Market Based Structural Top Down Stress Tests Of The Banking System
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Market Based Structural Top Down Stress Tests Of The Banking System
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Author : Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-04-10
Market Based Structural Top Down Stress Tests Of The Banking System written by Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-04-10 with Business & Economics categories.
Despite increased need for top-down stress tests of financial institutions, performing them is challenging owing to the absence of granular information on banks’ trading and loan portfolios. To deal with these data shortcomings, this paper presents a market-based structural top-down stress testing methodology that relies in market-based measures of a bank's probability of default and structural models of default risk to infer the capital losses they could experience in stress scenarios. As an illustration, the methodology is applied to a set of banks in an advanced emerging market economy.
Stress Testing At The Imf
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Author : Mr.Tobias Adrian
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-02-05
Stress Testing At The Imf written by Mr.Tobias Adrian and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-02-05 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.
Introduction To Applied Stress Testing
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Author : Martin Cihák
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2007-03
Introduction To Applied Stress Testing written by Martin Cihák and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Stress testing is a useful and increasingly popular, yet sometimes misunderstood, method of analyzing the resilience of financial systems to adverse events. This paper aims to help demystify stress tests, and illustrate their strengths and weaknesses. Using an Excel-based exercise with institution-by-institution data, readers are walked through stress testing for credit risk, interest rate and exchange rate risks, liquidity risk and contagion risk, and are guided in the design of stress testing scenarios. The paper also describes the links between stress testing and other analytical tools, such as financial soundness indicators and supervisory early warning systems. Furthermore, it includes surveys of stress testing practices in central banks and the IMF.
Stress Testing The Banking System
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Author : Mario Quagliariello
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2009-10-15
Stress Testing The Banking System written by Mario Quagliariello and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-10-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Stress tests are used in risk management by banks in order to determine how certain crisis scenarios would affect the value of their portfolios, and by public authorities for financial stability purposes. Until the first half of 2007, interest in stress-testing was largely restricted to practitioners. Since then, the global financial system has been hit by deep turbulences, including the fallout from sub-prime mortgage lending. Many observers have pointed out that the severity of the crisis has been largely due to its unexpected nature and have claimed that a more extensive use of stress-testing methodologies would have helped to alleviate the repercussions of the crisis. This book analyses the theoretical underpinnings, as well as the practical aspects, of applying such methodologies. Building on the experience gained by the economists of many national and international financial authorities, it provides an updated toolkit for both practitioners and academics.
Imf Research Bulletin June 2013
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Author : Mr.Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-06-20
Imf Research Bulletin June 2013 written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-20 with Business & Economics categories.
The June issue of the IMF Research Bulletin looks at the role of IMF programs and capacity building in fostering structural reforms and the economics of Arab countries undergoing political transitions. The Q&A analyzes the neutral interest rate through the experiences of several Latin American countries. The Research Bulletin also includes its regular features: a listing of IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, information on the forthcoming IMF Economic Review and the Fourteenth Jacques Polack Annual Research Conference, and recommended readings from IMF Publications.
Macroprudential Stress Tests A Reduced Form Approach To Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses
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Author : Zineddine Alla
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-03-09
Macroprudential Stress Tests A Reduced Form Approach To Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses written by Zineddine Alla and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-03-09 with Business & Economics categories.
We present a novel approach that incorporates individual entity stress testing and losses from systemic risk effects (SE losses) into macroprudential stress testing. SE losses are measured using a reduced-form model to value financial entity assets, conditional on macroeconomic stress and the distress of other entities in the system. This valuation is made possible by a multivariate density which characterizes the asset values of the financial entities making up the system. In this paper this density is estimated using CIMDO, a statistical approach, which infers densities that are consistent with entities’ probabilities of default, which in this case are estimated using market-based data. Hence, SE losses capture the effects of interconnectedness structures that are consistent with markets’ perceptions of risk. We then show how SE losses can be decomposed into the likelihood of distress and the magnitude of losses, thereby quantifying the contribution of specific entities to systemic contagion. To illustrate the approach, we quantify SE losses due to Lehman Brothers’ default.
Lasso Regressions And Forecasting Models In Applied Stress Testing
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Author : Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-05-08
Lasso Regressions And Forecasting Models In Applied Stress Testing written by Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-05-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Model selection and forecasting in stress tests can be facilitated using machine learning techniques. These techniques have proved robust in other fields for dealing with the curse of dimensionality, a situation often encountered in applied stress testing. Lasso regressions, in particular, are well suited for building forecasting models when the number of potential covariates is large, and the number of observations is small or roughly equal to the number of covariates. This paper presents a conceptual overview of lasso regressions, explains how they fit in applied stress tests, describes its advantages over other model selection methods, and illustrates their application by constructing forecasting models of sectoral probabilities of default in an advanced emerging market economy.
Switzerland
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-06-27
Switzerland written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-27 with Business & Economics categories.
Financial Sector Assessment Program; Technical Note-Stress Testing the Banking Sector
Next Generation Balance Sheet Stress Testing
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Author : Mr. Christian Schmieder
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-04-01
Next Generation Balance Sheet Stress Testing written by Mr. Christian Schmieder and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-04-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper presents a "second-generation" solvency stress testing framework extending applied stress testing work centered on Cihák (2007). The framework seeks enriching stress tests in terms of risk-sensitivity, while keeping them flexible, transparent, and user-friendly. The main contributions include (a) increasing the risk-sensitivity of stress testing by capturing changes in risk-weighted assets (RWAs) under stress, including for non-internal ratings based (IRB) banks (through a quasi-IRB approach); (b) providing stress testers with a comprehensive platform to use satellite models, and to define various assumptions and scenarios; (c) allowing stress testers to run multi-year scenarios (up to five years) for hundreds of banks, depending on the availability of data. The framework uses balance sheet data and is Excel-based with detailed guidance and documentation.
Republic Of Poland
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-07-23
Republic Of Poland written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-07-23 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper on the Republic of Poland’s Financial System Stability Assessment highlights economic policies and development. Skillful policy management and sound fundamentals have allowed the economy to weather the global financial crisis, and the euro area turmoil. Risk drivers include slow growth abroad and domestically, rising unemployment, and declining residential real estate prices. Vulnerabilities lie in interconnectedness with the euro area, and exposure to foreign exchange risk and foreign investors, which in turn may pressure bank funding, especially in the absence of long-term domestic funding sources. Stress tests suggest that vulnerabilities are not likely to become systemic, though some pockets of weakness were identified.