Macroeconomic Effects Of Tax Rate And Base Changes Evidence From Fiscal Consolidations
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Macroeconomic Effects Of Tax Rate And Base Changes Evidence From Fiscal Consolidations
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Author : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-09-28
Macroeconomic Effects Of Tax Rate And Base Changes Evidence From Fiscal Consolidations written by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-09-28 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of tax changes during fiscal consolidations. We build a new narrative dataset of tax changes during fiscal consolidation years, containing detailed information on the expected revenue impact, motivation, and announcement and implementation dates of nearly 2,500 tax measures across 10 OECD countries. We analyze the macroeconomic impact of tax changes, distinguishing between tax rate and tax base changes, and further separating between changes in personal income, corporate income, and value added tax. Our results suggest that base broadening during fiscal consolidations leads to smaller output and employment declines compared to rate hikes, even when distinguishing between tax types.
Macroeconomic Effects Of Tax Rate And Base Changes
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Author : Frederico Lima
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022
Macroeconomic Effects Of Tax Rate And Base Changes written by Frederico Lima and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022 with categories.
This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of tax changes during fiscal consolidations. We build a new narrative dataset of tax changes during fiscal consolidation years, containing detailed information on the expected yield, motivation, and announcement and implementation dates of more than 2,000 tax measures across 10 OECD countries. Using this data, we then analyze the macroeconomic impact of tax changes, distinguishing between tax rate and tax base changes, and further differentiating between changes in personal income, corporate income, and value added taxes. Our results suggest that base broadening during fiscal consolidations leads to smaller output and employment declines compared to rate hikes, even when distinguishing between tax types.
The Macroeconomic And Distributional Implications Of Fiscal Consolidations In Low Income Countries
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Author : Adrian Peralta-Alva
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-06-13
The Macroeconomic And Distributional Implications Of Fiscal Consolidations In Low Income Countries written by Adrian Peralta-Alva and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-13 with Business & Economics categories.
We quantitatively investigate the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of fiscal consolidations in low-income countries (LICs) through value added tax (VAT), personal income tax (PIT), and corporate income tax (CIT). We extend the standard heterogeneous agents incomplete markets model by including multiple sectors and rural-urban distinction to capture salient features of LICs. We find that overall, VAT has the least efficiency costs but is highly regressive, while PIT impacts the economy in the opposite way with CIT staying in between. Cash transfers targeting rural households mitigate the negative distributional impacts of VAT most effectively, while public investment leads to little redistribution.
The Fiscal State Dependent Effects Of Capital Income Tax Cuts
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Author : Alexandra Fotiou
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-05-29
The Fiscal State Dependent Effects Of Capital Income Tax Cuts written by Alexandra Fotiou and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Using the post-WWII data of U.S. federal corporate income tax changes, within a Smooth Transition VAR, this paper finds that the output effect of capital income tax cuts is government debt-dependent: it is less expansionary when debt is high than when it is low. To explore the mechanisms that can drive this fiscal state-dependent tax effect, the paper uses a DSGE model with regime-switching fiscal policy and finds that a capital income tax cut is stimulative to the extent that it is unlikely to result in a future fiscal adjustment. As government debt increases to a sufficiently high level, the probability of future fiscal adjustments starts rising, and the expansionary effects of a capital income tax cut can diminish substantially, whether the expected adjustments are through a policy reversal or a consumption tax increase. Also, a capital income tax cut need not always have large revenue feedback effects as suggested in the literature.
Political Costs Of Tax Based Consolidations
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Author : Chuling Chen
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-12-27
Political Costs Of Tax Based Consolidations written by Chuling Chen and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-12-27 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper studies the impact of tax-based consolidations on reelection outcomes. Using a granular database of tax-based consolidations for a panel of 10 OECD countries over the last 40 years, we find that tax reforms are politically costly but some reforms are costlier than others. Measures aimed primarily at reducing existing deficits and debt are costlier than tax consolidation policies for improving long-term growth prospects. Electoral costs are particularly high for broad-based indirect tax and corporate tax reforms. Voters tend to penalize governments less if tax consolidations are announced early in the government’s term or if the government has a strong political mandate. Favorable economic conditions increase public support for tax-based consolidations. Personal income tax reforms are electorally salient if the reforms are frontloaded, announced during recessions, and in less progressive tax systems.
Tax Reforms And Fiscal Shock Smoothing
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Author : Mr.David Amaglobeli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-05-23
Tax Reforms And Fiscal Shock Smoothing written by Mr.David Amaglobeli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-05-23 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper examines the role of tax policy reforms in enhancing fiscal shock smoothing in a panel of 13 OECD economies during the period 1980-2017. The results suggest that tax reforms, in particular those that broaden the tax base, significantly enhance the ability of fiscal policy to mitigate the impact of growth shocks on disposable income. We find that the magnitude of shock smoothing increases from an average of 2 percent to 3-31⁄2 percent following the reform. The effects are considerably higher for tax base than tax rate changes, and also higher for indirect tax than direct tax changes. The effects are symmetric—that is, the increase in shock smoothing following a reform expanding the tax base (rate) is similar to the decline in shock smoothing after a reform narrowing the tax base (rate). Tax elasticity, collection efficiency, and the progressivity of the tax system are important channels through which tax reforms affect fiscal stabilization.
The Dynamic Macroeconomic Effects Of Tax Policy In An Overlapping Generations Model
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Author : Ben J. Heijdra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1998-12
The Dynamic Macroeconomic Effects Of Tax Policy In An Overlapping Generations Model written by Ben J. Heijdra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-12 with Business & Economics categories.
The paper studies the dynamic allocation effects of tax policy in the context of an overlapping generations model of the Blanchard-Yaari type. The model is extended to allow for endogenous labor supply and three tax instruments: a capital income tax, labor income tax, and consumption tax. Analytical expressions and simple diagrams are used to discuss the impact, transition, and long-run effects of tax policy changes. It is shown that a part of the long-run incidence of capital and consumption taxes falls on capital when households’ horizons are finite, whereas labor would fully bear the burden of these taxes in an infinite horizon model.
Fundamental Determinants Of The Effects Of Fiscal Policy
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Author : Dennis Petrus Johannes Botman
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2006
Fundamental Determinants Of The Effects Of Fiscal Policy written by Dennis Petrus Johannes Botman and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Fiscal policy categories.
We explore the underlying determinants of the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy and tax and social security reform using the Global Fiscal Model (GFM). We show that the planning horizon of consumers, access to financial markets, and the elasticity of labor supply, as well as the characteristics of utility and production functions, and the degree of competition are all critical for determining the impact of fiscal policy. Four topical fiscal policy issues, for a representative large and small economy, are examined: the effects of changes in government debt; higher government spending; tax reform; and privatization of retirement savings.
The Value Added Tax And Growth Design Matters
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Author : Mr.Santiago Acosta Ormaechea
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-05-07
The Value Added Tax And Growth Design Matters written by Mr.Santiago Acosta Ormaechea and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-05-07 with Business & Economics categories.
Does the design of a tax matter for growth? Assembling a novel dataset for 30 OECD countries over the 1970-2016 period, this paper examines whether the value added tax (VAT) may have different effects on long-run growth depending on whether it is raised through the standard rate or through C-efficiency (a measure of the departure of the VAT from a perfectly enforced tax levied at a single rate on all consumption). Our key findings are twofold. First, for a given total tax revenue, a rise in the VAT, financed by a fall in income taxes, promotes growth only when the VAT is raised through C-efficiency. Second, for a given VAT revenue, a rise in Cefficiency, offset by a fall in the standard rate, also promotes growth. The implication is thus that in OECD countries broadening the VAT base through fewer reduced rates and exemptions is more conducive to higher long-run growth than a rise in the standard rate.
Macroeconomic Effects Of Social Security And Tax Reform In The United States
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Author : Dennis P. J. Botman
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2005-11-01
Macroeconomic Effects Of Social Security And Tax Reform In The United States written by Dennis P. J. Botman and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-11-01 with categories.
We use the IMF's Global Fiscal Model to evaluate recent proposals to reform social security and the tax system in the United States. Introducing personal retirement accounts is unlikely to yield significant macroeconomic benefits unless it spurs additional fiscal consolidation to prevent a large increase in government debt. Similar benefits are obtained if the social security surplus is placed in a lockbox while maintaining the same debt target. Lowering the taxation of investment income is beneficial, but only if the reform is revenue neutral. Debtneutral social security and tax reform in the United States has large positive effects on the rest of the world.