Leaning Against The Wind A Cost Benefit Analysis For An Integrated Policy Framework
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Leaning Against The Wind A Cost Benefit Analysis For An Integrated Policy Framework
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Author : Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-07-07
Leaning Against The Wind A Cost Benefit Analysis For An Integrated Policy Framework written by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-07-07 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper takes a new approach to assess the costs and benefits of using different policy tools—macroprudential, monetary, foreign exchange interventions, and capital flow management—in response to changes in financial conditions. The approach evaluates net benefits of policies using quadratic loss functions, estimating policy effects on the full distribution of future output growth and inflation with quantile regressions. Tightening macroprudential policy dampens downside risks to growth stemming from loose financial conditions, and is beneficial in net terms. By contrast, tightening monetary policy entails net losses, calling for caution in the use of monetary policy to “lean against the wind.” These findings hold when policies are used in response to easing global financial conditions. Buying foreign-exchange or tightening capital controls has small net benefits.
Leaning Against The Wind
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Author : Luís Brandão Marques
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
Leaning Against The Wind written by Luís Brandão Marques and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with Cost effectiveness categories.
This paper takes a new approach to assess the benefits of using different policy tools -- macroprudential and monetary policies, foreign exchange interventions, and capital controls -- in response to changes in financial conditions. Starting from quantile regressions, we evaluate policies across the full distribution of future output growth and inflation using loss functions. Tightening macroprudential policy dampens downside risks to growth from loose financial conditions, and is beneficial in net terms. By contrast, tightening monetary policy entails net losses. These findings also hold when reacting to easing global financial conditions, while buying foreign exchange or tightening capital controls yields only small net benefits.
Cost Benefit Analysis Of Leaning Against The Wind
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Author : Trent Saunders
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Cost Benefit Analysis Of Leaning Against The Wind written by Trent Saunders and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
Shocks And Capital Flows
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Author : GASTON. SAHAY GELOS (RATNA.)
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023
Shocks And Capital Flows written by GASTON. SAHAY GELOS (RATNA.) and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023 with categories.
Micro Assessment Of Macroprudential Borrower Based Measures In Lithuania
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Author : Mantas Dirma
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-10-27
Micro Assessment Of Macroprudential Borrower Based Measures In Lithuania written by Mantas Dirma and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-10-27 with Business & Economics categories.
Despite having introduced borrower-based measures (BBM), Lithuania's housing and mortgage markets were booming during the low-interest-rate period, casting doubt on the macroprudential toolkit's ability to contain excessive mortgage growth. This paper assesses the adequacy of BBMs’ parametrization in Lithuania. We do so by building a novel lifetime expected credit loss framework that is founded on actual loan-level default and household income data. We show that the BBM package effectively contains mortgage credit risk and that housing loans are more resilient to stress than in the preregulatory era. Our BBM limit calibration exercise reveals that (1) in the low-rate environment, income-based measures could have been tighter; and (2) borrowers taking out secondary mortgages rightly are and should be required to pledge a higher down payment.
Housing Market Stability And Affordability In Asia Pacific
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Author : Mr. Pragyan Deb
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-12-14
Housing Market Stability And Affordability In Asia Pacific written by Mr. Pragyan Deb and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-12-14 with Business & Economics categories.
The paper intends to highlight challenges in Asian housing markets linked to fast price rises especially in the advanced economies since COVID, and more broadly including many EMs in the period leading up to COVID. It aims to draw policy lessons on how to manage stability aspects through macroprudential and other policies and how to support affordability through structural policies and targeted government support.
Firm Leverage And Boom Bust Cycles
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Author : Can Sever
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-06-16
Firm Leverage And Boom Bust Cycles written by Can Sever and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-06-16 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper explores the dynamic relationship between firm debt and real outcomes using data from 24 European economies over the period of 2000-2018. Based on macro data, it shows that a rise in credit to firms is associated with an increase in employment growth in the short-term, but employment growth declines in the medium-term. This pattern remains similar, even when the changes in credit to households are accounted for. Next, using data from a large sample of firms, it shows that firm leverage buildups predict similar boom-bust growth cycles in firm employment: Firms with a larger increase in leverage experience a boost in employment growth in the short-term, but employment growth decreases in the medium-term. Relatedly, the volatility of employment growth increases in the aftermath of firm leverage buildups. Finally, this paper provides suggestive evidence on the role of a financial channel in the relationship between firm leverage buildups and employment growth. The results show that a rise in firm leverage is associated with a persistently higher debt service ratio, pointing the drag on finances. Consistently, boom-bust growth cycles in the aftermath of firm leverage buildups are not limited to employment growth, but are also pronounced for investment. Moreover, the medium-term decline in firm employment growth as predicted by leverage buildups becomes even larger if aggregate financial conditions tighten. The findings are in favor of “lean against the wind” approach in policy making.
Loose Financial Conditions Rising Leverage And Risks To Macro Financial Stability
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Author : Mr. Adolfo Barajas
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-08-20
Loose Financial Conditions Rising Leverage And Risks To Macro Financial Stability written by Mr. Adolfo Barajas and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-08-20 with Business & Economics categories.
After a steady increase following the global financial crisis, private nonfinancial sector leverage rose further during the COVID-19 on the back of easy financial conditions induced by unprecedented policy support. We investigate the empirical relationships between increased leverage, financial conditions, and macro-financial stability in a sample of major advanced and emerging market economies. We find that loose financial conditions contribute to leverage buildups and generate an intertemporal tradeoff: financial stability risk is lessened in the near term but exacerbated in the medium term. The tradeoff is amplified during credit booms, when debt service burdens are particularly high, or when the share of foreign currency debt is high in emerging markets. Selected macroprudential tools can arrest leverage buildups and mitigate the tradeoff.
Dampening Global Financial Shocks Can Macroprudential Regulation Help More Than Capital Controls
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Author : Katharina Bergant
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-06-26
Dampening Global Financial Shocks Can Macroprudential Regulation Help More Than Capital Controls written by Katharina Bergant and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-06-26 with Business & Economics categories.
We show that macroprudential regulation can considerably dampen the impact of global financial shocks on emerging markets. More specifically, a tighter level of regulation reduces the sensitivity of GDP growth to VIX movements and capital flow shocks. A broad set of macroprudential tools contribute to this result, including measures targeting bank capital and liquidity, foreign currency mismatches, and risky forms of credit. We also find that tighter macroprudential regulation allows monetary policy to respond more countercyclically to global financial shocks. This could be an important channel through which macroprudential regulation enhances macroeconomic stability. These findings on the benefits of macroprudential regulation are particularly notable since we do not find evidence that stricter capital controls provide similar gains.
Review Of The Institutional View On The Liberalization And Management Of Capital Flows Background Note On Capital Flows And Capital Flow Management Measures Benefits And Costs
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Author : Gurnain Kaur Pasricha
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-03-30
Review Of The Institutional View On The Liberalization And Management Of Capital Flows Background Note On Capital Flows And Capital Flow Management Measures Benefits And Costs written by Gurnain Kaur Pasricha and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-03-30 with Business & Economics categories.
The Fund’s Institutional View (IV) recognizes the benefits of and risks associated with capital flows. Since the IV was adopted, a growing literature has provided additional insights into the benefits and risks from capital flows. This note summarizes the insights from the recent literature and the experiences of staff since the adoption of the IV that have informed this review.