Macroeconomic Uncertainty Precautionary Savings And The Current Account
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Macroeconomic Uncertainty Precautionary Savings And The Current Account
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Author : Mr.Atish R. Ghosh
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1992-09-01
Macroeconomic Uncertainty Precautionary Savings And The Current Account written by Mr.Atish R. Ghosh and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992-09-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The relationship between current account developments and changes in the macroeconomic environment remains a key issue in open economy macroeconomics. This paper extends the standard intertemporal optimizing model of the current account to incorporate the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on private savings behavior. It is shown that the greater the uncertainty in national cash flow, defined as output less investment less government expenditure, the greater is the precautionary demand for savings and, other things equal, the larger is the current account surplus. Empirical support for the model is found using quarterly data from four large industrial countries.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty Precautionary Savings And The Current Account
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Author : Atish R. Ghosh
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1992
Macroeconomic Uncertainty Precautionary Savings And The Current Account written by Atish R. Ghosh and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992 with Balance of payments categories.
Dissecting Saving Dynamics
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Author : Mr.Christopher Carroll
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-09-01
Dissecting Saving Dynamics written by Mr.Christopher Carroll and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-09-01 with Business & Economics categories.
We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate’s long stability (from the 1960s through the early 1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s - 2007), and recent substantial increase (2008 - 2011) can all be interpreted using a parsimonious ‘buffer stock’ model of optimal consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model is affected by the gap between ‘target’ and actual wealth, with the target wealth determined by credit conditions and uncertainty. An estimated structural version of the model suggests that increased credit availability accounts for most of the saving rate’s long-term decline, while fluctuations in net wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business-cycle variation.
Precautionary Savings In The Great Recession
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Author : Mr.Ashoka Mody
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-02-01
Precautionary Savings In The Great Recession written by Mr.Ashoka Mody and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-02-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Heightened uncertainty since the onset of the Great Recession has materially increased saving rates, contributing to lower consumption and GDP growth. Consistent with a model of precautionary savings in the face of uncertainty, we find for a panel of advanced economies that greater labor income uncertainty is significantly associated with higher household savings. These results are robust to controlling for other determinants of saving rates, including wealth-to-income ratios, the government fiscal balance, demographics, credit conditions, and global growth and financial stress. Our estimates imply that at least two-fifths of the sharp increase in household saving rates between 2007 and 2009 can be attributed to the precautionary savings motive.
Precautionary Savings And Global Imbalances In World General Equilibrium
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Author : Mr.Damiano Sandri
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-06-01
Precautionary Savings And Global Imbalances In World General Equilibrium written by Mr.Damiano Sandri and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-06-01 with Business & Economics categories.
In this paper we assess the implications of precautionary savings for global imbalances by considering a world economy model composed by the US, the Euro Area, Japan, China, oil-exporting countries, and the rest of the world. These areas are assumed to differ only with respect to GDP volatility which is calibrated based on the 1980-2008 period. The model predicts a wide dispersion in net foreign asset positions, with the highly volatile oil-exporting countries accumulating very large asset holdings. While heterogeneity in GDP volatility may lead to large imbalances in international investment positions, its impact on current accounts is much weaker. This is because countries are expected to move towards their optimal NFA at a very slow pace.
Dissecting Saving Dynamics
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Author : Christopher D. Carroll
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Dissecting Saving Dynamics written by Christopher D. Carroll and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
We show that an estimated tractable 'buffer stock saving' model can match the 30-year decline in the U.S. saving rate leading up to 2007, the sharp increase during the Great Recession, and much of the intervening business cycle variation. In the model, saving depends on the gap between 'target' and actual wealth, with the target determined by measured credit availability and measured unemployment expectations. Following financial deregulation starting in the late 1970s, expanding credit supply explains the trend decline in saving, while fluctuations in wealth and consumer-survey-measured unemployment expectations capture much of the business-cycle variation, including the sharp rise during the Great Recession.
Keep Calm And Consume Subjective Uncertainty And Precautionary Savings
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Author : Barbara Broadway
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Keep Calm And Consume Subjective Uncertainty And Precautionary Savings written by Barbara Broadway and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
This paper estimates the effect of income uncertainty on assets held in accounts and cash, and finds substantial empirical evidence for precautionary savings. Using household-level panel data, it explicitly distinguishes between 'real' income uncertainty the household is actually exposed to, and 'perceived' income uncertainty. It finds that the latter substantially increases precautionary savings above and beyond the effect of 'real' income uncertainty. The effect of subjective economic uncertainty on behaviour has only begun to show up after the Great Recession. The economic crisis appears to have shifted households' willingness to forgo current consumption for insurance purposes. Our results imply that households save above their optimal level especially after and during a crisis, potentially exacerbating the economic downturn.
Macroeconomics For Professionals
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Author : Leslie Lipschitz
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2019-01-23
Macroeconomics For Professionals written by Leslie Lipschitz and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-01-23 with Business & Economics categories.
Understanding macroeconomic developments and policies in the twenty-first century is daunting: policy-makers face the combined challenges of supporting economic activity and employment, keeping inflation low and risks of financial crises at bay, and navigating the ever-tighter linkages of globalization. Many professionals face demands to evaluate the implications of developments and policies for their business, financial, or public policy decisions. Macroeconomics for Professionals provides a concise, rigorous, yet intuitive framework for assessing a country's macroeconomic outlook and policies. Drawing on years of experience at the International Monetary Fund, Leslie Lipschitz and Susan Schadler have created an operating manual for professional applied economists and all those required to evaluate economic analysis.
Exercises In Intertemporal Open Economy Macroeconomics
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Author : Thomas H. Krueger
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 1997
Exercises In Intertemporal Open Economy Macroeconomics written by Thomas H. Krueger and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with Business & Economics categories.
This exercise manual has been revised to be a companion volume to the third edition of "Fiscal Policies and the World Economy" by Jacob Frenkel and Assaf Razin. It includes new material on endogenous growth, convergence, and an extension of the Mundell-Flemming model.
Handbook Of International Economics
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Author : G.M. Grossman
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 1995-12-13
Handbook Of International Economics written by G.M. Grossman and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1995-12-13 with Business & Economics categories.
This reference accords recognition to the recent revolution in macroeconomics wrought by imperfect competition. Grossman and Rogoff (Princeton U.) present chapters by two dozen contributors on two prime areas of research interest: international trade theory and policy (e.g. strategic trade patterns and policies, the relationship between trade and technological progress), and open economy macroeconomics and international finance (covering such topics as exchange rates, foreign lending, and policy coordination). The volume commences with Krugman's overview of the positive theory of international trade, and concludes with analyses of sovereign debt. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR.