Modelling Inflation And The Dynamics Of Inflation Forecasting In Malawi
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Modelling Inflation And The Dynamics Of Inflation Forecasting In Malawi
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Author : Perks M. Ligoya
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2000
Modelling Inflation And The Dynamics Of Inflation Forecasting In Malawi written by Perks M. Ligoya and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with Inflation (Finance) categories.
Monetary Policy And Inflation Dynamics In Asean Economies
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Author : Geraldine Dany-Knedlik
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-06-21
Monetary Policy And Inflation Dynamics In Asean Economies written by Geraldine Dany-Knedlik and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-21 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.
Decomposing The Inflation Dynamics In The Philippines
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Author : Mr.Si Guo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-07-12
Decomposing The Inflation Dynamics In The Philippines written by Mr.Si Guo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-07-12 with Business & Economics categories.
Inflation rates rose sharply in the Philippines during 2018. Understanding the demand and supply sources of inflation pressures is key to monetary policy response. Qualitatively, indicators have pointed to evidence of inflation pressures from both sides in 2018, with the supply factors, by and large, associated with commodity-price shocks and demand factors deduced from gleaning at the wider non-oil trade deficits seen in the Philippines. Quantitatively, we deploy a semi-structural model to decompose the contributions of various shocks to inflation. Our main findings are (1) supply factors (mainly global commodity prices) played a prominent role in explaining the rise in inflation in 2018; (2) demand factors also contributed to inflation in a non-negligible way, justifying the need for tighter monetary policy in 2018; (3) the size of the estimated output gap (an important indicator of demand pressures) could be larger, when considering the widening trade deficits in 2018; and (4) a delayed monetary policy tightening can be costly in terms of higher inflation rates, requiring larger and more aggressive interest rate hikes to bring inflation under control, based on a counterfactual exercise.
The Distributional Implications Of The Impact Of Fuel Price Increases On Inflation
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Author : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-11-12
The Distributional Implications Of The Impact Of Fuel Price Increases On Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-11-12 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
The Scope For Inflation Targeting In Developing Countries
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Author : Mr.Paul R. Masson
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1997-10-01
The Scope For Inflation Targeting In Developing Countries written by Mr.Paul R. Masson and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-10-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Inflation targeting (IT) serves as monetary policy framework in several advanced economies, where it has enhanced policy transparency and accountability. The paper considers its wider applicability to developing countries. The prerequisites for a successful IT framework are identified as an ability to carry out an independent monetary policy (free of fiscal dominance or commitment to another nominal anchor, like the exchange rate) and a quantitative framework linking policy instruments to inflation. These prerequisites are largely absent among developing countries, though several of them could with some further institutional changes and an overriding commitment to low inflation make use of an IT framework.
The Behavioral Economics Of Inflation Expectations
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Author : Tobias F. Rötheli
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
The Behavioral Economics Of Inflation Expectations written by Tobias F. Rötheli and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with Economics categories.
"The notion that expectations play a key role in economic decision making is a very old one. Over the past 100 years, major advances in the application of this insight in the formulation of economic models have been made in various subfields of economics. The concept of extrapolation, the idea that past observations of a series are the basis for making projections into the future, was present from the start of the modeling of dynamic economic processes"--
Inflation In Emerging And Developing Economies
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Author : Jongrim Ha
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2019-02-24
Inflation In Emerging And Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-02-24 with Business & Economics categories.
This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Linear And Non Linear Financial Econometrics
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Author : Mehmet Terzioğlu
language : en
Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand
Release Date : 2021-03-17
Linear And Non Linear Financial Econometrics written by Mehmet Terzioğlu and has been published by BoD – Books on Demand this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-17 with Business & Economics categories.
The importance of experimental economics and econometric methods increases with each passing day as data quality and software performance develops. New econometric models are developed by diverging from earlier cliché econometric models with the emergence of specialized fields of study. This book, which is expected to be an extensive and useful reference by bringing together some of the latest developments in the field of econometrics, also contains quantitative examples and problem sets. We thank all the authors who contributed to this book with their studies that provide extensive and accessible explanations of the existing econometric methods.
Forecasting Structural Time Series Models And The Kalman Filter
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Author : Andrew C. Harvey
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1990
Forecasting Structural Time Series Models And The Kalman Filter written by Andrew C. Harvey and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with Business & Economics categories.
A synthesis of concepts and materials, that ordinarily appear separately in time series and econometrics literature, presents a comprehensive review of theoretical and applied concepts in modeling economic and social time series.
The Effects Of Monetary Policy On Prices In Malawi
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Author : Ronald Mangani
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
The Effects Of Monetary Policy On Prices In Malawi written by Ronald Mangani and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with Monetary policy categories.