I conclude by discussing the meaning of 'cause'.
Optimality Justifications
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Author : Gerhard Schurz
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2024-01-24
Optimality Justifications written by Gerhard Schurz and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-01-24 with Philosophy categories.
The leading idea of epistemology in the Enlightenment tradition was foundation-theoretic: to reach knowledge, we must not legitimize our beliefs by external authorities, but instead justify them by rational arguments. Recently, the foundation-theoretic ideal of justification has come under attack, the chief criticism being that universal standards of justification are illusory because the problem of a regress of justification is unsolvable. Alternatives to foundation theory (coherentism, externalism, or dogmatism) have been developed that give up central claims of Enlightenment epistemology such as empirical support, cognitive accessibility, or rational justifiability. Optimality Justifications develops a new account of foundation-theoretic epistemology based on the method of optimality justifications. Optimality justifications offer a solution to the regress problem. Rather than striving for a priori demonstrations of reliability, which are impossible, they show that certain epistemic methods are optimal with regard to all accessible alternatives, which is more modestly but provably possible. In particular, optimality justifications can achieve a non-circular justification of deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning. This volume pursues two goals: a general renewal of foundation-theoretic epistemology based on the account of optimality justifications, and the advancement of methods of optimality justification in important domains of epistemology and the philosophy of science, logic, and cognition. Connected with these goals is the aspiration to develop new ideas for mainstream epistemology, as well as for formal epistemology, philosophy of science, and cognitive science, which are intended to attract researchers, students, and all other readers interested in these fields.
The Foundations Of Scientific Inference
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Author : Wesley Salmon
language : en
Publisher: University of Pittsburgh Pre
Release Date : 1967-09
The Foundations Of Scientific Inference written by Wesley Salmon and has been published by University of Pittsburgh Pre this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1967-09 with Philosophy categories.
Not since Ernest Nagel’s 1939 monograph on the theory of probability has there been a comprehensive elementary survey of the philosophical problems of probablity and induction. This is an authoritative and up-to-date treatment of the subject, and yet it is relatively brief and nontechnical. Hume’s skeptical arguments regarding the justification of induction are taken as a point of departure, and a variety of traditional and contemporary ways of dealing with this problem are considered. The author then sets forth his own criteria of adequacy for interpretations of probability. Utilizing these criteria he analyzes contemporary theories of probability, as well as the older classical and subjective interpretations.
Hume S Problem
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Author : Colin Howson
language : en
Publisher: Clarendon Press
Release Date : 2000-11-02
Hume S Problem written by Colin Howson and has been published by Clarendon Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-11-02 with Philosophy categories.
Colin Howson offers a solution to one of the central, unsolved problems of Western philosophy, the problem of induction. In the mid-eighteenth century David Hume argued that successful prediction tells us nothing about the truth of the predicting theory. No matter how many experimental tests a hypothesis passes, nothing can be legitimately inferred about its truth or probable truth. But physical theory routinely predicts the values of observable magnitudes to many small places of decimals and within very small ranges of error. The chance of this sort of predictive success without a true theory seems so remote that the possibility should be dismissed. This suggests that Hume's argument must be wrong; but there is still no consensus on where exactly this flaw lies. Howson argues that there is no flaw, and examines the implications of this disturbing conclusion for relation between science and its empirical base.
The Material Theory Of Induction
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Author : John D. Norton
language : en
Publisher: Bsps Open
Release Date : 2021
The Material Theory Of Induction written by John D. Norton and has been published by Bsps Open this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with Philosophy categories.
"The inaugural title in the new, Open Access series BSPS Open, The Material Theory of Induction will initiate a new tradition in the analysis of inductive inference. The fundamental burden of a theory of inductive inference is to determine which are the good inductive inferences or relations of inductive support and why it is that they are so. The traditional approach is modeled on that taken in accounts of deductive inference. It seeks universally applicable schemas or rules or a single formal device, such as the probability calculus. After millennia of halting efforts, none of these approaches has been unequivocally successful and debates between approaches persist. The Material Theory of Induction identifies the source of these enduring problems in the assumption taken at the outset: that inductive inference can be accommodated by a single formal account with universal applicability. Instead, it argues that that there is no single, universally applicable formal account. Rather, each domain has an inductive logic native to it. Which that is, and its extent, is determined by the facts prevailing in that domain. Paying close attention to how inductive inference is conducted in science and copiously illustrated with real-world examples, The Material Theory of Induction will initiate a new tradition in the analysis of inductive inference."--
Readings On Laws Of Nature
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Author : John W. Carroll
language : en
Publisher: University of Pittsburgh Press
Release Date : 2014-03-26
Readings On Laws Of Nature written by John W. Carroll and has been published by University of Pittsburgh Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-03-26 with Philosophy categories.
As a subject of inquiry, laws of nature exist in the overlap between metaphysics and the philosophy of science. Over the past three decades, this area of study has become increasingly central to the philosophy of science. It also has relevance to a variety of topics in metaphysics, philosophy of mind, philosophy of language, and epistemology.Readings on Laws of Nature is the first anthology to offer a contemporary history of the problem of laws. The book is organized around three key issues: the matter of distinguishing laws from mere correlations, questions concerning inductive reasoning and laws, and the consideration of whether there are any true laws in science.Designed for class use, the anthology covers a remarkably broad range of views and concerns, and consists exclusively of articles that have proved highly influential in the field. Readings on Laws of Nature will also serve as a valuable research and reference tool for philosophers who do not specialize in the subject, but who have occasion to examine concepts relating to the laws of nature in their own work.
Introduction To Philosophy
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Author : John Perry
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Release Date : 2010
Introduction To Philosophy written by John Perry and has been published by Oxford University Press, USA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Philosophy categories.
Introduction to Philosophy: Classical and Contemporary Readings, Fifth Edition, is the most comprehensive topically organized collection of classical and contemporary philosophy available. Building on the exceptionally successful tradition of previous editions, the fifth edition presents seventy substantial selections from the best and most influential works in philosophy. Revised and updated to make it more pedagogical, this edition incorporates boldfaced key terms; a guide to writing philosophy papers; and a "Logical Toolkit," which lists and explains common terminology used in philosophical reasoning. This edition also features five new readings and a separate section on existential issues.
The Divine Lawmaker
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Author : John Foster
language : en
Publisher: Clarendon Press
Release Date : 2004-01-15
The Divine Lawmaker written by John Foster and has been published by Clarendon Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-01-15 with Philosophy categories.
John Foster presents a clear and powerful discussion of a range of topics relating to our understanding of the universe: induction, laws of nature, and the existence of God. He begins by developing a solution to the problem of induction - a solution whose key idea is that the regularities in the workings of nature that have held in our experience hitherto are to be explained by appeal to the controlling influence of laws, as forms of natural necessity. His second line of argument focuses on the issue of what we should take such necessitational laws to be, and whether we can even make sense of them at all. Having considered and rejected various alternatives, Foster puts forward his own proposal: the obtaining of a law consists in the causal imposing of a regularity on the universe as a regularity. With this causal account of laws in place, he is now equipped to offer an argument for theism. His claim is that natural regularities call for explanation, and that, whatever explanatory role we may initially assign to laws, the only plausible ultimate explanation is in terms of the agency of God. Finally, he argues that, once we accept the existence of God, we need to think of him as creating the universe by a method which imposes regularities on it in the relevant law-yielding way. In this new perspective, the original nomological-explanatory solution to the problem of induction becomes a theological-explanatory solution. The Divine Lawmaker is bold and original in its approach, and rich in argument. The issues on which it focuses are among the most important in the whole epistemological and metaphysical spectrum.
Handwriting Identification
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Author : Roy A. Huber
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 1999-04-15
Handwriting Identification written by Roy A. Huber and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999-04-15 with Law categories.
"Forensic document examination is the study of physical evidence and physical evidence cannot lie. Only its interpretation can err. Only the failure to find it, or to hear its true testimony can deprive it of its value." - Roy Huber, author A definitive review of handwriting identification, this book presents, in a general manner, how to approach document examination and then, in particular, how to apply handwriting identification to the document. Types of handwriting are discussed in detail. For the first time in the field of questioned document examination, Handwriting Identification: Facts and Fundamentals consolidates the pertinent information from published and unpublished sources respecting writing, that is essential to the expansion of a practitioner's general knowledge of handwriting identification and to the proper education of novices. Written in a question and answer format, the book suggests some of the questions that one might ask of an examiner and provides the answers that knowledgeable and competent examiners should be expected to give. This book is a valuable addition to law libraries and to every practicing document examiner, as well as every lawyer handling cases in which the authenticity of handwriting might be disputed.